C.O.B. Tuesday

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Mike Laufer, Co-Founder and CEO of Kairos Power, for a robust nuclear-focused discussion. Kairos recently marked its nine-year anniversary and has grown to 500+ employees across its headquarters in Alameda, CA, its manufacturing development campus in Albuquerque, NM, and its Hermes Demonstration Reactor Campus in Oak Ridge, TN. Kairos is developing its fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (KP-FHR), which pairs TRISO pebble fuel with a low-pressure molten-salt coolant (“Flibe”) and is designed for modular deployment, including a two-reactor/one-turbine configuration delivering up to ~150 MWe. The company’s Oak Ridge program includes Hermes 1, the first non-water-cooled reactor to receive an NRC construction permit, and Hermes 2, a commercial-scale demonstration plant intended to supply electricity to the grid. Mike earned his Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley, and his undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering from Stanford University. His research included work in reactor safety, design, licensing, and code validation for advanced non-light water reactors. We were thrilled to visit with Mike. In our conversation, Mike shares the early vision behind Kairos, the company’s focus on U.S. electricity markets and building a reactor that can compete on cost, and their strategy centered on iterative hardware demonstrations and vertical integration. We discuss system-level parallelization, developing upstream/downstream “balance-of-plant” elements alongside reactor work to compress timelines and de-risk full-system integration, NRC engagement dating back to 2018, safety case fundamentals, sizing and product configuration, and how the Google partnership supports a sequence of deployments toward ~500 MW by 2035 (Google announcement linked here). Mike offers a realistic view of the nuclear learning curve and what it takes to drive down cost and schedule uncertainty over successive projects, how Kairos structured the Google deployment pathway, and the importance of setting achievable targets. We touch on how SMR winners and losers will be determined by project execution and delivery, not announcements, and Mike highlights common pitfalls in the conventional U.S. nuclear project model, including fragmented roles and misaligned incentives. We discuss Kairos’s centralized “hub” model with clear decision-making authority, its approach to validating partners and execution steps at smaller scale before taking on multi-billion-dollar FOAK risk, and how the organization maintains efficiency by balancing multiple deliverables and hiring “wildly competent” people comfortable with ambiguity. We also cover how commodity inflation and supply-chain depth affect planning, Kairos’s focus on strategic supplier partnerships, particularly in steel, concrete, and precast concrete, the importance of public trust and earning long-term community support, how non-nuclear test systems build real operating capability and flexible operating models, how AI may eventually improve execution and reliability, and much more. We’re very grateful to Mike for sharing his time and expertise with us. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield appears to have temporarily stabilized around 4.2% and is awaiting Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. Most expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, though volatility could ensue if they don’t! On the crude oil front, WTI price has inched up to $62/bbl amid continued bearishness in financial contract length and recent severe winter weather. There’s speculation that this Polar Vortex (which we’ve dubbed the “Polar Pig”) has reduced U.S. oil production by ~1.5mmbpd. On the natural gas front, the Polar Pig has spiked prompt U.S. natural gas price to ~$6/MM

Grant Isaac, President and COO of Cameco, shares his insights on the future of nuclear energy, emphasizing its shift from "maybe" to a crucial necessity due to climate and energy security. He discusses Cameco's strategic approach, integrating all phases of nuclear production and the impact of their recent Westinghouse acquisition. Grant highlights the increasing investor interest as Cameco is viewed as a nuclear super-major with unique assets. He also predicts a significant increase in demand and investments by 2026, driving the need for a more standardized nuclear product.

David MacNaughton, a strategic advisor at CIBC and former Canadian Ambassador to the U.S., shares his insights on pressing global issues. He discusses the central role of energy in the current geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for public-private collaboration. MacNaughton highlights the threats of populism and AI-driven job disruption, urging businesses to treat geopolitics as a core risk. He also outlines Canada’s ambition to become an energy superpower while balancing environmental commitments and market diversification.

Neil Mehta, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, Carly Davenport, Vice President, and Brian Singer, Global Head of GS SUSTAIN, dive into the evolving energy landscape. They discuss how the Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference has expanded its focus, particularly on sustainability as risk mitigation. Singer emphasizes the transition to a 'yes-and' energy supply model amid rising demand, while Davenport shares insights on stock-picking strategies. The trio also addresses the implications of market trends in Venezuela and the importance of infrastructure investment in tackling affordability and political risks.

Today we were thrilled to welcome Governor Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma. Governor Stitt was first elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. Before entering politics, he was a successful entrepreneur. His company, Gateway, grew into a nationwide mortgage company and, through a merger, became Gateway First Bank, now one of Oklahoma’s ten largest banks. In 2018, he received more votes than any gubernatorial candidate in Oklahoma history in his first bid for elected office. As Governor, he has prioritized delivering more value for taxpayers, and his fiscally conservative approach has helped Oklahoma build its largest savings balance in state history. Governor Stitt also serves as Chair of the National Governors Association, which was founded in 1908 to advance bipartisan dialogue, policy innovation, and information-sharing among the nation’s governors. It was an honor to host the Governor for an insightful conversation on permitting reform, power affordability, and the policy bottlenecks shaping the U.S. energy and infrastructure buildout. In our conversation, we explore why states, through the bipartisan work of the National Governors Association, are central to unlocking U.S. competitiveness and fixing bottlenecks that Washington has struggled to address. Governor Stitt lays out a practical, pro-business, free-market philosophy to build more of everything, remove obstacles, and let innovation and capital do the work, shaped by his background as a business leader turned governor. We discuss Oklahoma’s behind-the-meter power policy that allows large users to self-supply, the broader affordability and power price debate, and the need to better educate the public on where electricity comes from. We dig into what’s broken in today’s policy framework, including the lack of a single accountable federal regulator, and how short-term politics and pendulum swings can stall long-term, common-sense reforms. We also touch on the added complexity of tribal sovereignty and federal involvement in energy infrastructure development. As mentioned, the National Governors Association’s permitting proposal, “NGA Letter on Energy Permitting Priorities” (published in October 2025) is linked here. We greatly enjoyed the discussion and appreciate Governor Stitt for his time. Mike Bradley noted the 10-year bond yield (~4.18%) has traded sideways to start the year. December CPI printed in line with expectations, with PPI due tomorrow. If economic reports continue to print in line, bond yields will likely remain rangebound until the January 28 FOMC meeting. On the oil market front, WTI is up ~$3.50/bbl (~$61/bbl) this year despite 2026 surplus concerns. Oil markets have quickly shifted from 1H26 oversupply and Venezuelan oil production increases to rising Iran-related risk, with the potential for a sharper spike if tensions escalate, especially given that institutional investors are currently bearish (Goldman Sachs Oil Sentiment survey) and very short oil contract “financial” length. In equities, the S&P 500 is up ~2% YTD with the biggest sector winners being cyclicals (Energy, Industrials, and Materials). Materials is the best performing S&P sector this year (up ~7%) due to growing optimism that global GDP growth will be headed higher in 2026. The Russell 2000 is up ~6%, which is far outpacing the S&P 500 & Big AI/Tech stocks, and could be an early sign that market breadth is widening. Energy is up ~5% this year with Oil Services up ~12%, Refiners up ~8% and U.S. Oil Majors up ~6% on hopes that they’ll all be beneficiaries of future Venezuelan infrastructure investment and a quick redirection of heavy oil barrels to Gulf Coast refiners. He closed with takeaways from the Goldman Sachs Energy, Clean Tech & Utilities Conference last week including a real sense of optimism despite investors still being most

Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy, continuing our tradition of kicking off the year with his perspectives. Rob has joined us on COBT six times in our history and has earned the honor of holding the lead-off spot in 2022, 2024, 2025, and now 2026. He is a long-time energy analyst and provides unique, thought-provoking, and economic-driven insights into energy research and technologies. Rob launched Thunder Said in 2019 and previously served at Sanford C. Bernstein and Partners Capital. Based in Estonia, he brings a valuable global lens to the energy landscape. One of Veriten’s highlights from 2025 was having Rob join the firm as a Senior Advisor. We were delighted to visit with Rob to reflect on 2025 and explore what the future might hold for energy in 2026. In our conversation, Rob reflects on the shift in the dominant energy-market narrative from net zero and the energy transition (2021 – 2023), to geopolitical security post Russia-Ukraine, and now overwhelmingly toward AI and power demand. We discuss the outlook for sharply higher global defense spending by 2030 and its potential benefits to infrastructure, industry, AI, smart grids, and competitiveness. Rob outlines a broader recalibration of energy “truths” entering 2026 including solar growth potentially flattening, EV growth slowing or declining, the LNG glut narrative being questioned, and oil demand continuing to grow at roughly ~+1 MMbbl/d per year. Rob shares his outlook on global LNG, highlighting a wave of new supply that is frequently delayed, Russian LNG logistics constraints, Australia’s domestic market interventions, and how policy changes in the U.S. and China are contributing to slower EV sales. We explore whether rising marginal coal mining costs in China could translate into higher Chinese power prices, China’s energy strategy and diversification, and the copper outlook, including potential demand headwinds if solar and EV growth slows in 2026, alongside the importance of “primary analysis.” Rob highlights why flexible grids and better utilization are the biggest levers to reducing power system costs and explains his rationale for a more cautious U.S. shale outlook, remarking that oil markets are now influenced less by OPEC policy and more by U.S. foreign policy pressure. We closed by asking Rob for his biggest wildcard for 2026, which he identified as a collapse/fracturing of Russia as a state, with major implications for resource markets and control of assets. It was an insightful discussion and we can’t thank Rob enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us. Mike Bradley and Arjun Murti both joined from the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference in Miami. Mike opened by emphasizing that two of the major market themes in 2025 were AI/data center and electricity demand growth. He noted that most investors still believe these two themes will continue to resonate in 2026, and will probably need to, especially at current valuations. On the energy commodity front, WTI oil price is up ~2% so far this year, while U.S. natural gas price is down ~8% on a warmer weather outlook. Across broader equities, the S&P 500 is up ~1% this year while the DJIA is up ~2%. The best performing sectors so far this year have been energy, financial, industrial, and materials, while the underperformers have been technology and telecom. On the energy equity front, he noted that last weekend’s events in Venezuela have lifted (materially in some cases) shares of U.S. oil majors, large-cap international oil services and Gulf Coast refiners, while E&Ps have been the underperformers. The wide divergence in energy equity performance this week is mostly due to optimism of an infrastructure/oil services/oil production revival in Venezuela which may be premature. He added that hedge funds could be a culprit for these outsized moves mostly because they weren’t positi

We are thrilled to share this Special Edition COBT as our final episode of 2025. Like many of you, we have been closely watching the escalating situation in Venezuela, and we had the honor of hosting former Attorney General Bill Barr to hear his unique perspectives. Bill served twice as Attorney General, first under President George H. W. Bush from 1991 to 1993 and again under President Donald Trump from 2019 to 2020. He is the author of “One Damn Thing After Another” and has held senior roles at Kirkland & Ellis and Verizon. He earned his law degree from George Washington University and studied Government and Chinese Studies at Columbia. Bill is currently a Partner at Torridon Group. It was our pleasure to visit with Bill and hear his insights on the latest developments in Venezuela. In our conversation, we explore the current Venezuela crisis and U.S. military buildup, why Bill welcomes the Trump Administration’s response, and why he sees Venezuela as both a national security threat and humanitarian crisis. Bill outlines narco-terrorism versus traditional organized crime, how cartels use drugs as a weapon against the U.S., and why he views Venezuela as a strategic adversary with deep ties to Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, and Hezbollah. He explains why domestic-style law enforcement doesn’t work inside hostile foreign territory and walks through the long-standing U.S. doctrine of acting when foreign states are “unable or unwilling” to deal with threats to the U.S. in their territory. We discuss lessons from U.S. action in Panama, stopping short in Iraq after Gulf War I, what “if you break it, you own it” means for Venezuela, why Venezuela is the focus now, versus Mexico and others, the role of Russia and China in Venezuela, and how renewed enforcement pressure on sanctioned tankers and oil flows can further squeeze the regime. We cover the effectiveness and limits of sanctions and the emerging quasi-blockade, how the President should think about escalation from a legal and constitutional perspective, Maduro’s options and potential off-ramps, the case for swift, decisive action, how failed regimes drive refugee crises that put pressure on U.S. borders, the potential collateral benefits for Venezuela and the broader region if things go well, and much more. As always, we appreciate hearing Bill’s perspectives. It was a fascinating conversation. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that Thursday’s November CPI report printed much lower than expected, which lifted bonds and equities. On the electricity market front, he highlighted that the PJM Capacity Auction for 2027-2028 resulted in a record price ($333 per megawatt day). The more concerning takeaway, however, was that PJM did not obtain enough capacity to meet future reliability requirements. In energy news, Mike noted that Meg O’Neill, current CEO of Woodside Energy, has accepted the CEO role at BP PLC. On the oil market front, he observed that WTI price appears to have temporarily stabilized in the $56-$57/bbl range. Oil markets continue to be overly concerned with a “perceived” oil supply price glut in 2026, and at the current WTI strip price (mid-$50s/bbl), 2026 E&P budgets will be negatively impacted when they report in the coming months. He wrapped by walking through Venezuela’s past/present oil production (under both the Chávez and Maduro administrations) and the severe economic damage that’s been inflicted under the Maduro presidency. Arjun Murti built on Mike’s comments and reflected on Venezuela’s oil industry in the 1990s, when international oil companies partnered with PDVSA to develop the country’s vast heavy-oil resources under favorable fiscal terms and strong technical collaboration. He contrasted that period with the deterioration that followed under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, as contract terms were tightened and assets were eventually nationalized, contributing to the collapse of Venezuela’s oil sector and the country’s

Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back our good friend Les Csorba, Partner in Charge of the Houston office and a member of the CEO and Board of Directors Practice at Heidrick & Struggles. Les has over 30 years of experience in executive search, leadership consulting, and executive coaching, and he has long been a thoughtful, balanced voice within the energy community. Earlier this fall, he published “Aware: The Power of Seeing Yourself Clearly” (linked here). It’s a fascinating exploration of how confronting blind spots, deepening both internal and external self-awareness, and cultivating environments where candid feedback is encouraged can transform leaders and organizations. As always, we appreciate hearing Les’s perspective and were thrilled to visit with him. In our conversation, we cover why 2026 will test leaders, with fast-changing macro and geopolitical dynamics putting pressure on executives to lead with clarity, agility, and foresight. We explore how to create cultures where people speak candidly, including giving trusted team members permission to call out blind spots, as well as the difference between chain of command and chain of communication, and the importance of leaders being visible, accessible, and in direct contact with all levels of the organization. Les shares what led him to write “Aware” and the research Heidrick conducted showing that across 75,000 assessments, only ~13% of people demonstrated true self-awareness, inspiring Les to conclude that meaningfully raising that percentage could dramatically enhance organizational performance. We discuss internal versus external awareness, how leaders must treat macro/geopolitical chaos as primary inputs rather than background noise, how AI can boost efficiency but may dull self-awareness, and how to build feedback cultures and measure awareness. Les reflects on the early reception to the book and why self-awareness matters not just for leaders but for teams, boards, and personal relationships, why self-awareness is at historic lows, the importance of hiring and building around weaknesses, and how leaders can optimize and fully leverage their strengths. Les emphasizes the need to get outside of your information bubble, seek diverse perspectives, and cultivate the blend of confidence and humility that characterizes the most effective leaders. We close by discussing what’s next for Les, the four forces for energy leaders in 2026 (agility, internal activism, strategic awareness, and foresight vs. forecast), and the most common board weakness, lacking someone who can push back thoughtfully and respectfully. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting the 10-year bond yield was holding steady (~4.15%) following last week’s FOMC meeting. He flagged the dissenting votes for an interest rate cut and suggested the split could foreshadow dynamics under the next Fed Chairman. On the broader equity market front, he observed that markets appear to be losing trading momentum and that 2026 could be a “year of reckoning” for 2025’s market leaders (AI/Tech) as investors begin scrutinizing data center spending and associated returns more closely. In the oil market, he highlighted that WTI fell to a four-year low (~$55-bbl) on continued 2026 global oil surplus concerns rather than any specific event. He also noted that at the current 12-month strip ($55/bbl), 2026 upstream budgets, which will be announced in the next 1-2 months, will likely be negatively affected. On the natural gas front, he pointed out that over the past seven trading days, prompt U.S. natural gas price has plunged ~$1.50/MMBtu (to $3.85/MMBtu) due to a warmer short-term winter outlook. On the electricity front, he noted that 2027+ PJM capacity market auction results will be released Wednesday afternoon. Most investors are expecting prices to again hit the ceiling (~$335/mw), which might serve a

Today, we were delighted to welcome Neil Chatterjee, Former Commissioner and Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Neil served as FERC Chairman from August –December 2017 and again from October 2018–November 2020. During his tenure, he championed several strategic initiatives, including streamlining the liquified natural gas application review and approval process, and advancing the use of technology to mitigate physical and cyber threats to critical energy infrastructure. Prior to his service at FERC, Neil was an advisor to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and worked for the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. He currently serves as Chief Government Affairs Officer at Palmetto, a Senior Advisor at KKR, a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, and a Senior Policy Advisor at the Climate Leadership Council, in addition to serving on the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Board of Directors. We were honored to host Neil at our offices in Houston for an insightful and engaging discussion. In our conversation, we explore Neil’s perspective on the evolving U.S. energy landscape amid surging electricity demand, geopolitical pressure, and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence. Chatterjee explains the unique structure and independence of FERC, emphasizing that this design has helped the agency maintain policy stability even as presidential administrations swing between dramatically different energy priorities. He argues that energy security has become synonymous with national security and that FERC now sits at the center of balancing reliability, affordability, and decarbonization. The discussion highlights how new pressures from data centers, electrification, and reindustrialization are straining a grid shaped by decades of flat demand and policy drift. Chatterjee also reflects on past regulatory controversies, noting that AI-driven load growth may finally push the country beyond polarized debates about “fossil versus clean energy,” because meeting demand will require every available resource, from gas and coal to solar, storage, nuclear, and distributed generation technologies. Neil dives into the operational, political, and economic complexities of meeting this surge in power demand. Chatterjee outlines the emerging challenge of large-load interconnection is how to quickly connect massive hyperscaler data centers without destabilizing markets or burdening consumers, and praises a recent DOE directive that gives FERC flexibility (linked here), while insisting on quicker pathways to power. He details trade-offs such as hyperscalers funding grid upgrades in exchange for curtailment obligations, growing tension between utility and market-based models, and the need for aggressive permitting reform to build pipelines and transmission. He notes that time-to-power constraints favor near-term solutions such as solar-plus-storage paired with gas peakers, while advanced nuclear and new gas capacity remain years away. Throughout, he stresses the importance of depoliticizing energy policy and “empowering the nerds”— letting engineers, economists, and market designers, not political cycles, guide decisions on reliability, infrastructure, distributed resources, and the evolving relationship between front-of- and behind-the-meter systems. It was a tour de force and we greatly enjoyed the discussion. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that U.S. markets are laser-focused on Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. On the bond market front, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to approximately 4.17% (up from 4% two weeks ago) amid growing concern that the Fed may not deliver the multiple interest-rate cuts expected in 2026. He added that a 25-basis point rate cut is anticipated at the meeting and that Chairman Powell’s press conference, particularly his tone and comments on Fed independence,

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Kruti Lehenbauer, Founder of Analytics TX. Kruti is a longtime statistician and economic consultant who has held leadership roles across analytics, data, and research. She holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy and Political Economy and helps organizations audit business data, uncover hidden efficiencies, and navigate strategic planning, AI adoption, and more. She regularly shares thought-provoking insights and translates complex analysis into clear, actionable takeaways. We were delighted to hear her perspectives on interest rates, inflation, tariffs, and more ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. In our conversation, we explore the “panic narrative” around the economy and why the past five years may feel worse than what the long-run trends suggest. We discuss the health of the U.S. economy, whether we’re truly in a unique moment, how rapid interest rate hikes have worsened the debt picture, and why Kruti believes rates should already be moving back toward ~3%. She shares why the expectation that “everything must rise exponentially” is misguided, invoking Joan Robinson’s reminder that “in the long run we are all dead, but not all at once.” We cover what data Kruti thinks the Fed should focus on (employment, GDP, true inflation) versus short-term headlines and political noise, the interplay between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and why productivity and technology matter most for long-run growth. Kruti also explains how tariffs effectively raise real interest rates, how consumers adapt, and the flaws she sees in how we measure inflation today. We touch on why she believes fears of mass job loss from AI are overblown, the importance of adaptation, and her concerns about declining quality in higher education and its impact on high-skill labor and future productivity. We address fiscal versus monetary policy, why overreliance on the Fed is risky, and long-run structural issues including savings behavior, financial literacy, and long-dated household debt. We also discuss India’s role as a rising economic partner and end with the “magic-wand” reforms Kruti would prioritize including leaner government, updated inflation metrics, and policies that expand the economy’s productive frontier rather than over-managing it. It was a thought-provoking discussion. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that broader equity markets rallied on a rebound in Bitcoin, bond yields have been inching higher, crude oil remains under pressure, U.S. natural gas price continues to surge, and copper prices are hitting all-time highs. The 10-year bond yield inched higher this week to ~4.1%, after trading near 4% last week, on rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner for Federal Reserve Chairman. Bond volatility will likely continue into the December 10th FOMC meeting. The DJIA and S&P 500 were both up on the day but remain flattish to slightly lower for the week, with Technology leading and Energy lagging. On the oil market front, WTI price continues to be under pressure (trading just under $59/bbl) due to continuing concern around an early 2026 global oil surplus (~2-4mmbpd). This bearish oil thesis/trade is very-very-very consensus. OPEC+ convened over the weekend and agreed, as expected, to pause oil output hikes through Q126 and to call for third-party verification of OPEC+ members Maximum Sustainable Capacity for 2027 production baselines. He closed by highlighting that cold weather has finally arrived, spiking prompt U.S. natural gas price to ~$5/MMBtu (while the 12-month strip holds steady at ~$4.15/MMBtu). He noted the remarkable surge in Lower-48 dry gas production, from 108-109bcfpd a month ago to a weekend peak of ~114bcfpd, now settling in at 112-113bcfpd. Jeff Tillery shared a few themes he’s watching heading into the next few quarters. In traditional energy, oilfield services stocks are jumping even as oil prices fall, raising the question of whether the market is signali