Odd Lots

Mishal Husain dives into one essential conversation each week, interviewing world leaders and cultural icons. Expect deep, idea-driven discussions that uncover the perspectives of figures like Elon Musk and Keir Starmer. Her blend of curiosity and tenacity brings out surprising insights, shedding light on how these influencers perceive the rapidly changing world around them.

Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, shares insights from her enlightening trip to Alaska. She discusses how local economic conversations inform Federal Reserve decisions, emphasizing the unique challenges faced by Alaskan industries like steel and shipping. Port officials highlight the impact of tariffs on costs and supply chain vulnerabilities, while Daly reflects on the delicate balance of price hikes for consumers. The critical role of Anchorage as a cargo hub and the complexities of its economy reveal a fascinating intersection of local and national economic issues.

Peter Harrell, a policy expert on industrial and economic security, dives into the Trump administration's novel approach of taking equity stakes in American companies like Intel. He explores the legal basis for this strategy and discusses the advantages and challenges of being a minority shareholder. Harrell explains the mechanics of these deals, their implications for corporate governance, and how they compare to China’s state capitalism. The conversation also touches on the risks and potential future of government ownership in U.S. companies.

Greg Makoff, an expert on Argentina’s intricate debt history and author of 'Default,' dives deep into the nation's recurring bailouts, including the latest $40 billion support deal from the U.S. He discusses why Argentina struggles with sustainability, highlighting political overspending and the influence of Peronism. Makoff also examines Javier Milei's austerity measures and the challenges of implementing reforms. He provides insight into the implications of Argentina's economic strategies and the role of external funding, all while predicting the potential for lasting change.

Andrew Ross Sorkin, editor of DealBook and co-host of CNBC's Squawk Box, dives into the tumultuous world of the 1929 stock market crash. He discusses how retail speculation echoes today, drawing parallels to current AI investment mania. Sorkin highlights the cultural impact of the 1920s boom, intriguing characters like Charles Mitchell, and the role of margin lending. He also reflects on the aftermath of the crash, policy missteps, and the lasting scars left on society, providing lessons that resonate in today's volatile market.

John Ganz, an insightful author and historian, dives into the fascinating panic of the 1980s over Japan's economic rise, which permeated pop culture through films and literature. He explores how fears of Japanese dominance were rooted in military and economic concerns, and compares them with today’s anxiety over China. Ganz explains how the Japan panic faded after the economic bubble burst, influencing political narratives and populism, while reflecting on the lasting impact of these cultural and economic shifts.

Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, and Jamie Rush, Director of Global Economics, dive deep into the intricacies of the natural rate of interest. They discuss how factors like deglobalization and fiscal policies have driven the cost of borrowing higher since 2019. The duo explains the significance of R-star and its impact on investment and saving behaviors. Moreover, they explore the influence of AI on interest rates and asset prices, alongside geopolitical shifts affecting foreign demand for Treasuries. Their insights shed light on the evolving economic landscape.

James Van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research, dives deep into the evolving landscape of AI infrastructure. He shares insights from his recent visit to OpenAI's massive Stargate data center in Abilene, Texas, detailing how companies like Oracle, NVIDIA, and Saudi investors are fueling its growth. Discussions also cover the complex financing structures supporting these mega projects, energy needs, and potential risks of an AI bubble. Plus, he explores emerging trends in robotics and storage that are poised to reshape the market!

Joe Abate, head of macro strategy at SMBC Nikko and former bank analyst, dives into the Fed's evolving policies. He discusses the shift from a scarce-reserve to an abundant-reserve framework, highlighting its impact on the Fed funds market. Abate explores Lorie Logan's proposal for a new target rate, potentially moving toward tri-party repo. He also addresses the rising costs of liquidity, the implications of a large Fed balance sheet, and how stablecoins could influence short-term markets. Tune in for fresh insights on the changing landscape of finance!

Terry Duffy, Chairman and CEO of CME Group, dives into the exchange's shift to attract retail traders, highlighting a new partnership with FanDuel. He discusses cutting-edge technologies that level the playing field and the mechanics of shorter event contracts. Duffy emphasizes the importance of regulation and education for retail participants, while voicing concerns over political prediction markets. He also examines the competitive landscape, implications of a government shutdown on markets, and the blending of retail and institutional trading strategies.