The Risk Takers Podcast Lessons We Learned "Booking Bets" & FD/DK Defect | Ep 130
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Nov 19, 2025 Discover the fascinating world of sports betting and the lessons learned from posting liquidity on exchanges. There’s surprising insight into the small bet sizes revealing the broad bettor population and how large fills signal sharp bettors. The hosts discuss the competitive landscape as DraftKings and FanDuel enter prediction markets, emphasizing the importance of proprietary projections. Don't miss their take on behavioral trends, market hits, and the potential rise of slot-like crypto markets!
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Average Bets Are Much Smaller Than Expected
- Many fills on prediction markets are surprisingly small, revealing a different bettor demographic than Twitter shows.
- Posting liquidity exposes a broader ecosystem of small-stake bettors and changes makers' perspective on average action.
Opinion Bets Are Rare At Scale
- Most fills are not opinion-driven; it's rare to see large, genuine opinion bets.
- Market activity is dominated by top-down flows, arbs, and recreational actions rather than many independent big opinions.
Use Posted Prices As Free Peer Review
- Post prices to learn from market reactions and use fills as signal to improve models.
- Treat posting as a low-cost peer review that helps identify when your numbers are being picked off.