Odd Lots

Vineer Bhansali, CIO and founder of LongTail Alpha, shares his extensive knowledge of hedging against left tail outcomes while recalling his time at PIMCO with Bill Gross. He discusses the complexities of tail risk hedging, emphasizing the critical need to understand specific portfolio risks. Bhansali identifies the loss of Federal Reserve independence as a significant danger for today's markets. He also dives into the challenges of navigating market volatility and the importance of asset rebalancing in portfolio construction.

Rob Kaplan, the former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and current vice chairman of Goldman Sachs, shares fascinating insights on the Fed's path for interest rates and the macroeconomic landscape. He discusses the escalating AI race between the U.S. and China, along with the evolving dynamics of globalization that appear to be advancing without U.S. leadership. Kaplan also delves into the complexities of Federal Reserve independence amid political influences, and how these factors shape economic predictions and market responses.

Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center specializing in military strategy, discusses the recent military parade in Beijing and China's advancing air force capabilities. She delves into the significance of new 6th generation fighter jets and the ongoing competition with the U.S. for air supremacy. The conversation also touches on how conflicts like India-Pakistan provide insights into military hardware performance, the challenges of military procurement, and the dynamics of global defense contracts. It's a fascinating look at the complexities of modern aerial warfare.

In this engaging conversation, Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner at Lux Capital, dives into the complexities of the current AI boom. He shares insights on the precarious balance of market valuations as companies like Nvidia soar, while some startups face talent exodus. Wolfe discusses the evolving relationship between venture capitalists and founders, emphasizing the importance of aligned incentives. He also examines the risks posed to Silicon Valley's social contract amid the tech transformation, highlighting both opportunities and looming challenges in the industry.

Joe Weisenthal, co-host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots, and Sam Sanders, cultural commentator and host of the Sam Sanders Show, dive into the intriguing world of tariffs and their impact on markets. They question President Trump's claim about tariffs and the stock market. Sanders highlights the success of Netflix's K-Pop Demon Hunters, discussing its cultural resonance and innovative storytelling. The conversation further explores Hollywood's need for creative risks amid shifting audience preferences. Together, they unravel the connections between economics and pop culture.

Steven Englander, the Global Head of G10 FX Research and North America Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, dives into the peculiarities of the current labor market. He discusses the low unemployment rate and the puzzling slowdown in job creation, pointing to the complexities in interpreting non-farm payroll data. Englander also examines bond market stress, especially in Europe, and the evolving role of immigration, demographics, and AI in the workforce. His insights highlight the challenges of translating data into effective policy.

Julie Margetta Morgan, President of The Century Foundation and a former CFPB employee, dives into the booming Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market. She explores how BNPL is reshaping consumer credit by offering a modern alternative to traditional financing. Julie discusses the surge in popularity linked to pandemic spending behaviors, the complexities of credit reporting, and concerns around hidden financial risks. Insights into how fintechs are navigating the regulatory landscape and leveraging consumer trends make this conversation particularly eye-opening.

Dan Wang, a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover History Lab and author of 'Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future,' dives into China's rapid economic ascent. He discusses key contrasts between U.S. and Chinese development approaches, revealing China's impressive infrastructure growth alongside market challenges. Wang explores the solar energy sector's debt issues, the impact of evolving policies on entrepreneurship, and the competitive AI landscape between the U.S. and China, emphasizing China’s complex political and economic dynamics.

Annie Massa, a Bloomberg Wealth reporter, joins the discussion about how the engagement of Taylor Swift and NFL star Travis Kelsey has ignited a surge in prediction markets. The conversation dives into the ethics of betting on celebrity futures and the rapid rise of online platforms dedicated to such predictions. They further explore regulatory challenges these markets face, including legal issues like an FBI raid, while shedding light on the broader societal impacts and biases within prediction trades. Tune in for a fascinating look at pop culture's influence on finance!

Emi Nakamura, a UC Berkeley professor and author of 'Beyond the Taylor Rule,' explores the evolving landscape of central banking in the wake of post-Covid inflation. She discusses the significance of central bank credibility in managing inflation and how historical success allows central banks to break from strict Taylor Rule guidelines. Nakamura also analyzes the lessons learned from various central banks' responses to recent economic pressures, emphasizing the balance of monetary policy in maintaining economic stability for the future.