More or Less: Behind the Stats

After the lifting of Covid restrictions, predictions of hospitalizations fell drastically short of expectations. The cost of policing climate protests has hit £50 million since 2019, raising questions about resource allocation. A significant driver shortage in the UK, worsened by Brexit, reveals a need for over 100,000 more lorry drivers. Meanwhile, government debt has surged to £2.2 trillion, prompting comparisons to past financial crises. Surprisingly, it seems that even Mr. Spock may not be the logical genius we thought!

Julia Galef, author of 'The Scout Mindset,' joins Tim Harford to delve into how our human impulses often cloud rational thinking. They explore the wisdom of Mr. Spock from Star Trek, illustrating his misguided confidence in statistical predictions. The conversation highlights the differences between the scout and soldier mindsets, emphasizing objective truth-seeking over the comfort of familiar beliefs. They also discuss the importance of calibrating confidence in forecasts and recognizing uncertainty in decision-making.

The podcast delves into the extraordinary life of Dr. Robert Moses, highlighting his impactful journey from Harlem to civil rights activism. His courageous role during the Freedom Summer Project in Mississippi showcases his fight against systemic racism. The discussion also celebrates the Algebra Project, which revolutionized math education for underserved students by linking real-life experiences to learning. Tune in for a gripping exploration of activism, education, and the enduring legacy of a true pioneer.

Dr. Joel Mason, a sports scientist and founder of the blog Trackademic, joins the discussion to analyze the standout performances from the Tokyo Olympics. He dives into the astonishing number of records broken, including national achievements soaring past those in Rio. They address the impact of technological advancements and unique training adaptations due to the pandemic. The conversation also touches on an inspiring moment of sportsmanship when two high jumpers chose to share gold instead of competing, highlighting the spirit of the Games.

As some countries rapidly roll out vaccination programmes, there have been concerns that increases in infection rates amongst vaccinated groups mean vaccines are less effective than we hoped, especially in the face of the feared Delta variant. Epidemiologist Dr Katelyn Jetelina from the University of Texas Health Science Centre School of Public Health explains why this isn’t what the numbers show – rather than decreasing vaccine effectiveness, increasing rates can be explained by a statistical phenomenon known as ‘base rate fallacy’. Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Nathan Gower

June saw a brutal heatwave shatter a number of all-time temperature records in Canada and the Northwest of the USA. But when can we attribute new records to man-made climate change, rather than natural variation? Peter Stott, an expert in climate attribution at the UK’s Met Office, explains how climate change has dramatically increased the probability of seeing such extremes.Presenter: Tim HarfordProducer: Nathan Gower

The Delta Variant was first identified in India, fuelling a huge wave of cases and deaths. It is now spreading around the world, becoming the most dominant variant in many countries. This week we take a look at the numbers - where’s it spreading, how is this different to previous waves and what can be done to stop it?Tim Harford speaks to Professor Azra Ghani, Chair in Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College, London and John Burn-Murdoch, the chief data reporter at The Financial Times.

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid restirictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this “freedom day" or an unnecessary gamble with people’s lives?

In recent months, Twitter has rarely been out of the headlines in Nigeria. After it deleted a tweet by the country’s president, the Nigerian government responded by banning it altogether. In the media coverage of the story it has been commonly claimed that Nigeria has 40 million Twitter users – but could this really be true? We spoke to Allwell Okpi of the fact-checking organisation AfricaCheck.Also, which places have the best full vaccination rates in the world? Turns out, its some of the smallest. We run through the top five.Producer: Nathan Gower

To some on the internet, the cheap anti-parasitic drug Ivermectin is a potential wonder drug that could dramatically change the global fight against Covid-19. It has passionate proponents, from a small group of scientists to the more conspiratorially-minded. But with a scattered evidence base of varying quality, what - if anything - do we know for sure about Ivermectin? And is uncovering the truth a more complex process than some appreciate?With Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz from the University of Wollongong, Australia.Producer: Nathan Gower