The Rate Guy Special Jackson Hole Edition
Aug 22, 2025
The hosts dive into J Money's compelling address at Jackson Hole, unpacking key insights on monetary policy. They highlight the Fed chair’s significant speech, discussing the interplay of political pressures, labor market fluctuations, and inflation. There's an intriguing exploration of how central bank commentary influences interest rates and employment dynamics. The conversation shifts to future projections, assessing potential rate cuts and their impact on sectors like multifamily housing, all while navigating the complexities of today's economic landscape.
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Meeting Recognition And Self-Deprecation
- JP Conklin recounts an LA meeting where an attendee recognized him and said he was funnier on the podcast.
- The host joked that being underwhelming in person might explain not being invited to Jackson Hole.
Powell Signaled Stronger Bias To Cut
- Jay Powell signaled more concern about labor and downside risks than markets expected at Jackson Hole.
- That prompted an immediate market repricing toward imminent rate cuts but Powell emphasized data dependence.
Language That Moved Markets
- Powell warned that shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy and downside risks may accelerate quickly.
- Markets interpreted those lines as a clear bias toward cutting rates soon.