Odd Lots Jerry Neumann on the Problem With Investing in AI Right Now
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Nov 12, 2025 
In this conversation, Jerry Neumann, a retired venture capitalist and Columbia Business School professor, challenges the notion that AI will lead to instant wealth for investors. He draws compelling parallels between AI and the historical containerization boom, warning that early adopters often miss out on real profits. Neumann discusses the importance of system-level innovations over individual tech, the evolving landscape of venture capital, and the potential for future winners in knowledge-intensive industries. His insights underscore the need for patience in navigating AI investments.
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Value Creation ≠ Value Capture
- AI will likely create huge societal value but not necessarily funnel that value to early investors or founders.
- Distinguish value creation from value capture when evaluating AI opportunities.
Sealand Founder Sold Early
- Sealand's founder invented container shipping by repackaging a trucking idea into a box system and sold early to a larger firm.
- That early sale captured his wealth while incumbents later scaled the system.
Systems Make Technologies Revolutionary
- Revolutionary technologies succeed when integrated into systems, not as isolated inventions.
- The hard part is building the system that makes the tech useful at scale.
