The Rate Guy A Cut This Week But None Next Year?
Dec 8, 2025
This week features a humorous comparison between the chaotic searches for leadership at Penn State and the Federal Reserve. Expect a potential 25 basis points cut as JP discusses the historical context and possible dissenters. He also outlines the implications of appointing Kevin Hassett as the new Fed chair and forecasts Powell's cautious messaging going forward. Additionally, there's a looming Supreme Court case that could impact Fed independence, while JP shares insights on the rate outlook for 2026. Plus, don’t miss his ongoing wager on Tiger Woods!
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Fed Chair Search As A Penn State Fiasco
- JP Conklin compares the messy Fed chair search to Penn State's bungled coaching hunt full of leaks and reneged deals.
- He walks through fictional picks and reversals to illustrate how speculation damaged the process.
Expect A 25bp Cut This Meeting
- JP Conklin expects the Fed to cut 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting and urges listeners to price that in.
- He warns the decision will likely include several dissents, so market reaction could be mixed.
A Hawkish Cut Can Raise Rates
- Powell may signal a hawkish path after a cut to appease officials who oppose easing and minimize dissents.
- That signal could actually push rates higher despite the immediate cut.