Odd Lots

Bill Demchak, CEO of PNC Financial and leader of a major national bank, talks strategy and scale. He discusses why branch density still matters, the bank’s cautious M&A stance, how regulation shapes competition, and practical AI uses for document reading and workflow automation. Short, clear takes on growth, integration, and modern banking infrastructure.

Michael Zawadzki, Global CIO for Blackstone Credit and Insurance, dives into the explosive growth of private credit over the last two decades. He discusses how large-scale direct lending has shaped AI financing, emphasizing the high demand for capital in digital infrastructure. Michael highlights the advantages of scale in securing major deals and the evolution of risk management within private lending. He addresses the competitive landscape, future trends, and the advantages that insurers find in private credit assets. The conversation also touches on the role of AI tools in the investment process.

Emmanuel Roman, CEO of PIMCO and seasoned fixed-income investor, shares insights on the current market dynamics, including the 'Sell America' trade and its implications. He discusses Japan's economic landscape and rising yields, while arguing for the attractiveness of US fixed income over equities. Roman also delves into PIMCO's innovative use of AI for operational efficiency and compliance, and expresses skepticism about gold's long-term value. He emphasizes the need for more housing in the US and highlights growth opportunities in Asia and the Gulf.

Noah Brier, co-founder of Alephic and an early AI practitioner, dives into the buzz surrounding Claude Code. He explains its unique capabilities like local integration, which enhances automation and reduces setup friction. The discussion highlights whether Claude Code could imply AGI, its evolution from tools like Copilot, and how it enables richer workflows through persistent skills. Noah also addresses the impact on software roles, the potential threat to traditional SaaS, and the democratization of coding for non-experts.

Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, offers a unique perspective on Iran's current civil unrest and financial crisis. He discusses the challenges of gathering accurate information due to severe internet blackouts. Wojtal explains that this wave of protests is fueled by economic collapse and deep-rooted grievances, highlighting the diverse demographics involved. He provides insights into the stock market's unpredictable behavior and assesses the potential for significant political change amidst ongoing turmoil.

Tyler Rosenlicht, Senior Vice President and portfolio manager at Cohen & Steers, delves into the booming energy demand and infrastructure investing. He discusses the shifting landscape of energy priorities, including the importance of nuclear energy for stability and cleanliness. Tyler highlights the intricate relationship between rising utility costs and capital supply, while emphasizing the need for disciplined investment to avoid overcapacity. With insights on global demand projections and underappreciated opportunities, he navigates the complexities of modern energy markets.

Lev Menand, a law professor at Columbia Law School and author of The Fed Unbound, dives into the escalating tension between the Federal Reserve and the White House. He discusses the implications of the DOJ's subpoena of Jerome Powell, framing it as a dangerous political maneuver. Menand explains the potential chilling effects on government officials and challenges to Fed independence. The conversation also touches on the unique dynamics of upcoming court cases involving Fed Governor Lisa Cook and the strategic motivations behind these legal battles.

Cullen Roche, Founder and CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Your Perfect Portfolio, discusses modern portfolio construction. He critiques the traditional 60/40 portfolio in light of recent market challenges and highlights the importance of aligning assets to personal circumstances. Cullen dives into investor psychology during downturns and suggests that income stability determines risk capacity. He introduces the concept of the forward-cap approach, emphasizing macro trends and the simplicity of a three-fund model while advocating for tailored investment strategies.

In some sense, the arrest of Maduro is nothing unusual. For over 200 years, the US viewed the entirety of the Western hemisphere as its legitimate domain for intervention. And of course, there's a long history of the US getting involved with Latin America specifically. But what is the Monroe Doctrine? And how does Trump's foreign policy fit into it. On this episode, we speak with Greg Grandin, a professor of history at Yale and author of America, América. Greg has extensively researched American activity in Latin America across his career. He explains the historical patterns of when America asserts its dominance in the region, and how that fits into other American policy priorities both abroad and at home. Read more:Post-Maduro 124% Rally Stuns Venezuela’s Battered Stock ExchangeTrump’s Team Orders Big Oil Into Venezuela: ‘Do It for Our Country’ Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lee Buchheit, a seasoned sovereign debt lawyer with extensive experience in complex debt restructurings, dives into Venezuela's staggering $170 billion mess. He explores the heated debates surrounding who should bear the burden of this debt and discusses the implications of 'odious debt' claims. Lee also shares insights from past restructurings, such as Iraq, while addressing the role of hedge funds in the current crisis. With U.S. sanctions complicating matters, Buchheit offers creative solutions for potential recovery and restoration.