The Rate Guy

Join in for an analysis of surprising comments from Powell about December rate cuts being uncertain. Hear about the market's sharp reaction to his remarks and how they shifted yield expectations. Delve into the core PCE inflation excluding tariffs, which Powell suggests hovers around 2.3%. Plus, learn why the Fed is prioritizing job trends over inflation rates in their decision-making process. It’s a fascinating look into the current economic landscape!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA's "thorough investigation" didn't find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to cutting below 3%, and what each means for borrowers. We also talk about the impact on fixed rates, swaps and caps.

On this epidode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down this Thursday's CPI release — why the market will probably react even though it's full of noise, what could drive the 10-year Treasury to 3.62%, and the one signal that could tell us the Fed won't cut rates at the next meeting.

The discussion kicks off with whether the Fed will meet amid a government shutdown, highlighting its operational independence. Insights on how Fed decisions are made without fresh data reveal intriguing strategies in play. Potential Fed cuts this year and next are predicted, alongside their implications for the 10-year Treasury yields. The speakers argue that job market shifts drive Fed decisions more than inflation. Lastly, they tackle misconceptions around Treasury demand, asserting the U.S. remains a financial 'mattress' despite challenges.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen. For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter. And to see what JP's been up to in his spare time check out www.FireJamesFranklin.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the aftermath of the Fed Meeting and break down how we think it will affect markets and how people are borrowing.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed's credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren't) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026. We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so important. As promised here is the Cap/Floor Pricer from our website. https://www.pensford.com/resources/cap-and-floor-pricer

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss jobs and the shocking data that came out last week and how that (and a few other factors) will influence the Fed with their decision on cutting rate next week.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we urge you to forget CPI—the Fed's watching jobs. Unemployment at 4.2% isn't the good news it looks like. We explain r*, clear up the natural vs. neutral rate confusion, and connect the dots from D.C.'s deficit and the 10 Yr Treasury.

The hosts dive into J Money's compelling address at Jackson Hole, unpacking key insights on monetary policy. They highlight the Fed chair’s significant speech, discussing the interplay of political pressures, labor market fluctuations, and inflation. There's an intriguing exploration of how central bank commentary influences interest rates and employment dynamics. The conversation shifts to future projections, assessing potential rate cuts and their impact on sectors like multifamily housing, all while navigating the complexities of today's economic landscape.