Odd Lots

Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, dives into the booming world of prediction markets, discussing the crucial regulatory changes that have spurred growth. He shares insights on Kalshi's strategy to navigate legal challenges, particularly lessons learned from the Intrade case. Tarek highlights how sports markets drive liquidity and how Kalshi differentiates itself from traditional sportsbooks. He also explores potential future markets and the importance of market makers in creating transparent pricing, envisioning a platform where users could trade almost everything.

Don Wilson, the founder and CEO of DRW, shares his insights on the burgeoning GPU market, which he predicts could surpass the oil industry due to rising AI demands. He discusses the vision for a standardized market, the intricacies of compute auctions, and the potential for tokenizing financial assets. Don reflects on his trading career, emphasizes the need for robust indices, and anticipates that most financial instruments will be tokenized within five years, reshaping the future of trading.

Dive into the world of Kindbody, a fertility company that merges spa-like vibes with high-tech efficiency. Explore its rise to a billion-dollar unicorn and the glamorous facade it presents. However, behind the polished image lie disillusioned patients grappling with the harsh realities of rapid disruption in fertility care. Host Jackie Davalos reveals the risks of a move-fast mentality when creating life, inviting listeners to reflect on the true cost of innovation in such a personal journey.

Jack Morris, an AI researcher and Ph.D. candidate at Cornell, delves into the unpredictable nature of AI breakthroughs. He discusses the intricate balance between open and closed research labs, revealing how proprietary data can set teams apart. Jack also explores the complexities of measuring model performance with benchmarks and the distinction between supervised and reinforcement learning. With thoughts on the future of personalization and the challenges of monetizing curiosity-driven research, he offers a fresh perspective on the evolving AI landscape.

Ozan Tarman, Vice Chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank, discusses the fascinating dynamics behind the rising popularity of gold and U.S. tech stocks. He highlights growing skepticism towards U.S. sovereignty driving gold's rise and the tech sector's fixation, particularly on companies like NVIDIA. Ozan also shares insights on the implications of de-dollarization and fiscal dominance, while analyzing the potential of an AI-driven bubble. Furthermore, he emphasizes how daily conversations with various investors shape his understanding of market trends.

Jim Cramer, a well-known television host and former hedge fund manager, passionately discusses the retail trading revolution and advocates for individual stock-picking. He shares insights from his book, emphasizing a balanced investment strategy that combines indexing with smart stock selection. Cramer reflects on his radical past, including his involvement in labor strikes, and critiques the current market's speculative trends. He also offers valuable insights into corporate transparency and risk management for investors navigating today's frothy landscape.

In a fascinating discussion, Michael Froman, former U.S. Trade Representative and current president of the Council on Foreign Relations, explores the collapse of the old global trading system. He dives into how aggressive tariffs and shifting policies have led to a 'polyamorous' trading world, where countries engage fluidly with various partners. Froman also highlights the implications of friendshoring and the economic security tradeoffs that come with evolving alliances, offering a thought-provoking look at the future of global trade.

Henry Huiyao Wang, the founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization, dives deep into China's emerging role in a shifting global landscape. He discusses how China perceives its position amid rising tensions with the U.S. and explores its ambitions for peacekeeping and mediating international conflicts, like those in Ukraine. Wang also addresses the challenges posed by trade frictions and the potential for reforming institutions such as the UN, shedding light on China's vision for a new form of globalization.

Ann Lipton, a law professor and expert in corporate law, discusses the implications of Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package being invalidated by a Delaware judge. She explains why Delaware has been the go-to state for incorporation and how states like Texas and Nevada are luring businesses with favorable laws. Lipton highlights historical cases influencing corporate decisions and the potential risk of a race to the bottom in shareholder accountability. Her insights raise questions about the future of corporate governance in America.

Ryan Fox, a containers and packaging analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, dives into the quirky world of cardboard boxes. He discusses the alarming drop in box shipments, linking it to consumer health and the broader economy. With humor, he reveals how rising box prices contradict falling demand, presenting them as an unexpected economic indicator. The conversation also highlights the challenges in e-commerce packaging and the industry's push for sustainability amid fluctuating market pressures. Get ready to think differently about the boxes around you!