The Rate Guy

On this episod of The Rate Guy we discuss Jobs, Inflation, GDP and what options traders are flocking to at the moment and why. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months.

Dive into the latest jobs report as hosts analyze what the numbers really mean for inflation and why the Fed is hesitant on rate cuts. Experience a colorful Twitter showdown featuring public figures on economic contradictions, adding some humor to serious economic matters. Discover shocking revisions in job growth statistics and their impacts on workforce sentiment. Plus, get insights into the curious behavior of the U.S. Treasury market and speculations leading up to the Fed's meeting!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the mini-revolt happening at the long end of the curve, how tariffs are effecting the deficit and how sometimes the best cure for inflation is inflation.   

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about consumer sentiment of the top 10%, inflation's current status and how tarrifs are affecting the economy as a whole. 

This discussion dives into the latest economic indicators, revealing unexpected trends in inflation and GDP. The possibility of a rate cut creates a thrilling 50/50 uncertainty as the Fed convenes. They analyze the peculiar impact of tariffs, noting it's a shock the market hasn't faced before. With insights from experts like Mohammed El-Erian, the hosts unravel the complexities of today's economic landscape. Job growth concerns are examined, alongside casual commentary on how these factors affect personal finances and market behavior.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the back and forth around Jerome Powell's fate and the impact that has had on the Market. After that we have a special interview with the great friend and even better sport, Jon Morris aka JMo. We hear his thoughts on career, current markets and where our industry is headed. 

This discussion dives into the recent spike in 10-year Treasury yields and the slipping dollar, debunking myths about the U.S. dollar's imminent decline. The hosts explore the essence of basis swap unwinds and the potential impact of economic sentiment and geopolitical tensions. They analyze the Federal Reserve's next moves and how investor strategies, including those from icons like Warren Buffett, shape market dynamics. The interplay of fear, speculation, and financial stability reveals a complex landscape in today's economy.

This discussion dives deep into the impact of tariffs on inflation and consumer behavior, particularly focusing on everyday expenses like coffee. It raises concerns about stock market performance and the risks of a trade war. The intricacies of reshoring manufacturing are explored, highlighting job transitions and the challenges of restarting domestic production. Additionally, the conversation reflects on supply chain vulnerabilities exposed by the pandemic and the complexity of the current economic climate, including potential interest rate cuts amid conflicting signals.