The Rate Guy Quick Fed Meeting Take Aways
Oct 29, 2025
Join in for an analysis of surprising comments from Powell about December rate cuts being uncertain. Hear about the market's sharp reaction to his remarks and how they shifted yield expectations. Delve into the core PCE inflation excluding tariffs, which Powell suggests hovers around 2.3%. Plus, learn why the Fed is prioritizing job trends over inflation rates in their decision-making process. It’s a fascinating look into the current economic landscape!
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Episode notes
Acapella Special Edition
- JP and Sarah record a special acapella edition without the usual newsletter.
- They note there's little economic data this week, so the Fed meeting dominated the discussion.
Powell Muddies December Cut Odds
- Jerome Powell explicitly said a December rate cut is far from a foregone conclusion.
- Markets interpreted this as an intentional move to rein in December cut expectations.
Adjust Positions When Fed Shifts Language
- Expect market volatility after Fed language that changes cut odds and adjust positions accordingly.
- Watch yields and option pricing as immediate indicators of shifting Fed expectations.