Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth
Common Thread Collective
2020 transformed the world of ecommerce forever.
For the modern DTC brand, the rewards have never been greater. But the waters have also never been choppier, and the way forward has never been more uncertain.
So how do you navigate this dangerous new reality?
No matter how you do it, you’d better not do it alone.
That’s where the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast comes in — join Common Thread Collective’s Taylor Holiday & Richard Gaffin as they bring you guiding insights from across CTC’s portfolio of growing DTC businesses.
Whether you need a clear view on the macro issues affecting the world of ecommerce, or want to reorient your business around groundbreaking new big-picture strategies, Taylor & Richard are here to help answer the tough questions about what it takes to scale — and sustain — an ecommerce business.
For the modern DTC brand, the rewards have never been greater. But the waters have also never been choppier, and the way forward has never been more uncertain.
So how do you navigate this dangerous new reality?
No matter how you do it, you’d better not do it alone.
That’s where the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast comes in — join Common Thread Collective’s Taylor Holiday & Richard Gaffin as they bring you guiding insights from across CTC’s portfolio of growing DTC businesses.
Whether you need a clear view on the macro issues affecting the world of ecommerce, or want to reorient your business around groundbreaking new big-picture strategies, Taylor & Richard are here to help answer the tough questions about what it takes to scale — and sustain — an ecommerce business.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Dec 3, 2025 • 26min
BFCM 2025 Results: What Really Happened This Weekend
BFCM 2025 showcased intriguing trends, with a +7% revenue uptick and a surprising Saturday surge, where orders increased by 20%. AppLovin surpassed expectations by over 100%, while media delivery from Meta presented a new set of challenges. Despite fewer overall orders, higher average order value indicated changing consumer behavior, especially among younger shoppers utilizing BNPL. Tactical pivots, like adjusting discounts, proved essential for revenue recovery, prompting discussions on what these insights imply for 2026 planning.
Nov 25, 2025 • 29min
5 Last-Minute BFCM Fixes You STILL Have Time to Make
Adrienne Austin, VP of Creative at Common Thread Collective, and Allie Sims, Director of Growth Strategy, dive into last-minute fixes for Black Friday/Cyber Monday. They discuss crucial strategies such as aligning spend to iROAS targets and enhancing creative through historical ads and UGC. The duo emphasizes the importance of simplifying offers and ensuring operational readiness to avoid complications. They also share tips on hour-by-hour tracking to optimize performance, ensuring brands can leverage the holiday weekend effectively.
Nov 20, 2025 • 1h 2min
CFO Summit: Board, Budget, Bonus - The Forecasting Framework for 2026
In this session, a forecasting framework is unveiled to guide ecommerce brands into 2026. Key highlights include the three scenario types every CFO should master and the importance of basing plans on real data. There’s a deep dive into common forecasting pitfalls to avoid, and a four-step process for building robust financial models. The discussion also emphasizes the critical relationship between marketing strategies and revenue forecasting, while establishing the need for daily execution and accountability to adapt quickly.
8 snips
Nov 18, 2025 • 1h 2min
Meta’s Black Box Is Ruining Your Creative Strategy
In this insightful discussion, Reza Khadjavi, CEO of Motion, dives into the challenges brands face with Meta's new ad ranking systems. He unpacks how Meta's opacity affects ad performance and why traditional hook testing isn't as effective anymore. Reza explains the importance of creative taxonomy and how AI tagging can reveal biases in audience targeting. He also highlights the shift from growth hacking to fundamental messaging, urging brands to focus on clear customer understanding in this ever-evolving digital landscape.
Nov 13, 2025 • 26min
How to Set Meta ROAS Targets Before Black Friday
Dive into essential strategies for setting Meta ROAS targets ahead of the Black Friday frenzy. Discover why comparing 7-day and 28-day click attribution is crucial as holiday shopping patterns shift. Learn how to adjust your ad spend based on incremental testing results and daily spending power fluctuations. The conversation unveils insights on conversion latency and how it impacts advertising efficiency. All this is accompanied by actionable steps to maximize your performance during the busiest shopping period of the year.
Nov 11, 2025 • 36min
2026 Forecast Planning: Board vs Budget vs Bonus Explained
In this discussion, hosts highlight the importance of a three-forecast model for eCommerce planning: Board, Budget, and Bonus. They delve into balancing urgent tasks like Black Friday with long-term goals. Key forecasting inputs, such as percentage-over-model and event effect modeling, are explained for more accurate predictions. Listeners learn to define their goals for team performance and how new marketing events can influence forecasts. Overall, it's a smart guide to navigating future challenges while ensuring team alignment.
10 snips
Nov 6, 2025 • 23min
Why Your 2026 Financial Plan Needs 3 Scenarios (Not 1)
In this discussion, Taylor Holiday, CEO of Common Thread Collective and an e-commerce forecasting expert, emphasizes the need for businesses to prepare financial plans with three scenarios: Board, Budget, and Bonus. He highlights the importance of early planning during the holiday season, offering insights on aligning marketing calendars with financial goals. Taylor explains how to forecast revenue from both retention and new customers, and discusses the value of external partners in enhancing forecasting accuracy, ultimately guiding businesses toward better decision-making for 2026.
10 snips
Nov 4, 2025 • 32min
How to Optimize Ad Spend in Real Time During Black Friday
Prepare for Black Friday success with real-time ad spend optimization! Discover how top DTC brands track metrics hourly to outsmart competitors. Learn to identify pacing issues early and decide when to adjust spending. A case study shows how one brand achieved a 65% revenue surge with timely marketing. Plus, insights on handling Cyber Monday slumps and maximizing returns. Real-time data reveals buyer behavior, allowing swift corrections to meet targets and enhance profitability!
Oct 30, 2025 • 22min
Is Ecommerce Finally Rebounding? Here’s What the Data Says.
Steve ReCook, the Chief Data Scientist at Common Thread Collective, shares insights on ecommerce trends and consumer sentiment. He reveals that while ecommerce revenue has surged by 10% year over year, consumer confidence is declining. The discussion highlights the importance of returning customers in driving growth, the paradox of increased spending despite economic pessimism, and how brands can leverage consumer confidence data for better forecasting. Steve emphasizes the need for brands to adjust their strategies based on evolving consumer sentiment.
Oct 28, 2025 • 33min
How to Plan Hour-by-Hour Spend for Black Friday & Cyber Monday
Discover the secrets to optimizing your ad spend for Black Friday and Cyber Monday! The hosts break down the unique revenue patterns across these lucrative days, revealing how to avoid early morning panic and set effective hourly targets. Learn the best times to spend, why revenue fluctuates, and how to course-correct in real time. Plus, insights on connecting your actions to revenue and tips for preparing Meta campaigns ensure you're ready to capitalize on peak moments. Don't leave your success to chance this holiday season!
