The Rate Guy

On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we examine today's Fed meeting, the dissents, the jobs realization, J Powell's press conference and what it all means for current market conditions and in 2026.

This week features a humorous comparison between the chaotic searches for leadership at Penn State and the Federal Reserve. Expect a potential 25 basis points cut as JP discusses the historical context and possible dissenters. He also outlines the implications of appointing Kevin Hassett as the new Fed chair and forecasts Powell's cautious messaging going forward. Additionally, there's a looming Supreme Court case that could impact Fed independence, while JP shares insights on the rate outlook for 2026. Plus, don’t miss his ongoing wager on Tiger Woods!

In a comedic Thanksgiving twist, JP shares his gratitude, mixed with sarcasm. He cheers the departure of Penn State's coach and discusses Japan's massive stimulus package that offers attractive bond yields. Political drama unfolds with reactions to Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation. JP humorously critiques the Cowboys' discipline antics while celebrating Philly kids' rivalry traditions. Plus, insights on the Atlanta Fed's strong GDP outlook and a surprising tribute to Jay Powell make for an engaging discussion.

Join JP as he shares his love for Texas, minus the lobster mac & cheese. Dive into the latest private-sector jobs data, dissecting ADP’s surprising rebound and the mixed signals from smaller payroll providers. Discover how labor market trends, particularly part-time shifts, signal potential recession risks. The discussion spans the future of interest rates, with a sharp focus on a binary outlook for 2026, and how Fed actions hinge on labor health. Plus, insights on the psychological effects of a government shutdown and holiday spending!

Join in for an analysis of surprising comments from Powell about December rate cuts being uncertain. Hear about the market's sharp reaction to his remarks and how they shifted yield expectations. Delve into the core PCE inflation excluding tariffs, which Powell suggests hovers around 2.3%. Plus, learn why the Fed is prioritizing job trends over inflation rates in their decision-making process. It’s a fascinating look into the current economic landscape!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA's "thorough investigation" didn't find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to cutting below 3%, and what each means for borrowers. We also talk about the impact on fixed rates, swaps and caps.

On this epidode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down this Thursday's CPI release — why the market will probably react even though it's full of noise, what could drive the 10-year Treasury to 3.62%, and the one signal that could tell us the Fed won't cut rates at the next meeting.

The discussion kicks off with whether the Fed will meet amid a government shutdown, highlighting its operational independence. Insights on how Fed decisions are made without fresh data reveal intriguing strategies in play. Potential Fed cuts this year and next are predicted, alongside their implications for the 10-year Treasury yields. The speakers argue that job market shifts drive Fed decisions more than inflation. Lastly, they tackle misconceptions around Treasury demand, asserting the U.S. remains a financial 'mattress' despite challenges.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen. For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter. And to see what JP's been up to in his spare time check out www.FireJamesFranklin.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the aftermath of the Fed Meeting and break down how we think it will affect markets and how people are borrowing.