C.O.B. Tuesday

Today we had the very exciting and interesting opportunity to visit with Jim Grech, President and CEO of Peabody. Jim was appointed as CEO in June 2021 and brings more than 30 years of experience across the coal and natural resources space. His career includes leadership roles as CEO of Wolverine Fuels, President of Nexus Gas Transmission, EVP and CCO of CONSOL Energy, and Vice President of DTE Energy. Peabody, founded in 1883, is one of the leading coal producers in the U.S., operating 17 surface and underground mines across the U.S. and Australia. We were thrilled to hear Jim’s perspective on the evolving role of coal in both the U.S. and global energy markets. In our conversation, Jim shares background on his decision to join Peabody during a period of financial and market uncertainty and outlines the company’s progress in recent years, including repayment of $1.5B in secured debt, reinstatement of a dividend and stock buyback program, and reinvestment in U.S. and Australian assets. We discuss how to motivate a coal workforce amid global anti-coal sentiment, Peabody’s asset footprint, the strategic importance of the Powder River Basin (PRB) and the untapped potential to export PRB coal to Asia, the advantages of U.S. coal relative to coal in other parts of the world, and the vast abundance of U.S. coal, with U.S. coal reserves containing more energy than any other nation holds in any single energy resource. We explore the distinctions between thermal and metallurgical coal, global coal demand and outlook, the longevity of coal infrastructure with new plants expected to operate for 30-50 years, the improved environmental footprint of modern coal plants and outdated misconceptions, coal’s role in poverty reduction and economic growth in developing nations, and the push to codify U.S. regulatory changes into legislation for permanence beyond changing administrations. Jim shares his perspective on coal’s role in grid stability and delivering lower, more stable electricity prices, state-level legislative trends supporting reliability requirements for coal plants, the current status and underutilization of the U.S. coal fleet, and renewed interest from industrial users and datacenters seeking long-term, dependable power sources. We examine investor trends including the emerging investor focus on international coal markets, international market dynamics and growth opportunities across metallurgical and thermal coal, and much more. We close by asking Jim for his top takeaway, and he highlights the importance of being open-minded about coal’s net benefits, particularly regarding its role in global energy access, industrial development, and improving standards of living. It was our pleasure to host Jim and we greatly enjoyed the discussion. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that bond, commodity and equity markets have largely roundtripped to their June 12th closing levels (prior to the Israeli strike on Iran). From a bond market perspective, the 10-year bond yield (~4.3%) has essentially roundtripped and traders are now focused on upcoming economic data. In crude markets, WTI spiked to a high of ~$78.50/bbl on Monday following the U.S. strike over the weekend of Iranian nuclear sites, but has since pulled back to ~$65/bbl amid reports of a “proposed” Iranian/Israeli ceasefire, which is ~$3/bbl lower than June 12th price levels and ~$5/bbl above June trading lows. From an Energy equity standpoint, Energy has also roundtripped and is now trading modestly below (~2%) June 12th levels as energy investors begin refocusing their attention on the 2H’25/1H’26 global oil surplus. From a broader market standpoint, the S&P 500 is now ~0.5% higher than June 12th levels and within 1% of all-time highs. Broader markets are now in the process of transitioning away from Mideast conflict back towards U.S. domestic policy. Mike concluded by noting that investors are beginning to refocus on the odds of Trump’

Today we’re excited to welcome Patrick White, Group Lead for Fusion Energy Safety and Regulation at the Clean Air Task Force (CATF), and Nicholas McMurray, Managing Director of International and Nuclear Policy at ClearPath. Patrick recently joined CATF and leads the organization’s international working group focused on fusion energy safety, waste, and non-proliferation. He holds a Ph.D. in Nuclear Science and Engineering from MIT and previously served as Research Director at the Nuclear Innovation Alliance. Niko is an expert in industrial policy, nuclear energy policy, and regulation. He has been with ClearPath since 2019 and formerly served as a Materials Engineer at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). A few weeks ago, Veriten partnered with CATF and ClearPath to publish a paper calling out reforms to NRC processes and procedures to accelerate the deployment of new nuclear reactors; establishing a more efficient regulatory framework for new and advanced reactors (paper linked here). We were thrilled to host Patrick and Niko for a discussion on the paper and broader trends in the nuclear landscape. Brett Rampal, Senior Director of Nuclear and Power Strategy at Veriten, joined for the conversation and led Veriten’s contribution to the paper. In our discussion, Patrick and Niko share background on their organizations’ missions and long-standing support for nuclear. We explore the need to demystify and modernize NRC processes to accommodate next-generation nuclear technologies, challenges with current regulatory frameworks originally designed for traditional large light-water reactors, the role of licensing structures and the value of more flexible licensing pathways, and the motivation behind their recent paper, which aims to provide actionable, bipartisan policy suggestions to enable nuclear deployment at scale. We examine the historical development and regulatory evolution of power versus non-power reactor definitions, how those distinctions have blurred over time, the shift toward performance-based regulation, and the commercial implications of licensing small reactors under Class 103. We discuss the importance of consistent terminology and regulatory clarity in advancing new nuclear technologies, whether the NRC’s internal culture can evolve to support faster deployment without compromising safety, the NRC’s broader oversight role beyond reactors including medical and industrial applications of radioactive materials, and congressional support for NRC modernization. Patrick and Niko provide insights into international regulatory approaches, such as performance-based models used in the UK, France, and Canada, the critical need to earn public trust through rigorous and efficient safety regulation, the feasibility of President Trump’s goal of having 10 new reactors under construction by 2030, challenges beyond regulation, and much more. We greatly enjoyed the conversation. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the S&P 500 closed modestly lower on the day, while crude oil prices caught a bid amid escalating tensions in the Mideast. On the bond front, the 10-year bond yield (~4.4%) has pulled back over the last few days as markets await the outcome of the June 18th FOMC rate decision meeting. Consensus is for no change in interest rates at this FOMC meeting, but a cut is expected at the September meeting. From a crude oil market standpoint, WTI price has spiked by >$10/bbl to ~$74/bbl over the last five trading days due to the Iranian-Israeli military conflict. While Veriten isn’t in the business of making short-term crude oil price calls based on supply disruption threats, we continue to emphasize that global oil demand growth projections are a more vital determinant for intermediate-term oil prices. On the global S/D front, the IEA recently modeled global oil demand peaking in 2029 (China in 2027), contra

Dr. Ken Medlock, a leading expert in energy policy from Rice University’s Baker Institute, shares his insights on critical energy issues. He discusses the complexities of oil market dynamics, touching on U.S. production forecasts and Middle Eastern strategies, particularly Kuwait's expansion plans. The conversation dives into the challenges and future potential of carbon capture technology. Medlock also emphasizes the importance of diverse energy strategies amidst shifting U.S. policies and geopolitical tensions influencing global energy markets.

Mike Sommers, President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, draws on his extensive experience to discuss the evolving landscape of energy policy. He highlights natural gas's transformation from a waste product to an essential 'forever fuel.' The conversation delves into the urgent need for streamlined energy infrastructure permitting and the impact of the Supreme Court's recent rulings. Additionally, they tackle the challenges of workforce training in the oil and gas sector and the significance of domestic energy policies for national security.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Michael Mische, Associate Professor of Management at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. Michael joined the USC faculty in 1997 and also serves as CEO and a Managing Member of the Synergy Consulting Group. At Marshall, he leads and coordinates the school’s undergraduate and graduate curricula in management consulting. Our interest in connecting with Michael was sparked by his recent report, “A Study of California Gasoline Prices” (linked here). The study presents a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the persistently high retail gasoline prices in California. We were thrilled to explore the findings of the report and hear Michael’s broader perspective on California’s energy and power landscape. In our discussion, we cover the main themes of Michael’s report, beginning with his long-standing interest in the oil and gas industry dating back to the 1973 Arab oil embargo. We explore the study’s key finding that there is no evidence of price manipulation or gouging by refiners, and Michael’s conclusion that California’s high gasoline prices are a direct result of deliberate policy choices. Michael explains why policymakers pursue these strategies, why Californians tolerate higher energy costs, and how these policies create economic strain for lower income residents. We cover the broader economic impact of California energy policies, including the departure of more than 360 major companies since 2018, the national security risks posed by refinery closures that supply a significant share of aviation fuel and diesel to military operations in California, Arizona, and Nevada, how the push for renewable energy has become a primary driver of rising energy costs, and the underlying economics of the refining industry. We discuss the broader effects of refinery shutdowns on infrastructure like roads and airports, California’s increasing dependence on foreign oil, the potential for in-state production growth, proposed policy solutions, the risks of state-run refinery models, how Middle Eastern investors are increasingly targeting U.S. real assets and innovation sectors, and more. We greatly appreciate Michael joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that broader U.S. equities surged ~2.0% on Tuesday, largely driven by news that President Trump would be extending the deadline on EU tariff increases from June 1 to July 9. Equity markets also rose due to the unexpectedly high m/m increase in May Consumer Confidence. On the bond market front, 10-year and 30-year U.S. bond yields traded lower by 8-10bps, mostly due to a plunge in Japanese bond yields despite optimistic news on the EU tariff front and Consumer Confidence. In commodities, WTI price pulled back ~$1/bbl (~$61/bbl) on growing concern that OPEC+ will raise July oil production by another ~0.4mmbpd. Iranian nuclear talks underway in Rome have sparked cautious optimism for a breakthrough, which might prove to be another “marginal” headwind for crude prices. On the U.S. policy front, Mike highlighted last week’s passage of a House Tax Bill which surprisingly gutted renewable/solar subsidies and sent solar equities plunging. Passage through the Senate isn’t guaranteed and could potentially extend/reverse the timeline on some of the solar subsidies. On the electricity front, it was a great week for nuclear and SMR equities (handful of SMR equities up ~40%) following four nuclear-focused Executive Orders from the Trump Administration. He also pointed out the recent eye-popping MISO Summer Capacity Auction (~$666/mw) versus last year’s auction price (~$30/mw) which will lead to much higher utility bills. He closed by highlighting California’s current refinery capacity of ~1.6mmbpd and how the two most recent refinery closure announcements (tota