Odd Lots Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech
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Sep 25, 2025 
Ozan Tarman, Vice Chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank, discusses the fascinating dynamics behind the rising popularity of gold and U.S. tech stocks. He highlights growing skepticism towards U.S. sovereignty driving gold's rise and the tech sector's fixation, particularly on companies like NVIDIA. Ozan also shares insights on the implications of de-dollarization and fiscal dominance, while analyzing the potential of an AI-driven bubble. Furthermore, he emphasizes how daily conversations with various investors shape his understanding of market trends.
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Gold Reflects Sovereign Trust
- Global mistrust of US institutions is boosting demand for gold beyond real-rate moves.
- Gold rallies even during risk-on periods because it reflects sovereign trust, not just inflation.
AI Stocks Backed By Real Revenue
- NVIDIA's AI-driven gains feed into a broader market rally that isn't just about hype.
- The rally looks circular but rests on real revenues and capex that support growth narratives.
Treat NVIDIA As A Catalyst, Not The Whole Market
- Watch NVIDIA earnings (notably November) as a catalyst but avoid assuming one stock drives the whole market.
- Diversify because the rally has spread from NVIDIA to other mega-caps and sectors.
