

More or Less
BBC Radio 4
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
Episodes
Mentioned books

Feb 27, 2022 • 9min
Did lockdowns save any lives?
Lockdown. A word we’ve all become overly familiar with over the past two years. Lockdowns were intended to protect people, especially societies most vulnerable, from the risks associated with contracting Covid. However, a new study has been making headlines which claims to show that mandatory lockdowns have only reduced Covid-19 mortality by 0.2%, or one death in five hundred. We examine the evidence behind the claim.

11 snips
Feb 23, 2022 • 28min
Vaccinating children, lockdowns, and ebikes
Governments in the UK are offering COVID vaccinations to kids aged 5 to 11, raising questions about the health implications. A controversial study suggests lockdowns had little effect on mortality rates. Meanwhile, discussions around global population trends reveal challenges in forecasting fertility rates. Adding a light twist, the debate over e-bikes versus traditional bikes explores environmental footprints, while questioning if riding an e-bike is indeed greener. Expect a mix of serious data analysis and humorous insights throughout!

Feb 20, 2022 • 9min
Hospitalisation rates for children with Covid
Covid vaccines will be offered to all children across the UK between the ages of 5 and 12 - some months after the same decision in countries such as Italy and Germany. It is a topic that has caused a fair amount of controversy and with controversy often comes suspicious statistical claims. We look at the data behind child hospitalisations and deaths due to Covid19.

Feb 16, 2022 • 29min
Questioning claims about Covid and children
The podcast dives deep into the actual risks Covid-19 poses to children, revealing that many hospitalized kids have pre-existing conditions rather than severe symptoms. It questions sensationalized statistics and contrasts alarming predictions about the Omicron variant with the less severe real-world outcomes. The discussion highlights the statistical literacy gaps among MPs, showcasing how misunderstandings can impact public health decision-making. Lastly, it emphasizes the need for precision in scientific terminology, particularly in complex topics like nanomoles.

Feb 13, 2022 • 9min
Testosterone and sport
In early December 2021 a member of Penn University Women’s Swim Team caused a stir. Lia Thomas not only won three events but she had the fastest time in elite college swimming in the country in two out of three races. This achievement reignited a debate as Lia Thomas is a transgender woman; we examine the rules around testosterone and trans women’s participation in elite sport.

Feb 9, 2022 • 29min
The prime minister in statistical bother
The podcast tackles Boris Johnson's misleading claims about employment and crime, revealing a troubling narrative at odds with reality. It dives into the complexities of crime statistics, highlighting discrepancies and the need for accountability. The discussion transitions to the contentious policies around trans women's participation in sports, examining fairness and physiological advantages. Lastly, it ventures into the mysterious world of fungi, uncovering the vast number of undiscovered species and the challenges researchers face.

Feb 6, 2022 • 9min
Can you fool your brain?
Have you ever wondered how your expectations can influence your well-being? This discussion dives into the power of the placebo effect and its surprising impact on health. A study on hotel workers reveals how belief can transform perceptions of exercise. However, skepticism remains, as not all myths about the placebo effect hold water. Tune in for a fascinating exploration of how our minds can shape our physical experiences—could the right mindset truly lead to better health?

Feb 2, 2022 • 29min
Does the UK have the fastest growing economy in the G7?
Conservative politicians have taken to the airwaves to tell us to forget the parties, and just look at the economic growth - but is the UK really growing faster than other leading economies?The Omicron variant has raised the chance that people are re-infected with Covid - how common is that, and should it change the way we read the statistics that are reported each day?The great statistician Sir David Cox has died; we remember his life and his contribution to the science of counting.And does comparing the number of food banks to the number of McDonald’s restaurants in the UK tell us anything about food poverty?

Jan 30, 2022 • 9min
Fertility rates: baby boom or bust?
Despite lockdowns bringing couples closer, global birth rates are actually declining. Economic uncertainties are reshaping family planning, with countries like the U.S. and China facing significant drops, while Nigeria continues to see high rates. The podcast discusses how policies like China's three-child initiative respond to this crisis. It delves into the challenges of affordable childcare and work-life balance that affect fertility decisions today. Ultimately, the conversation raises concerns about the future of family planning and the economy.

Jan 26, 2022 • 28min
Should you follow the 5 second rule? And does inflation hit the poorest harder?
Food writer Jack Monroe sparked national debate this week when she tweeted about food price hikes on the cheapest goods in supermarkets - but does inflation really hit low income households hardest?Social media and some news outlets have spread claims this week that only around 17,000 people have actually died of Covid. We debunk.We test the truth of the five second rule - is it a good idea to eat watermelon within five seconds of dropping it on the floor? And can you think yourself better?


