C.O.B. Tuesday

We are thrilled to share what is now our sixth annual COBT Thanksgiving episode, showcasing and thanking the hardworking people working in energy who make Thanksgiving Day possible. Earlier this year, after hosting Jim Grech, President and CEO of Peabody on COBT (episode linked here), Mike Bradley floated the idea of filming our Thanksgiving episode at the North Antelope Rochelle Mine (NARM). Jim and his team were gracious enough to say yes and made this special visit possible. Our team travelled to NARM in Gillette, Wyoming, and met with the mine’s management and safety teams for an in-depth overview of operations before heading out for a tour. Following the tour, Mike Bradley and Maynard sat down with Pat Forkin, Executive Vice President, Global Strategy and Peabody Development, and Clayton Kyle, Production Manager at NARM, for a fantastic discussion. Our conversation with Pat and Clayton covered NARM’s operations, scale, and logistics as the largest coal mine in North America, producing ~12% of U.S. coal. We discuss the mine’s daily activity, filling 12-13 trains per day each with ~150 cars and ~16,500 tons (>200,000 tons of coal produced per day), as well as coal’s role in the U.S. power mix and Peabody’s safety-first culture and use of technology onsite. Clayton shares his on-the-ground perspective on Peabody’s workforce, the demanding schedules, the team’s pride in tough work and long tenure, and the company’s 142-year history. We explore Peabody’s engagement with multiple federal agencies and the growing opportunity around critical minerals and rare earths. A major highlight was the mine’s extensive land reclamation process including backfilling pits, replacing topsoil, restoring hydrology, and returning the land to conditions well beyond minimum requirements through improved soils, carefully designed vegetation, grazing practices, and habitat restoration that often attracts more wildlife post-mining. The whole Peabody team’s pride in their work was readily apparent and we truly enjoyed the discussion. We can’t thank the Peabody team enough for their hospitality and for the hard work they put in every day. For them, today is simply another workday, and the job still needs to get done. We hope you enjoy this special conversation as much as we did. And for everyone working today at the mine, THANK YOU! Happy Thanksgiving to you all! We are thankful for you!

It is our honor to welcome back Governor Mike Dunleavy of Alaska. We last hosted the Governor on COBT in May of 2023 (episode linked here), and there has been much to cover since our last visit. Governor Dunleavy is Alaska’s 12th Governor and was first elected in 2018 (and again in 2022). He moved to Alaska in 1983 and served as a teacher, principal, and superintendent in Arctic communities before his 5-year term as a State Senator from 2013 to 2018. Throughout his career, Governor Dunleavy has been committed to opening Alaska to new business and investment. We were thrilled to host the Governor to explore the latest energy developments in Alaska, what’s top of mind for the state, and more. In our conversation, we explore Alaska as an “energy laboratory” given the state’s unique mix of energy production, policy, federal lands, abundance of water, technology, and geopolitics. We discuss the impact of shifting federal administrations on Alaska, the scale and federal ownership of its land, and the statehood mandate to develop its resources to fund government operations. We examine the need for legislative reform to address the problems of both “lawfare” and permitting, the growing opportunity around rare earths and critical minerals in Alaska, the benefits of the federal government as an equity partner, mining as a national security issue, post-COVID workforce shifts, and the renewed importance of trade work and skilled labor. Gov. Dunleavy shares his perspective on affordability and energy prices in Alaska, current issues around the need for more gas supply and potential LNG imports, and the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline (AGLNG Glenfarne Project). He outlines his vision for Alaska’s future as a premier location for AI data centers and its ambition to be the data transportation capital of the world. We touch on Alaska’s desire to “create the future” rather than simply react to it, the role and gatekeeping power of the Army Corps of Engineers in 404 water permits, and Alaska’s strategic position as “America’s fort” in the Arctic. We also discuss the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference, with its fifth iteration taking place in May 2026, which Veriten is excited to attend. We greatly enjoyed hosting Governor Dunleavy and look forward to staying in touch. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that markets continue to be volatile from week to week. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield has traded down to under 4% on optimism that Kevin Hassett looks to be the frontrunner for Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Hassett is considered more dovish and so markets are responding positively, at least initially, for the potential of additional interest rate cuts in 2026. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA was also up 500-600 points on optimism that more interest rate cuts are coming in 2026 despite US economic readings being a bit mixed. On the oil market front, WTI price is now trading under $58/bbl due to continued concerns of a global oil oversupply situation in 2026 (anywhere from 2- 4mmbpd) and potentially into 2027. JPM jumped further onto the bearish oil bandwagon this week, indicating that oil prices in 2027 could trade under $40/bbl. He closed by noting that some initial momentum for a Russia/Ukraine peace plan has also weighed on oil prices this week. Thanks again to Governor Dunleavy for sharing his time and for a fantastic discussion. Please stay tuned for a Special Edition COBT episode publishing on Thanksgiving Day! Our best to you all.

Today we had the opportunity to host Jim Bride, President of Energy Tariff Experts (ETE). We became familiar with Jim after reading his report on power generation costs and impacts on electric bills earlier this year (linked here). Jim founded ETE in 2013 to provide expert consulting, data products, and analysis related to retail electricity, natural gas, and water rates. Before founding ETE, Jim served as a Portfolio Manager at EnerNOC and earlier in his career worked as an environmental professional at Tetra Tech EMI, focused on EPA Superfund investigations and brownfield remediation. ETE helps clients navigate the complex world of energy rates by providing actionable data and insights on utility pricing structures to facilitate efficient capital deployment, reduce energy expenses, and enhance the performance of distributed energy resource management systems. We were thrilled to visit with Jim to discuss ETE’s report and the power landscape more broadly. In our conversation, we begin by exploring how rising power prices, especially in the PJM market, are gaining political attention. Jim then provides a brief history of the utility sector, tracing the deregulation movement that began in the 1980s and ultimately reshaped the industry into separate components for generation, transmission, and distribution. We discuss how each of these components, along with public-policy charges like renewable mandates or green standards, contribute to PJM customers’ bills. Jim describes his team’s extensive effort to reconstruct 12 years of utility tariff data to understand which costs have been driving recent increases. Their findings show that while generation costs had broadly fallen for a decade due to cheap shale-driven natural gas and competitive markets, only spiking briefly during the Ukraine-related gas price surge, transmission charges have grown significantly as utilities invest heavily in new and replacement infrastructure under favorable FERC rules. In states like New Jersey and Maryland, public-policy charges tied to decarbonization mandates have also risen meaningfully. The result is that today’s higher bills stem mainly from transmission spending and policy add-ons, not from generation itself, though all components interact. The discussion closes with reflections on aging grid assets, rising load from electrification and data centers, and how future planning and policy choices will shape costs going forward. It was a meaty conversation and we greatly appreciate Jim joining us. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that markets over the last week can best be described as “wobbly” due to growing interest rate cut concerns, continued broader market valuation concerns, and AI/Tech equity exhaustion. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield has crept up recently to just over 4.1% on concerns that the Fed may not cut interest rates at their December FOMC Meeting. The odds of a December rate cut have fallen from ~75% just a few weeks ago to ~50% today. Over the last month, Bitcoin has plunged from a peak of ~$125k to ~$90k, which also implies there’s a bit of a risk-off trade occurring. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 is down ~3% over the last week (down ~5% from recent highs) and seems to have lost its long-held trading momentum. Big6 AI/Tech stocks are down ~11% from recent all-time highs and both the S&P 500 and Big6 AI/Tech stocks are nearing technically oversold levels, which hasn’t been seen since the April tariff scare. NVIDIA will report its Q3 results after the close on Wednesday, and it will be a huge test to see whether Big AI/Tech equities will continue to be the broader equity market leaders. On the oil market front, the WTI price continues to hold the $60/bbl level, with the biggest overhang continuing to be the size of the 2026 global oil supply surplus. The IEA

Today we had the very exciting opportunity to host Håkan Agnevall, President and CEO of Wärtsilä. Håkan assumed the role of CEO in February 2021 and most recently served as President of Volvo Buses and a member of the Volvo Group Management. In his career, he has held senior management positions with ABB and Bombardier in power systems, robotics, and industrial automation. He has extensive international experience, having worked and lived in the U.S., Canada, Thailand, Brazil, Switzerland and Sweden. Wärtsilä is a global leader in technologies and solutions for the maritime and energy markets. In its Energy business, they offer flexible engine power plants, integrated energy-storage and optimization technologies, and services for the whole lifecycle of their installations. Its Marine portfolio includes engines, propulsion systems and hybrid technologies, integrated powertrain solutions, plus upgrades and lifecycle solutions for vessels. We were thrilled to hear Håkan’s perspectives on the evolving energy, marine, and power landscapes. We covered a lot of territory in our conversation, starting with the decarbonization journey in global shipping, how the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) net-zero-by-2050 framework is reshaping vessel design and fueling strategies, and the growing importance of fuel flexibility and efficiency in an increasingly complex regulatory environment as the IMO’s carbon-pricing decision delay risks a patchwork of regional rules across the EU, China, and beyond. Håkan walks us through examples of multi-fuel flexibility, how those choices influence vessel architecture, and how shipowners are adapting to the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime rules, which could roughly double fuel costs by 2030. We discuss Wärtsilä’s energy and power business, which provides baseload and balancing power solutions across the U.S. and globally, how data centers are driving off-grid generation, and how Wärtsilä’s modular reciprocating engines offer speed-to-market advantages through fast ramp rates, redundancy, and minimal water needs. We explore Wärtsilä’s lifecycle service model, the company’s global culture and Finnish heritage, their emphasis on innovation, Wärtsilä’s Sustainable Technology Hub in Vaasa, where thousands of customers visit each month, and much more. It was a fascinating look at the intersection of shipping, power, and technology, and we can’t thank Håkan enough for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting that this week was full of notable events. The first was the imminent reopening of the U.S. government, which will finally allow for the release of key economic data that could influence the early-December FOMC rate decision and lead to heightened bond market volatility. Next, he discussed the COP 30 Conference currently underway in Brazil, noting its key theme of “getting back on track with Paris levels.” He also pointed out Chevron’s Investor Day taking place this Wednesday and shared his takeaways from the Edison Electric Institute (EEI) Conference that he attended over the past few days, where two major themes were “affordability” and “speed to market.” Lastly, he noted this week marks the somber 50th anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior, a tragic event in U.S. maritime history. Jeff Tillery also joined and added his thoughts throughout the discussion. We look forward to staying in touch with Håkan and as always, thank you for your support and friendship!

Today we were delighted to welcome Dr. Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner of Energy Outlook Advisors and Author of the Energy Outlook Advisors Substack (linked here). Dr. Alhajji is a leading expert on global energy markets. He advises governments, companies, financial institutions, and investors on oil and gas outlooks, energy geopolitics, energy security, and the impact of disruptive technologies on supply and demand. Anas previously served as Chief Economist at NGP Energy Capital Management and taught economics at the University of Oklahoma, the Colorado School of Mines, and Ohio Northern University. He holds an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics, with a specialization in energy economics and policy. We were thrilled to hear his insights on the oil markets and beyond. In our conversation, Anas explains why mainstream oil-market commentary often falls short, how OPEC’s role is to match supply and demand, and shares on-the-ground sentiment from ADIPEC including a focus on AI and “energy addition, not transition,” with OPEC’s outlook seeing demand rising toward ~123 mmb/d. We discuss structural demand drivers including urbanization, immigration, rising incomes, and AI/data centers plus autonomous vehicles and the equity valuation puzzle amid inventories and spare capacity. Anas details the “oil on the water” debate including why recent headline numbers were overstated and how different factors from Iranian tankers suddenly broadcasting their transponders, Saudi barrels routed to Egypt but for Saudi-owned storage, Brazilian cargoes diverted to China, slower ship speeds, and others all swell oil-at-sea without adding supply. We explore how Aramco and ADNOC are evolving into global energy companies, why Saudi is leaning on renewables and nuclear to free oil for export, what to make of Saudi rigs and capacity, and why demand analysis should prioritize growth rates over absolute levels given definitional differences and the IEA’s repeated upward revisions. Anas argues the IEA has persistently underestimated demand (including major multi-year revisions), contrasts IEA growth figures with stronger observed U.S. demand, and notes record U.S. crude without shale growth. We also touch on SPR strategy, why Anas believes the large 2022 release worked, his critique of “circular information” among agencies, banks, and media plus conformity shaping bearish narratives, the limited efficacy of current sanctions regimes, and much more. It was a wide-ranging discussion and we’re grateful to Anas for sharing his expertise with us. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the U.S. Government shutdown has reached Day 35, tying the previous record set during President Trump’s first term. In oil markets, WTI continues to hover around $60/bbl and is still being impacted by 2026 global oil supply concerns. OPEC+ agreed to raise December oil production by 137kbpd (consensus) but will pause oil production increments in January, February, and March. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 is down ~1% this week and looks to be losing some trading momentum after a huge recent run. Many of the Big6 AI/Tech stocks reported Q3 results last week, which were generally solid with AI capex spending budgets heading higher as expected. Over the last week or so, these same AI/Tech stocks were down 3-5% (on average) due to both growing valuation concerns and sustainability of this AI rally. These Big Tech stocks make up >35% of the S&P 500 market-cap, and if they sneeze, markets could catch a cold. Aramco reported quarterly results this week and struck a pretty constructive tone with one of its key highlights this quarter being an increase in their natural gas production capacity growth target (by 2030) to 80% up from 60%. On the E&P equity front, gassy E&Ps have been pretty constructive but aren’t leaning into gas growth just yet, while oily E&Ps are taking a more cau

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Obinna Isiadinso, Global Sector Lead for Data Center Investments at the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group and the largest global development institution focused on the private sector in emerging markets. Obinna leads investment teams on valuation and execution considerations, reviews private equity and credit transaction structures, and participates in transaction negotiations in the Data Center and Cloud sectors in emerging markets globally. He is also the author of the Global Data Center Hub on Substack (linked here). His career spans private equity, infrastructure, and real assets. We were thrilled to host Obinna and learn from him on one of today’s most dynamic topics. In our discussion, Obinna outlines the IFC’s role as the private financing arm of the World Bank, shares his background in private equity and digital infrastructure, and describes his current global portfolio focus. He explains the IFC’s structure and mission to achieve commercial returns while ensuring developmental impact, its ~$100 billion balance sheet, and dual role as a lender and equity investor. We cover the IFC’s role in digital infrastructure and data centers, why data centers matter for emerging market development, the IFC’s investment approach and capital structure, and Obinna’s Substack, which tracks and summarizes global data center activity. We discuss global market sizing (U.S. ~30 GW; Northern Virginia 3–4 GW; Europe FLAP-D ~1-1.5 GW each; South America ~1 GW; Africa ~500 MW, ~250 MW in South Africa; India ~1.2-1.3 GW; China ~3-4 GW; Malaysia ~250 MW with ~1 GW pipeline in 3-5 years), the growth outlook with hyperscalers planning to add 30-50 GW in 3-5 years and roughly ~$400 billion capex this year, cost benchmarks ($10-12 million/MW plus chips), build times, EBITDA economics, current valuation multiples, the evolving fuel mix, and the IFC’s sustainability criteria. Obinna summarizes the IFC’s market-by-market approach to energy sourcing, rising power demand in emerging markets (and potential competition for scarce power), the IFC’s initiatives to expand generation and grid capacity in Africa, and the Middle East’s bid to be a ‘Switzerland of AI Infrastructure.’ We ended by asking Obinna for key trends he’s watching including diversification of AI models, continuous training workloads, and growing private credit participation. It was a fascinating conversation and we can’t thank Obinna enough for joining and sharing his insights. We look forward to staying in touch. Mike Bradley noted that this will be a pivotal week for markets, with the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, a slew of Q3 reports from Big AI/Tech and Energy/Electricity companies throughout this week, and an OPEC+ meeting being held over the weekend. In the bond market, the 10-year bond yield continues to be stuck in the 4% range. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps both this week and again in December. On the oil market front, WTI price has slipped back to ~$60/bbl as oil traders seem fixated again on the 2026 oil supply surplus rather than Russian oil sanctions. OPEC+ is expected to raise November oil production by another 137kbpd (similar to October) at this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. At Veriten, we still envision oil markets in 2026 being a “tale of two markets” with 1H26 being challenged and 2H26 being pretty constructive. In global market news, President Javier Milei’s party scored a major win in Argentina’s legislative elections, sending bond yields lower, the peso modestly higher, and a 20%+ surge in the Argentina stock market. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 continues to reach new highs with this week’s move mostly due to optimism of a China-U.S. trade deal. A handful of Big AI/Tech names will be reporting this week (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META & MSFT) which could increase broader marke

Today was a truly incredible day. As you know, COBT began in the spring of 2020 with the original mission of trying to share better and more informed energy macro perspectives with the energy-curious world. Over the past five and a half years, it has evolved to become something much bigger, a platform to share a wide range of energy perspectives. Today marked a watershed moment in the history of energy education. As noted in the official press release linked here, Bob Zorich, Partner and Co-Founder of EnCap Investments, made an extraordinarily generous donation to Arizona State University with the sole purpose of advancing energy education. Bob is an alumnus of ASU's Thunderbird School of Global Management, and the investment will directly support energy education and innovation, advancing practical, fact-based solutions to global energy challenges. For those of you who are regular listeners or viewers, you may remember we hosted Dr. Michael Crow, President of ASU, on the podcast in September (episode linked here). What’s particularly exciting about ASU is the University’s commitment to reimagining education, scaling access, and transforming workforce development. Bob Zorich, as a highly accomplished energy business leader, is passionate about improving energy education and seems to have found a phenomenal partner in ASU. In this week’s segment, we broadcast live from ASU’s rollout of the new energy education initiative here in Houston. We caught up with Michael and Bob for a quick conversation on a very busy day to discuss the initiative, Bob’s passion for expanding energy knowledge, ASU’s commitment to fostering problem-solving, the university’s diverse student body and global reach, and more. You’ll also see Michael and Bob’s panel from the event discussing the initiative in detail. We greatly appreciate Michael and Bob for including Veriten in this exciting event. As a wrap up, we are delighted to share that this week marks our 300th regularly scheduled COBT episode. We appreciate the Veriten community and the many great guests who have joined us along the way. We look forward to the next 300 episodes and where they will take us. All we can promise is that we’ll continue following our curiosity wherever it leads us and remain committed to letting our guests openly talk about their perspectives so you can form your own views on the complex energy, power, and environmental issues of the day. Our best to you all!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting William Clouston, Party Leader of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the United Kingdom. William has served as Party Leader since 2018 and was re-elected in March 2020. He originally joined the SDP in 1982 and spent four years in the Conservative Party, becoming a District Councilor and serving on Tynedale Council. He holds both undergraduate and master’s degrees in Urban Planning and Property Management. We became interested in connecting with William after reading the SDP’s Energy Abundance paper published in September (linked here). Founded in 1981, the SDP is an economically left leaning and culturally traditional political party. Its flagship “Social Market” economic model views the private and public sectors not as opponents but as complementary parts of the same society. We were delighted to connect with William for an insightful discussion on the UK and Europe’s energy policies and beyond. We covered a wide range of topics in our conversation, beginning with the purpose and motivation for writing Energy Abundance, including Britain’s current energy crisis, marked by too little power, high costs, and overreliance on imports. William shares the history of the government’s role in energy policy and the SDP’s argument for a return to government-led energy development, starting with building gas and coal plants. He discusses reactions to the paper, the urgency of rebuilding domestic energy capacity, and the importance of distinguishing cost and value when considering investing $150 billion in grid stabilization and baseload generation. We compare the UK’s energy landscape to Germany and the U.S., the risk of further productivity decline if energy issues persist, and public awareness of the energy crisis, which remains politically constrained by cultural and institutional apathy. We explore the SDP’s economic and political philosophy, including the party’s support for strategic trade protection and tariffs and its cultural traditionalism, emphasizing family as the foundation of society, nation-states, borders, and conventional values. We touch on how energy debates are often constrained by social norms, particularly around net zero, the SDP’s 10-year energy plan proposing a state-run, vertically integrated utility, the UK’s historical “dash for gas” and current overreliance on renewables, and the party’s support for large-scale nuclear, favoring its “brute force” capacity and proven designs. We ended by asking William for his vision of the UK in ten years. We learned a lot and greatly appreciate William for sharing his deep knowledge of British politics, policies, and culture with us all. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the S&P 500 is up ~2% this week on better than expected quarterly results from the Big US Banks. AI & Electricity mania remain “the” key equity market drivers, which has also pushed the Consumer Discretionary, Technology & Utilities sectors higher this week. On the crude oil market front, WTI has sunk to ~$59/bbl, partly on the Gaza Peace Agreement but mainly due to growing concern with the 2026 global oil supply surplus. Both the IEA and OPEC published their monthly oil outlooks, with the IEA projecting a ~4mmbpd 2026 surplus, which is ridiculously higher than all other estimates. The reason oil prices seem to be moving lower this week (versus previous weeks) is because oil traders are pressing their bearish bets now that crude oil prices have finally broken to the downside. On the energy equity front, one of this week’s biggest Energy/Electricity equity movers is Bloom Energy (up ~30%) on news Brookfield struck a $5B strategic partnership with Bloom to be their preferred fuel cell supplier at Brookfield’s global AI factories. Q3 Energy results kick off this week with most investors expecting to hear a softening frac story but a scaling up of their power business. Most investors

Today we were thrilled to host Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Managing Director of U.S. Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Research at Jefferies. Julien joined the firm in July 2024 after serving as a Senior Research Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and as an Executive Director at UBS. He holds an MBA and a B.S. in Applied Mathematics from Columbia University. Institutional Investor magazine has ranked Julien as a #1 double-ranked analyst in both Utilities and Alternative/Clean Energy, and he was inducted into the II Hall of Fame for his cumulative accomplishments. It was our pleasure to welcome Julien to our office and hear his thoughtful perspectives on the ever-evolving energy and power landscape. In our discussion, we explore Julien’s coverage universe, which he describes as “the full electron and derivatives landscape” spanning utilities, IPPs, renewables, gas plants, industrial adjacencies, and service providers. We discuss the influx of new investors entering power and utilities, Julien’s observation that the biggest surprise isn’t data center proliferation, but rather how tech companies are paying premiums for power to secure supply, and how utilities once seen as “defensive” are now showing growth characteristics. We touch on the tension between tech companies’ need for rapid, large-scale power and their reluctance to become capital-intensive or FERC-regulated, why we’re not seeing more long-term offtakes with existing power plants and how state level politics play into it, and how legacy players, new entrants, and regulators are all adapting to a power market being reshaped by AI demand, infrastructure bottlenecks, and novel deal structures. Julien shares that rising inflation across the economy is showing up in utility bills and expresses concern that LNG developers or data centers could be scapegoated for higher gas and power prices. He highlights the parabolic rise in the value of capacity and reliability, the drivers of power inflation including turbine shortages and rising capital costs, whether utilities are properly incentivized to control costs, the role of demand-response mechanisms, and how regulatory and state-level actions are shaping markets. We cover power market scenarios for high and low demand cases, the role of innovation in batteries, fuel cells, and other technologies, and the tension between patching existing systems versus building large-scale infrastructure. We also discuss constraints on ramping renewables, the growing influence of behind-the-meter power, implications for Q3 earnings, and much more. We covered a lot of territory and greatly enjoyed the conversation. To be added to Julien’s research distribution list, click here. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that markets continue to be mostly focused on the U.S. Government shutdown. The 10-year bond yield continues to trade sideways at ~4.1% with economic reports on pause until the government reopens. Internationally, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party elected Sanae Takaichi (who is viewed as fiscally expansionary), which some believe increases the risk of an unwind of the long-standing Yen carry trade. The S&P 500 is up roughly 80bps since the government shutdown, with Healthcare and Technology outperforming. He highlighted AMD’s chip deal with OpenAI, which added roughly $70B in market cap, and Oracle’s pullback on AI cloud margin concerns. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has increased modestly this week due to OPEC+ announcing a smaller than expected ~135kbpd oil production increase for November. While this could widen the 2026 surplus, traders are weighing when and how prices might react amid limited OPEC spare capacity. On the energy equity front, he pointed out FERMI America’s strong IPO debut and continued investor enthusiasm for electricity generation. He ended by flagging the upcoming Rockpoint Gas Storage IPO (280bcf in Canada &

We are back on the road this week for an insightful visit with Ray Zage, CEO of Tiga Investments, and Shon Hiatt, Director of the Zage Business of Energy Initiative and Associate Professor of Business Administration at the University of Southern California. Ray is a seasoned global investor who has led Tiga since 2017. He began his career at Goldman Sachs and has held roles in Singapore, New York, and Los Angeles. He serves on multiple boards and also advises early-stage technology ventures. Shon joined the USC Marshall School of Business from Harvard in 2014 and is also a Distinguished Fellow at the Hamm Institute for American Energy. His research focuses on entrepreneurship, global strategy, innovation and sustainability. This week, USC is hosting its annual Energy Business Summit (details here). We were delighted to spend time with Ray and Shon to hear their perspectives on today’s evolving academic and energy landscape. In our conversation, we discuss the Zage Business of Energy Initiative and its mission to build a pipeline of future energy leaders equipped to develop practical investment approaches and spark innovation and entrepreneurship across industries. Shon reflects on his research in Europe, noting parallels with California’s energy challenges, and Ray shares his motivation to support broader, more objective research in energy beyond just “cleanliness,” shaped in part by his experiences across Asia and his perspective on long-term, balanced energy policy. We explore the history of energy at USC, California’s refining and energy policy challenges, lessons from Asia, China, and Singapore’s long-term planning, the growing energy needs of data centers in Asia versus the U.S., and the strategic positioning of countries like Singapore. We touch on the USC Energy Business Summit and its lineup of topics from energy storage and renewables, nuclear energy, and AI and energy demand, as well as the growing interest among students in pursuing energy careers. We address global electricity demand trends, energy affordability in emerging economies, the impacts of geopolitical instability on energy security, China’s energy strategy, the global competition for raw materials, nuclear power developments, Silicon Valley’s growing embrace of nuclear and natural gas, the need for durable laws to support long-term energy investment, and more. We greatly enjoyed the discussion and appreciate Shon and Ray for joining. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that markets were largely focused this week on the impending U.S. government shutdown. Over the past 50 years, there have been 21 shutdowns with an average length of 7-8 days. The longest shutdown was 35 days (Dec. 2018 to Jan. 2019), which occurred during President Trump’s first term. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield (4.15%) was down marginally this week on the impending shutdown. Bond markets are mostly focused on employment reports this week (JOLTS Job Openings, Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls) which would be delayed in a shutdown. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 seems to be in “no man’s land” at least until investors see the outcome and duration of this impending shutdown. On the crude oil market front, WTI price was down ~$3/bbl (~$63/bbl) this week for a couple potential reasons. Oil traders are growing concerned that OPEC+ could announce an oil production increase for November of 500kbpd (and 1.5mmbpd over the next three months) at their October 5th Meeting, which would increase the 2026 global oil surplus even further. In addition, President Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan may also be weighing a little bit on oil price because it eliminates any “perceived” war premium in oil prices. He ended by discussing the impending Fermi America IPO (FRMI). Fermi, co-founded by former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, is a planned 11 GW energy and data center c