Odd Lots The Cardboard Boxpocalypse and the State of the US Economy
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Sep 15, 2025 
Ryan Fox, a containers and packaging analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, dives into the quirky world of cardboard boxes. He discusses the alarming drop in box shipments, linking it to consumer health and the broader economy. With humor, he reveals how rising box prices contradict falling demand, presenting them as an unexpected economic indicator. The conversation also highlights the challenges in e-commerce packaging and the industry's push for sustainability amid fluctuating market pressures. Get ready to think differently about the boxes around you!
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How Box Shipments Are Measured
- Box shipments are measured in billions of square feet by unfolding each box and calculating its flat area.
- In 2021 U.S. box usage peaked at ~416 billion square feet and is a very large-scale metric.
Grocery Stores Drive Box Demand
- About half of U.S. boxes are used by grocery stores and CPG companies rather than direct e-commerce to consumers.
- Declines in box shipments therefore often reflect stresses in grocery and consumer-packaged-goods demand.
Pandemic Spike Then Pullback
- Box shipments rose during the pandemic then have fallen: first half shipments fell about 2.3% recently.
- Pandemic years saw notable growth followed by a substantial pullback into 2025.
