"The Expectation That Everything Has To Exponentially Rise Is Foolish" Featuring Dr. Kruti Lehenbauer, Analytics TX

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Kruti Lehenbauer, Founder of Analytics TX. Kruti is a longtime statistician and economic consultant who has held leadership roles across analytics, data, and research. She holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy and Political Economy and helps organizations audit business data, uncover hidden efficiencies, and navigate strategic planning, AI adoption, and more. She regularly shares thought-provoking insights and translates complex analysis into clear, actionable takeaways. We were delighted to hear her perspectives on interest rates, inflation, tariffs, and more ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.
 
In our conversation, we explore the “panic narrative” around the economy and why the past five years may feel worse than what the long-run trends suggest. We discuss the health of the U.S. economy, whether we’re truly in a unique moment, how rapid interest rate hikes have worsened the debt picture, and why Kruti believes rates should already be moving back toward ~3%. She shares why the expectation that “everything must rise exponentially” is misguided, invoking Joan Robinson’s reminder that “in the long run we are all dead, but not all at once.” We cover what data Kruti thinks the Fed should focus on (employment, GDP, true inflation) versus short-term headlines and political noise, the interplay between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and why productivity and technology matter most for long-run growth. Kruti also explains how tariffs effectively raise real interest rates, how consumers adapt, and the flaws she sees in how we measure inflation today. We touch on why she believes fears of mass job loss from AI are overblown, the importance of adaptation, and her concerns about declining quality in higher education and its impact on high-skill labor and future productivity. We address fiscal versus monetary policy, why overreliance on the Fed is risky, and long-run structural issues including savings behavior, financial literacy, and long-dated household debt. We also discuss India’s role as a rising economic partner and end with the “magic-wand” reforms Kruti would prioritize including leaner government, updated inflation metrics, and policies that expand the economy’s productive frontier rather than over-managing it. It was a thought-provoking discussion.
 
Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that broader equity markets rallied on a rebound in Bitcoin, bond yields have been inching higher, crude oil remains under pressure, U.S. natural gas price continues to surge, and copper prices are hitting all-time highs. The 10-year bond yield inched higher this week to ~4.1%, after trading near 4% last week, on rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner for Federal Reserve Chairman. Bond volatility will likely continue into the December 10th FOMC meeting. The DJIA and S&P 500 were both up on the day but remain flattish to slightly lower for the week, with Technology leading and Energy lagging. On the oil market front, WTI price continues to be under pressure (trading just under $59/bbl) due to continuing concern around an early 2026 global oil surplus (~2-4mmbpd). This bearish oil thesis/trade is very-very-very consensus. OPEC+ convened over the weekend and agreed, as expected, to pause oil output hikes through Q126 and to call for third-party verification of OPEC+ members Maximum Sustainable Capacity for 2027 production baselines. He closed by highlighting that cold weather has finally arrived, spiking prompt U.S. natural gas price to ~$5/MMBtu (while the 12-month strip holds steady at ~$4.15/MMBtu). He noted the remarkable surge in Lower-48 dry gas production, from 108-109bcfpd a month ago to a weekend peak of ~114bcfpd, now settling in at 112-113bcfpd. Jeff Tillery shared a few themes he’s watching heading into the next few quarters. In traditional energy, oilfield services stocks are jumping even as oil prices fall, raising the question of whether the market is signali