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GM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul Donovan
Dec 11, 2024
Join Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, as he navigates the tangled web of economic data and public perception. He discusses the structural challenges facing Europe, questioning if current pessimism is exaggerated. Donovan highlights the impact of mismeasured data on our understanding of economic health, and examines the implications of U.S. tariffs on inflation and Federal Reserve policy. He also draws intriguing parallels between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation, providing deep insights into global economic trends.
01:04:55
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Quick takeaways
- Consumer psychology significantly distorts perceptions of inflation, leading to exaggerated feelings of rising costs despite stable prices.
- Europe's economic landscape is undermined by demographic challenges and political dynamics, which may amplify pessimism about growth potential.
Deep dives
Perception of Inflation and Consumer Behavior
Consumers often associate the price of everyday items, like a Snickers bar, with inflation, creating a distorted perception of economic conditions. If a product that previously cost two euros now costs three, individuals may feel that inflation is out of control despite the price being stable for a significant period. This mental benchmark influences consumer behavior and contributes to a persistent feeling of rising costs, even when actual inflation rates have decreased. Understanding how consumer psychology affects economic perception is crucial for accurate assessments of inflation and financial health.
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