"We Can Stop The Human Suffering And Defend Our Interests If We Oust The Regime" With Bill Barr, Fmr AG

We are thrilled to share this Special Edition COBT as our final episode of 2025. Like many of you, we have been closely watching the escalating situation in Venezuela, and we had the honor of hosting former Attorney General Bill Barr to hear his unique perspectives. Bill served twice as Attorney General, first under President George H. W. Bush from 1991 to 1993 and again under President Donald Trump from 2019 to 2020. He is the author of “One Damn Thing After Another” and has held senior roles at Kirkland & Ellis and Verizon. He earned his law degree from George Washington University and studied Government and Chinese Studies at Columbia. Bill is currently a Partner at Torridon Group. It was our pleasure to visit with Bill and hear his insights on the latest developments in Venezuela.
 
In our conversation, we explore the current Venezuela crisis and U.S. military buildup, why Bill welcomes the Trump Administration’s response, and why he sees Venezuela as both a national security threat and humanitarian crisis. Bill outlines narco-terrorism versus traditional organized crime, how cartels use drugs as a weapon against the U.S., and why he views Venezuela as a strategic adversary with deep ties to Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, and Hezbollah. He explains why domestic-style law enforcement doesn’t work inside hostile foreign territory and walks through the long-standing U.S. doctrine of acting when foreign states are “unable or unwilling” to deal with threats to the U.S. in their territory. We discuss lessons from U.S. action in Panama, stopping short in Iraq after Gulf War I, what “if you break it, you own it” means for Venezuela, why Venezuela is the focus now, versus Mexico and others, the role of Russia and China in Venezuela, and how renewed enforcement pressure on sanctioned tankers and oil flows can further squeeze the regime. We cover the effectiveness and limits of sanctions and the emerging quasi-blockade, how the President should think about escalation from a legal and constitutional perspective, Maduro’s options and potential off-ramps, the case for swift, decisive action, how failed regimes drive refugee crises that put pressure on U.S. borders, the potential collateral benefits for Venezuela and the broader region if things go well, and much more. As always, we appreciate hearing Bill’s perspectives. It was a fascinating conversation.
 
Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that Thursday’s November CPI report printed much lower than expected, which lifted bonds and equities. On the electricity market front, he highlighted that the PJM Capacity Auction for 2027-2028 resulted in a record price ($333 per megawatt day). The more concerning takeaway, however, was that PJM did not obtain enough capacity to meet future reliability requirements. In energy news, Mike noted that Meg O’Neill, current CEO of Woodside Energy, has accepted the CEO role at BP PLC. On the oil market front, he observed that WTI price appears to have temporarily stabilized in the $56-$57/bbl range. Oil markets continue to be overly concerned with a “perceived” oil supply price glut in 2026, and at the current WTI strip price (mid-$50s/bbl), 2026 E&P budgets will be negatively impacted when they report in the coming months. He wrapped by walking through Venezuela’s past/present oil production (under both the Chávez and Maduro administrations) and the severe economic damage that’s been inflicted under the Maduro presidency. Arjun Murti built on Mike’s comments and reflected on Venezuela’s oil industry in the 1990s, when international oil companies partnered with PDVSA to develop the country’s vast heavy-oil resources under favorable fiscal terms and strong technical collaboration. He contrasted that period with the deterioration that followed under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, as contract terms were tightened and assets were eventually nationalized, contributing to the collapse of Venezuela’s oil sector and the country’s