The Risk Takers Podcast Riggery & F*ckery in the Early Prediction Market Days w/ CSP Trading | Ep 133
Dec 10, 2025
CSP Trading, a seasoned software developer and expert in prediction markets, shares his journey from early political trading to modern market-making. He discusses his hands-on experiences with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, revealing insights on insider trading risks, sports market strategies, and the surprising liquidity of grassroots platforms. CSP also dives into technical tactics like using bots, scraping odds, and navigating market conditions, while offering advice to aspiring market makers on where to find opportunities.
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Transcript
Episode notes
Early PM Origin Story
- CSP Trading started on HubDub in 2008 and re-entered prediction markets heavily in 2016 with PredictIt, betting early on Trump and later Biden.
- He built contacts and a war room of traders which became foundational to his later trading success.
Polling Company Experiment
- CSP and others created a polling company using Google Surveys to try to influence PredictIt polling markets and get included in polling averages.
- FiveThirtyEight exposed the effort and sites disassociated, making the project unprofitable and controversial.
Automate For Speed
- Use programmatic trading tools: CSP built bots to capture negative-risk arbitrage and fast fills on new markets.
- Prefer exchanges that welcome bots (e.g., Kalshi) if your edge relies on automation.