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Odd Lots

Latest episodes

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Oct 25, 2024 • 22min

Lots More on the Ongoing Mess That Is Boeing

Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, shares his expertise on Boeing's turbulent times. He discusses the alarming 40% drop in Boeing's stock amid numerous crises, from fatal crashes to production woes. The conversation highlights Boeing's struggle to innovate while managing workforce challenges and ongoing labor negotiations. Aboulafia also underscores the company's leadership turmoil and its implications for future competitiveness in the aerospace industry, making for a deep dive into the serious crossroads facing this aerospace giant.
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Oct 24, 2024 • 42min

How Banks and Private Credit Became the Best of Frenemies

Huw van Steenis, vice-chair at Oliver Wyman and former global head of banking research at Morgan Stanley, shares insights on the evolving dynamics between banks and private credit. He discusses why banks are collaborating with private credit firms, despite being competitors in lending. The conversation explores the regulatory impacts and new risk behaviors stemming from the Dodd-Frank Act. Huw also highlights the trillion-dollar private credit market's role in reshaping corporate financing and the increasing influence of AI and data in modern banking.
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Oct 21, 2024 • 35min

Why Mortgage Rates Went Up After the Fed's Big Cut

Tom Graff, CIO of Facet Wealth and former bond portfolio manager, shares insights on the unexpected rise of mortgage rates despite the Federal Reserve's cut in overnight rates. He explains the complex relationship between mortgage rates and market dynamics, including influences from the bond ecosystem and refinancing challenges. Graff also discusses how rate changes can be priced in before they happen and the factors necessary for sustained decreases in mortgage rates, emphasizing the need for clearer Fed policies.
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Oct 18, 2024 • 51min

Meb Faber on the Big Bear Market in Diversification and Tactical Allocation

Meb Faber, CIO of Cambria Investment Management and a renowned figure in tactical asset allocation, shares insights on the recent disillusionment with diversification. He argues that traditional diversified strategies have underperformed compared to large-cap US stocks. The conversation explores the evolving landscape of ETF management, the growth of low-fee investment options, and the nuances of tax efficiency in portfolio strategies. Faber also highlights untapped opportunities in international markets, particularly in Latin America.
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Oct 17, 2024 • 1h 18min

Richard Koo and Zichen Wang on What Just Happened in China

Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and Zichen Wang, Pekingology newsletter author, delve into China's recent economic maneuvers amid a potential recovery. They discuss the impact of new stimulus measures on the real estate market and examine the balance sheet recession gripping the country. The duo emphasizes the complexity of decision-making within China's governance and highlights the urgency of reforms in local fiscal management. Can these policies truly revitalize growth, or are they merely a repeat of past strategies?
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Oct 14, 2024 • 47min

Apollo Explains How Big Tech Is Disrupting Credit Markets

In this engaging discussion, Rob Bittencourt, a Partner at Apollo Global Management specializing in opportunistic credit, dives into how tech giants are reshaping credit markets. He explains the shift as major companies seek debt financing to fund AI and infrastructure projects. The conversation highlights the role of private credit in this transition, the impact of government initiatives like the CHIP Act, and the evolving trends in risk assessment within credit investing. Bittencourt also shares insights on how historical market events inform today’s dynamics.
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Oct 13, 2024 • 10min

The ROI Rules of AI: Sirion's Legal AI (Sponsored Content)

Discover how contract lifecycle management software can reshape business strategies. The discussion highlights the transformation from traditional review methods to generative AI and machine learning, emphasizing efficiency and precision. Learn about groundbreaking advancements that significantly cut down contract review times through automation. Insights for mid-sized businesses on leveraging generative AI to harness valuable data and enhance decision-making are also explored, showcasing practical strategies for embracing this technology.
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Oct 11, 2024 • 46min

Austan Goolsbee on How This Cycle Turned Out To Be So Different

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins to share his expertise on the evolving US economy. He highlights the unexpected success of reducing inflation without significant unemployment rises. Goolsbee discusses the shifting focus of the Federal Reserve from merely battling inflation to navigating labor market risks. He delves into the implications of strong job reports and explains why risk management is crucial in this economic cycle. His insights shed light on the delicate balance the Fed must maintain as it addresses both inflation and employment.
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Oct 10, 2024 • 46min

The Ultra-Rich Are Building a Separate World Here on Earth

Atossa Araxia Abrahamian, author of "The Hidden Globe: How Wealth Hacks The World," delves into the phenomenon of ultra-rich enclaves like Dubai and Miami. She reveals how these cities tailor themselves with unique laws and tax incentives to attract wealth. The conversation explores the rise of offshore zones, transformation of freeports into art storage havens, and the controversial practices of wealthy entrepreneurs navigating legal loopholes. Abrahamian also discusses the implications of these parallel worlds on global wealth distribution.
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Oct 7, 2024 • 57min

The Math That Explains How Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds Make Money

Dan Morillo, co-founder of Freestone Grove Partners and former partner at Citadel, dives into the fascinating world of multi-strategy hedge funds. He clarifies the differences among fund business models and discusses the importance of selecting the right portfolio managers. The conversation touches on managing crowding risk with a poker analogy and the intricacies of compensation structures affecting trader performance. Morillo also highlights the balance between quantitative analysis and intuition, emphasizing the value of team dynamics in optimizing returns.

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