The Rate Guy

This week, the hosts tackle the quirky concept of 'the bends'—where markets overreact, leading to chaos. They dive into consumer confidence taking a nosedive and potential recession signals. Lively discussions unfold about the latest Fed meeting and its ripple effects on spending. Humor meets insight as they analyze employment trends and the unexpected joys in dining sectors. Celebrating five years of podcasting, they reflect on their journey with laughter and gratitude for loyal listeners.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk tariffs, recession, GDP and of course Jobs, and why the number may be scarier that we think.   Here is the SOS Recession Indicator that JP references as well as the sweet cardboard cut out of Saquon leaping backwards over J. Powell! Thanks Craig!    

What if the Fed's inflation target shifted to 2%-3%? The hosts dive into this question while exploring the current state of core PCE and the rising money supply. They discuss the Atlanta Fed's surprising GDP forecast drop and how tariffs play a role in economic shifts. Warning signs in the job market emerge, with layoffs and consumer pullback influencing dynamics. Lastly, the potential impact of treasury yields post-Super Bowl on future interest rates adds an intriguing twist to the economic landscape.

Dive into unforgettable Super Bowl moments, like a pop star's surprising booing and a heartfelt catch with an Eagles player. Explore predictions on the 10-year treasury rate dropping to 4%, with 59 quirky reasons behind it. The hosts cleverly link sports anecdotes to serious economic trends, shedding light on the unpredictable market psychology influenced by unemployment and celebrity impacts. Expect a mix of humor and deep analysis that connects the worlds of sports and finance.

Explore the thrilling parallels between an epic Super Bowl showdown and the world of economics! Discover how inflation maps to star quarterback Mahomes and the role of tariffs is likened to referees. Dive into the dynamics of GDP and the intriguing performance of the Eagles' kicker, reflecting pivotal economic trends. With playful banter and predictions, the hosts mix sports excitement with insightful analysis, crafting a unique connection between game day thrills and market movements!

The hosts delve into the quirks of game day excitement and reflect on superstitions surrounding football. They humorously analyze coaching decisions in the Dallas Cowboys and question political influences on interest rates. Upcoming economic events, especially the Fed meeting, get special attention, with speculations about market responses and oil prices. A lighthearted overview of playoff football adds to the mix, showcasing how politics and sports often come together in unexpected ways.

The hosts share laughs reminiscing about their sunny vacation as they dive into the current economic climate. They review the latest inflation report, noting it's manageable and mostly in areas like airfare. The significance of the Consumer Price Index is explored, highlighting its influence on Federal Reserve strategies. There's a cautionary discussion on interest rates, informed by job market data. The episode wraps with a humorous take on social media's influence, particularly on treasury volatility, while looking ahead to the next Fed meeting.

The hosts dissect the latest jobs report, questioning the idea that the economy is overheating. They highlight key findings about employment trends, shedding light on the state of the labor market. The discussion extends to inflation data, advocating for a broader view of economic indicators. Meanwhile, they explore rebuilding strategies for Los Angeles in the wake of recent tragedies, emphasizing the need for actionable solutions. The mix of personal anecdotes and serious analysis keeps the conversation both engaging and insightful.

The hosts share hilarious holiday tales and chaotic travel experiences while heading to a playoff game. They evaluate past predictions and introduce bold forecasts for 2025. The conversation flows from navigating treasury yields to discussing labor market statistics, highlighting their humorous take on economic forecasting. With self-deprecating humor, they reflect on missed calls, including unemployment rates, while maintaining optimism for the future. A tech solution for real estate also garners attention, emphasizing practical benefits amid the economic chaos.

Anticipation fills the air as the hosts dissect expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting and potential rate cuts. They weave humor into the discussion, even reciting a whimsical version of 'Twas The Night Before FOMC.' The conversation dives deep into monetary policy, inflation, and labor market trends, all while encouraging listeners to keep an eye on future developments. Join in for a mix of festive fun and insightful economic analysis.