The Risk Takers Podcast

Rufus Peabody, a renowned professional sports bettor and modeler, shares insights into his journey from working in the pre-mobile sports betting landscape to becoming a top name in the industry. He delves into his unique betting strategies, especially in golf, and highlights the importance of modeling and data quality. Rufus talks about the allure of prediction markets, his market-making approach, and the societal implications of gambling. His thoughtful reflections and innovative strategies make for an engaging discussion that's both informative and entertaining.

Reflecting on the significant changes in sports betting during 2025, the hosts share personal successes and pivots in their betting approaches. They discuss the potential impact of prediction markets while setting ambitious goals for 2026. Key topics include the importance of custom tools, the shift away from recreational partners, and refining live betting strategies. Predictions abound, touching on regulatory changes and the future competition between exchanges and major betting platforms. The conversation wraps up with heartfelt reflections and resolutions for the new year.

Louie Mastro, a veteran sportsbook trader and quantitative modeller, shares insights from his journey at FanDuel to becoming a key player at NoVig. He discusses the intricacies of internal market making, emphasizing the role of accurate simulations in predicting game outcomes. Louie reveals his philosophy on betting, highlighting the 'Five P's' of success. He critiques market inefficiencies and shares hot takes on NBA player rankings. The conversation also touches on the importance of sportsbook experience for budding traders.

In a hot take discussion, the hosts delve into whether 'directionally correct' betting is still relevant. They explore how aging impacts betting performance and efficiency, paralleling it with chess strategies. Kalshi's new parlay-like combos are introduced, sparking conversation about risks. They also tackle the importance of clearer betting metrics over the vague 'units.' Interesting debates occur over market-making strategies and how to manage bankrolls effectively. Finally, they warn about pitfalls in the pick-selling industry and the stigma surrounding gambling.

CSP Trading, a seasoned software developer and expert in prediction markets, shares his journey from early political trading to modern market-making. He discusses his hands-on experiences with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, revealing insights on insider trading risks, sports market strategies, and the surprising liquidity of grassroots platforms. CSP also dives into technical tactics like using bots, scraping odds, and navigating market conditions, while offering advice to aspiring market makers on where to find opportunities.

Dive into the debate of manual versus automated betting, with insights on how hands-on strategies can outshine tech. Discover the secrets of the old Pick6 strategies, from lineup construction to unique position plays. The hosts explore breaking news, including Kalshi’s litigation and Robinhood's exchange launch, along with the implications for prediction markets. Plus, catch a fascinating Q&A covering topics like betting psychology, liquidity signals, and inefficiencies in sports markets. It's an engaging mix of betting wisdom and market analysis!

Pads, a professional sports bettor and co-founder of BookieBeats, shares his journey from poker to live betting after PASPA. He reveals the intricacies of finding valuable edges in live sports and the benefits of joining betting communities like Discord. Pads discusses his strategy shifts from arbitrage to directional bets and highlights common weaknesses in live betting models. He emphasizes the importance of speed and advanced knowledge of the game. Finally, he explores the future of prediction markets and his experiences going public in the betting community.

Discover the fascinating world of sports betting and the lessons learned from posting liquidity on exchanges. There’s surprising insight into the small bet sizes revealing the broad bettor population and how large fills signal sharp bettors. The hosts discuss the competitive landscape as DraftKings and FanDuel enter prediction markets, emphasizing the importance of proprietary projections. Don't miss their take on behavioral trends, market hits, and the potential rise of slot-like crypto markets!

Richard Munchkin, a veteran advantage player with over 50 years of casino experience, shares thrilling tales from his gambling career. He discusses the lost art of embracing risk and reveals hilarious stories about disguises used in the casino world. Richard dives into his global adventures as an advantage player, contrasting safe and risky markets. He emphasizes the importance of discreetly extracting winnings and explains his transition into sports betting, highlighting the need for thorough scouting. His storytelling is captivating, making every moment a gem!

Gamblers often underbet in crucial moments due to psychological barriers. The hosts discuss the impact of emotional pain on sizing up bets and how to strategically take large swings for potential big wins. They emphasize the need to identify one-off opportunities versus ongoing markets while addressing the parallels between dating sites and betting markets. Recent scandals and regulatory pressures in betting are also covered, alongside the benefits of low fees on platforms like Polymarket that could reshape market dynamics.