"Either There Is An Agenda, Or There Is A Serious Problem In Their Models" With Dr. Anas Alhajji, Energy Outlook Advisors

Today we were delighted to welcome Dr. Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner of Energy Outlook Advisors and Author of the Energy Outlook Advisors Substack (linked here). Dr. Alhajji is a leading expert on global energy markets. He advises governments, companies, financial institutions, and investors on oil and gas outlooks, energy geopolitics, energy security, and the impact of disruptive technologies on supply and demand. Anas previously served as Chief Economist at NGP Energy Capital Management and taught economics at the University of Oklahoma, the Colorado School of Mines, and Ohio Northern University. He holds an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics, with a specialization in energy economics and policy. We were thrilled to hear his insights on the oil markets and beyond.
 
In our conversation, Anas explains why mainstream oil-market commentary often falls short, how OPEC’s role is to match supply and demand, and shares on-the-ground sentiment from ADIPEC including a focus on AI and “energy addition, not transition,” with OPEC’s outlook seeing demand rising toward ~123 mmb/d. We discuss structural demand drivers including urbanization, immigration, rising incomes, and AI/data centers plus autonomous vehicles and the equity valuation puzzle amid inventories and spare capacity. Anas details the “oil on the water” debate including why recent headline numbers were overstated and how different factors from Iranian tankers suddenly broadcasting their transponders, Saudi barrels routed to Egypt but for Saudi-owned storage, Brazilian cargoes diverted to China, slower ship speeds, and others all swell oil-at-sea without adding supply. We explore how Aramco and ADNOC are evolving into global energy companies, why Saudi is leaning on renewables and nuclear to free oil for export, what to make of Saudi rigs and capacity, and why demand analysis should prioritize growth rates over absolute levels given definitional differences and the IEA’s repeated upward revisions. Anas argues the IEA has persistently underestimated demand (including major multi-year revisions), contrasts IEA growth figures with stronger observed U.S. demand, and notes record U.S. crude without shale growth. We also touch on SPR strategy, why Anas believes the large 2022 release worked, his critique of “circular information” among agencies, banks, and media plus conformity shaping bearish narratives, the limited efficacy of current sanctions regimes, and much more. It was a wide-ranging discussion and we’re grateful to Anas for sharing his expertise with us.
 
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the U.S. Government shutdown has reached Day 35, tying the previous record set during President Trump’s first term. In oil markets, WTI continues to hover around $60/bbl and is still being impacted by 2026 global oil supply concerns. OPEC+ agreed to raise December oil production by 137kbpd (consensus) but will pause oil production increments in January, February, and March. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 is down ~1% this week and looks to be losing some trading momentum after a huge recent run. Many of the Big6 AI/Tech stocks reported Q3 results last week, which were generally solid with AI capex spending budgets heading higher as expected. Over the last week or so, these same AI/Tech stocks were down 3-5% (on average) due to both growing valuation concerns and sustainability of this AI rally. These Big Tech stocks make up >35% of the S&P 500 market-cap, and if they sneeze, markets could catch a cold. Aramco reported quarterly results this week and struck a pretty constructive tone with one of its key highlights this quarter being an increase in their natural gas production capacity growth target (by 2030) to 80% up from 60%. On the E&P equity front, gassy E&Ps have been pretty constructive but aren’t leaning into gas growth just yet, while oily E&Ps are taking a more cau