The Rate Guy I Love the Smell of Capitalism in the Morning
Nov 9, 2025
Join JP as he shares his love for Texas, minus the lobster mac & cheese. Dive into the latest private-sector jobs data, dissecting ADP’s surprising rebound and the mixed signals from smaller payroll providers. Discover how labor market trends, particularly part-time shifts, signal potential recession risks. The discussion spans the future of interest rates, with a sharp focus on a binary outlook for 2026, and how Fed actions hinge on labor health. Plus, insights on the psychological effects of a government shutdown and holiday spending!
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Texas Trip And Cultural Clash
- JP describes his fondness for Texas and jokes about its mixed reception to his views.
- He frames his Dallas trip as a mix of proud moments and comic cultural clashes.
The Lobster That Challenged JP
- JP recounts ordering lobster mac and cheese and being served an aggressive whole lobster he named Mamdani.
- He uses the meal as a playful metaphor for capitalism and his Dallas experience.
Private Jobs Data Now Drives Market Signals
- Private payroll measures now matter because official jobs data has been disrupted by the shutdown.
- ADP showed a modest rebound but other private providers showed weak or negative October prints, signaling a fragile labor market.