The Risk Takers Podcast Hot Takes: Is "Directionally Correct" dead + Aging Curve in Betting? | Ep 134
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Dec 17, 2025 In a hot take discussion, the hosts delve into whether 'directionally correct' betting is still relevant. They explore how aging impacts betting performance and efficiency, paralleling it with chess strategies. Kalshi's new parlay-like combos are introduced, sparking conversation about risks. They also tackle the importance of clearer betting metrics over the vague 'units.' Interesting debates occur over market-making strategies and how to manage bankrolls effectively. Finally, they warn about pitfalls in the pick-selling industry and the stigma surrounding gambling.
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There Is An Aging Curve In Betting
- Sports betting skill follows an aging curve: young bettors gain advantages from energy, speed, and hustle.
- Older bettors compensate by building higher-leverage systems, teams, or processes to sustain returns.
Optimize Models For High-Leverage Errors
- A model that is directionally correct can beat a well-calibrated model when leverage concentrates on high-impact outcomes.
- Optimize models for high-leverage bands (e.g., mid-range DFS ownership), not overall metrics like MSE or R².
Be Well-Calibrated If You Make Markets
- For prediction-market makers, prefer a well-calibrated model across the board to avoid being picked off.
- Fill the board without weak links so your market-making book isn't anti-selected.
