Odd Lots

Why Paul Kedrosky Says AI Is Like Every Bubble All Rolled Into One

495 snips
Nov 14, 2025
In this discussion, Paul Kedrosky, a venture investor and tech cycle analyst, dives into the current AI landscape, likening it to a 'meta bubble' that combines elements from past bubbles like real estate and tech. He argues that the significant spending on AI, including massive data center investments, is unsustainable. Kedrosky explains intricate financial mechanisms like SPVs and highlights risks associated with GPU assets and securitization. With contrasting insights on US and China’s strategies, he prompts a reevaluation of AI's future profitability and potential macroeconomic impacts.
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INSIGHT

AI Is A Meta Bubble

  • The AI boom combines real estate, tech, loose credit, and government backstop into a single "meta bubble."
  • Paul Kedrosky argues this unique mix makes a soft landing unlikely and amplifies systemic risk.
INSIGHT

SPVs Mask Real Debt Risks

  • SPVs let firms raise capital for data centers while keeping debt off their balance sheets.
  • Kedrosky warns complex SPV terms hide future ownership and recourse risks that currently attract little scrutiny.
INSIGHT

GPU Lifespans Are Much Shorter

  • GPUs used for model training degrade fast because they run 24/7, giving them 18 months to two year useful lives.
  • That short asset life clashes with longer loan durations and skews depreciation schedules and refinancing needs.
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