The Risk Takers Podcast Sports Betting Legend Turned Sports Market Maker Rufus Peabody Joins | Ep 137
15 snips
Jan 7, 2026 Rufus Peabody, a renowned professional sports bettor and modeler, shares insights into his journey from working in the pre-mobile sports betting landscape to becoming a top name in the industry. He delves into his unique betting strategies, especially in golf, and highlights the importance of modeling and data quality. Rufus talks about the allure of prediction markets, his market-making approach, and the societal implications of gambling. His thoughtful reflections and innovative strategies make for an engaging discussion that's both informative and entertaining.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Old-School Vegas Hustle
- Rufus recalled driving around Vegas placing prop bets and building derivative money-line charts in 2008 when mobile betting and phones were limited.
- He described live regression work between innings for MLB and running to casinos to capture prices before they moved.
Splitting From The Original Group
- Rufus described leaving his long-time betting group after feeling undervalued despite originating most models and revenue.
- He flew to Costa Rica to meet Betgras but declined a large offer due to legal risk and later split from his partners amid emotional conversations.
Course Fit Trumps Raw Averages
- Golf edge emerged from matching player skills to course fit and time-decaying skill metrics rather than raw scoring averages.
- Rufus built round-level simulations and course adjustments to exploit mismatched market pricing.