C.O.B. Tuesday

It was our pleasure to welcome back our good friend Roger Pielke Jr., Author of The Honest Broker on Substack and Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, for an insightful discussion on the U.S. Department of Energy’s climate risk assessment report on the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions (linked here). Roger is a Professor Emeritus in the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, where he previously served as a professor in the Environmental Studies department for over 23 years. His research focuses on science and technology policy, the politicization of science, government science advice, and energy and climate. The Honest Broker reaches more than 36,000 subscribers in over 160 countries. We always value Roger’s perspective on the evolving climate policy and energy landscape and were thrilled to visit with him. In our conversation, Roger provides context for the DOE report, including the history of U.S. climate regulation and key milestones such as the Clean Air Act, Massachusetts v. EPA classifying CO₂ as a pollutant, and the endangerment finding under the Obama Administration. He outlines both the constructive discussions and contentious debates the report sparked as well as challenges in climate science discourse where debate is polarized along partisan lines and questions or alternative views are often penalized. We discuss energy demand beyond Western-centric perspectives and the importance of objective, fact-based discussion in balancing emissions reduction goals with realistic energy needs and technological development. Roger shares his perspective on the political implications of the DOE report, including how it could influence the endangerment finding, the low scientific bar required under the Clean Air Act, the need to democratize climate science for broader public understanding, the importance of constructive debate among experts, the risk of overly aggressive emissions policies on energy costs and reliability, and the necessity of balancing climate action with political and economic realities. We explore how rising energy demand drives innovation, the actual outcomes of climate policies versus their intended goals, how the 2009 endangerment finding is outdated and needs updating to reflect current science, Roger’s assessment of the strengths and criticisms of the DOE report, and his recent attendance at the Abundance Conference, where he observed bipartisan engagement and discussions on expanding access to energy and improving living standards. We cover the American Enterprise Institute’s nonpartisan mission and focus areas including technology, science, energy, and higher education, the value of fostering “intellectual hospitality,” the role of experts in democracy, the importance of leadership in preserving institutional integrity, the need for healthier, fact-based discussions on climate and policy, and much more. We greatly appreciate Roger for joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all. As you’ll hear, we reference a few items in the discussion. Steven Koonin’s opinion piece published Monday in the WSJ is linked here. Roger’s post, “What is the Scientific Threshold for GHG Endangerment?” is linked here and his piece on the climate report titled “A Red Team Climate Report: To correct course, we need open, respectful and informed debate” is linked here. For additional reading, Andrew Dessler’s critiq

It was our honor to welcome His Excellency Mohamed Al Hammadi, Managing Director and CEO of the Emirates Nuclear Energy Company (ENEC) and Chairman of the World Nuclear Association (WNA), along with Dr. Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the WNA. H.E. Al Hammadi has served as CEO since 2008 and has led  ENEC in successfully delivering the UAE Peaceful Nuclear Energy Program, focusing on the implementation of the highest national regulations and international standards of safety, security, quality, transparency and non-proliferation in civil nuclear energy. Prior to joining ENEC, Al Hammadi was General Manager of the UAE Federal Electricity and Water Authority and has over two decades of experience in the power transmission utility sector. Dr. Bilbao y León became Director General of the WNA in 2020 and has had an extensive career in nuclear, with over 20 years of experience in nuclear engineering and energy policy, serving in industry, academia, and international organizations. We were thrilled to host Al Hammadi and Dr. Bilbao y León ahead of this week’s 50th Annual World Nuclear Symposium in London (agenda linked here) and to hear their perspectives on the UAE’s nuclear success story and the broader global nuclear energy outlook. In our conversation, we explore the UAE’s Barakah Nuclear Power Plant project and its record-setting progress as a global example for new nuclear programs, trends in rising power needs from hyperscalers and opportunities for nuclear energy to provide reliable baseload electricity for data centers and AI infrastructure, and the growing political, public, and financial acceptance of nuclear energy. We discuss the geopolitical and economic impacts of nuclear development, including national energy security, economic diversification, and industrial competitiveness, the UAE’s willingness to share expertise in project management, legal frameworks, and contracting models, and the growing interest in nuclear from Southeast Asian nations, Central Asia, and Africa. Dr. Bilbao y León previews the upcoming World Nuclear Symposium, designed as an action-oriented, working conference with key themes including making nuclear projects bankable and advancing financing frameworks, and featuring attendees from governments, investors, hyperscalers, manufacturers, and legal and financial sectors. We cover lessons learned from the UAE’s Barakah Plant, including the benefits of building multiple units, standardizing processes, and investing in talent and supply chains, the need for manufacturing capacity, skilled labor, and legal and financial expertise to enable large-scale nuclear deployment, and the advantages of global nuclear partnerships. Al Hammadi shares insights on the evolution of the UAE’s nuclear vision, the role of rigorous planning and standardization in driving efficiency gains, the balancing of government and private capital that enabled Barakah’s on-time and on-budget delivery, and strategies for applying the UAE’s expertise, frameworks, and contracting models to help other regions meet surging energy demand. We also cover the critical importance of rebuilding talent in energy infrastructure, Europe’s shift from decarbonization at any cost to balancing affordability and energy security, nuclear as a national security and grid resilience tool, the need for global collaboration to accelerate nuclear deployment, and the importance of advocacy, education, and encouraging nuclear adoption and awareness. It was a fascinating discussion and we want to sincerely thank Al Hammadi and Dr. Bilbao y León for joining us. Mike Bradley opened the show by noting that two weeks ago, markets were trading sideways in “anticipation” of Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and subsequently rallied to previous highs after Chairman Powell surprised markets with a modestly dovish tone. He observed that last week, markets were trading

This week we are delighted to welcome Betty Jiang, Managing Director of U.S. Integrateds and E&P Equity Research at Barclays. Betty joined Barclays in 2023 after leading the U.S. ESG Research team at Credit Suisse and has more than 15 years of equity research experience, with prior roles at UBS, Illuminate Capital Group, and Bank of America. We were thrilled to hear Betty’s insights on what’s top of mind for investors, key themes from earnings, and a preview of Barclays’ upcoming 39th Annual Energy-Power Conference, taking place next week from September 2-4 in New York. In our conversation, Betty shares why she finds energy research compelling and reflects on the interesting timing of her career, beginning in 2007 during the shale boom years. She explains how her experience in ESG and sustainability broadened her analytical skills and highlighted the complexity of the energy transition. We discuss the value of cross-sector research collaboration and Betty outlines key takeaways from Q2 earnings, including significant increases in free cash flow, shale resilience, a long-term bullish gas production outlook, and a market focus on efficiency and free cash flow discipline. We explore the intersection of gas and power demand and how factors like regional grid dynamics and AI are shaping the sector, the continuing need for baseload power, reluctance in adopting low-carbon gas, the importance of strategic positioning and capability for companies seeking exposure in power markets, and gas price and production outlook. Betty provides an insider perspective on how she navigates earnings season, noting how AI and research tools are increasingly shaping how research is consumed and analyzed, while emphasizing that AI cannot replace deep analysis essential for understanding nuance, context, and cross-company trends. We discuss the tension between short-term shareholder expectations and long-term strategic initiatives, emphasizing the importance of a clear “North Star” and consistent communication. Betty notes that energy sector investors vary widely, and while the E&P sector is generally out of favor with generalists, sustained capital discipline, cash returns, and demonstrated resilience are attracting renewed interest. We touch on the challenge of differentiation in energy companies and how thoughtful execution and innovative approaches can create competitive advantages, the key themes for Barclays’ upcoming conference with over 170 companies currently registered to attend, how efficiency gains and current free cash flow could influence 2026 outlooks, and more. It was a fantastic discussion and we greatly appreciate Betty for sharing her time and insights. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that last week’s COBT theme was investor “anticipation” of the Jackson Hole meeting, while this week it’s investor “expectations” around NVIDIA’s Q2 results/forward guidance. On the broader equity front, the S&P 500 hit another high last week but traded sideways this week ahead of NVIDIA’s Q2 results. NVIDIA expectations are pretty bullish, with most expecting a beat-and-raise quarter, and the only real question at this point is whether NVIDIA’s forward outlook will be bullish enough to satisfy investors. At a $4.4 trillion market cap, larger than all but three countries’ GDP, NVIDIA’s AI commentary and forward guidance will be a market mover. On the crude oil market front, WTI price continues to trade sideways (low-mid $60s) amid continued 2H25 global oil surplus concerns that are being somewhat offset by lack of headway in Russian/Ukrainian peace (leading to possible stiff oil sanctions). On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas price (prompt & 12mo strip) were trading at ~$2.70/MMBtu & ~$3.50/MMBtu (YTD lows). Investor sentiment is still more bullish for natural gas E&Ps, even though prompt natural gas price has significantly underperformed prompt WTI price this year. Mike also highlighted a

Yesterday we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Michael Crow, President of Arizona State University. On Monday, we spent the day in Phoenix with Dr. Crow and his team, learning how ASU has been rethinking and reshaping the traditional university model to better reflect today’s fast-paced, high-tech world. The changes we saw are significant. Michael and his team are bringing innovation and disruption to a space long associated with tradition and stability. We loved the day and were delighted to have Dr. Crow join us for COBT.Before joining ASU as President in 2002, Dr. Crow served as Executive Vice Provost at Columbia University. His book Designing the New American University (2015) outlines the philosophical ideas he shared with us. At Veriten, we think of ourselves as an energy “knowledge platform,” so it was inspiring to talk with Dr. Crow about how to redesign the world’s “knowledge machines”— our universities. As you’ll hear in the discussion, ASU today is the nation’s largest university, with nearly 180,000 students enrolled across itheir in-person and virtual platforms.Our conversation covered a wide range of issues, opportunities, and new ideas shaping higher education. Since 2002, Dr. Crow and his team have worked to transform ASU’s culture and philosophical approach, putting student learning and advancement back at the center of everything. We discuss how technology adoption has played a role, how Arizona shaped the outcome, how ASU expanded beyond state borders, and how the university’s unique approach to funding has enabled growth. Most importantly, you’ll hear how ASU embraces a customer-centric, partnership-driven mindset that is pushing both direction and outcomes. Many institutions talk about changing the world—at ASU, they are attempting to do so at scale. Through new teaching technologies and methods, they are exporting their approach to other universities as well. In a time when elite institutions are often criticized for stagnation, Dr. Crow’s vision is a refreshing reminder of the art of the possible.Turning to markets: Mike Bradley began by noting that the 10-year bond yield (4.3%) remains in a very narrow trading range. Even with last week’s hotter-than-expected PPI report, markets still overwhelmingly expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the September 17th FOMC meeting. He also highlighted that markets will be laser-focused on Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this Friday, a venue often used for key policy announcements on inflation and employment—so expect some volatility later this week and into next. On equities, Mike noted that the S&P 500 hit another all-time high last week but is pulling back this week on a modest (2–3%) decline in the Tech sector. NVIDIA and a few large retailers are the last S&P names left to report Q2 results; after that, markets will likely be more driven by global events than earnings. On crude oil, WTI continues to drift lower (~$62.50/bbl) amid hopes of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal. Finally, Mike highlighted the all-stock merger between Black Hills Corp and Northwestern Energy Group, creating a $15+ billion regulated electric and natural gas utility. We hope you find today’s discussion as insightful and engaging as we did. Our best to you all!

We were honored this week to welcome Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and Jack Balagia for a Special Edition COBT. Senator Hutchison is a Founding Member of the KBH Energy Center at the University of Texas, with a distinguished career spanning both public and private sectors, from bank executive to U.S. Senator to most recently U.S. Ambassador to NATO. Jack served as Vice President and General Counsel of ExxonMobil for nearly two decades before joining the University of Texas School of Law faculty. He was appointed as Executive Director of the KBH Energy Center in 2024. We were thrilled to visit with Senator Hutchison and Jack about the KBH Energy Center’s upcoming Symposium in September and also hear their unique perspectives ahead of Friday’s significant meeting between President Trump and President Putin. This year’s KBH Energy Center Symposium will focus on the future of energy innovation, investment, and security (agenda details linked here). Taking place Friday, September 12 in Austin, the program will cover global energy outlooks, the growing role of nuclear and AI, energy’s ties to national security, data infrastructure demands, capital markets, and media coverage. In our conversation, we explore the geopolitical backdrop of the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, the hope for a Ukraine ceasefire, and the implications for future negotiations involving President Zelensky and the EU. We discuss shifts in President Trump’s stance on Putin since the start of his second term, as well as the Symposium’s keynote from ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, the event’s audience profile and impact, and other notable speakers including Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Rob Kaplan and investor Jim Breyer. We touch on the uniqueness of the Energy Studies Minor Program at the University of Texas (details linked here), the Center’s collaboration with more than 30 energy-affiliated organizations on campus, NATO unity under Trump, changing European attitudes on defense burden-sharing with the U.S., and European relief at U.S. military action to deter Iran nuclear weapon capability. Senator Hutchison shares her perspective on how Putin may have overplayed his hand by not striking an early deal with Trump, the potential for stronger measures against Russia, prospects for negotiation, potential outcomes from the Alaska meeting, the symbolism of its location, and more. As you’ll hear, the Symposium is nearing capacity but there is still room to attend. Registration details can be found linked here. We are excited about this year’s gathering and greatly appreciate Senator Hutchison and Jack for joining us. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that bond and equity markets were focused on the July PPI report, hoping it would match Tuesday’s in-line CPI print and reinforce expectations for an interest rate cut at the September 17th FOMC Meeting. Markets were looking for a PPI print of 0.2%, but instead it came in at 0.9%, the highest monthly reading since July 2022, which pushed the ten-year bond yield up by 5bps (~4.28%). This PPI increase was the first sign since tariffs were implemented that companies were passing through tariff increases and this large PPI print temporarily reduced the odds for a September interest rate cut (especially a 50bp cut) and also looks to have created a short-term headwind for equity markets. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has been drifting lower for the past two weeks, mostly due to global oil supply surplus concerns, which were reinforced this week by bearish 2026 oil macro r