More or Less: Behind the Stats

The UK’s Covid cases are still rising and Scotland is being hit particularly hard - so are we speeding up our vaccination programme in response?Will many of the UK’s coastal towns, not to mention central London, be underwater in the next few years?Do the country’s poorest households really pay more than half their income in tax?What are the top five places with the best vaccination rates in the world? The answers may surprise you.We speak to Tom Chivers, a science journalist who has written a book called “How to Read numbers” with his cousin the economist David Chivers.

The podcast dives into the 400th anniversary of the Mayflower voyage, a pivotal event in U.S. history. It reveals how millions today can trace their lineage to the original 102 passengers. The discussion includes the harsh realities faced during the voyage and the surprising mathematics behind descendant relationships. The concept of pedigree collapse is explored, showing how interconnected modern families are to historical figures. A lighthearted twist concludes with a quirky estimate linking Mayflower descendants to the number pi.

The Delta variant is behind the big increase in the number of new Covid 19 cases in the UK since April. We take a look at what impact vaccines have had on infections, hospitalisations and deaths.Chris Packham told viewers on the BBC’s Springwatch that blue tits eat 35 billion caterpillars a year. We get him onto the programme to explain.How much does Type 2 diabetes cost the NHS a year? While exploring a dubious claim we find out why its hard to work that out.Is it true that on in two people will get cancer? We’ve looked at this statistic before but listeners keep spotting it on TV.We also ask: if the SarsCov2 RNA is 96% similar to the RNA of a virus found in bats - is that similar, or not?

To find out where a virus comes from, researchers compare it to other viruses to try to trace its origin. This leads to claims like SARS-CoV-2 is 91 or even 96% similar to other known viruses. But what does that really mean? Tim Harford talks to the virus ecologist Marilyn J Roossinck.

The official number of deaths attributed to Covid 19 around the world in the whole of 2020 is 1.88 million. The global toll this year surpassed this figure on 11th of June. We look at how things are worse worldwide, despite vaccines and lock downs. Does the UK have the worst bathing sites in Europe? That’s certainly a claim made by a number of newspapers. We show why this is not the case. Health Secretary Matt Hancock has been in the news again with comments regarding care homes during the pandemic. Just how good was the government’s ‘ring of protection’ around care homes during the first wave - and the second? We speak to Steven Johnson about his book ‘Extra Life: A Short History of Living Longer.’

Steven Johnson, author of Extra Life, tells the fascinating history of life expectancy, and the extraordinary achievements of the last century, in which it has practically doubled.It’s a story that has data at its heart, from the ground-breaking invention of the category itself in 17th century London to the pioneering social health surveys of W.E.B. Du Bois in 1890s Philadelphia. Tim Harford spoke to Steven about the numbers beneath possibly the most important number of all.

Covid cases are rising again in the UK – should we be worried about a third wave? Tim Harford speaks to David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of Risk at the University of Cambridge.How safe are smart motorways? Many listeners have concerns that they seem more dangerous than conventional motorways. We take a look at the numbers.What proportion of adults in England have been vaccinated? Listeners have spotted a potential discrepancy in the public data online.Are 80% of women wearing the wrong size bra? This frequently repeated statistic has been around for decades – could it possibly be true?

Health Minister Matt Hancock recently told the House of Commons that: “The number of vaccinations happening in Bolton right now is phenomenal - tens of thousands every single day.” We explain why this is not the case.The recent SNP election success has turned attention to the question of independence. We compare Scotland’s finances to the comparably sized Yorkshire and Humber region.How do you work out 28 + 47 in your head? We speak to mathematician Katie Steckles.A listener asked us to find out if it is true that the average age of a gamer is over 40.Plus, we take a look at this claim from Netflix documentary Seaspiracy: “if current fishing trends continue we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048.”

Popular Netflix documentary Seaspiracy has sparked a lot of debate recently, including some controversy over some of the claims the documentary makes and the numbers behind them. One of the most striking is that: “if current fishing trends continue we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048.” Although overfishing is a global problem, we take a look and find that this scenario is unlikely.

Wales has given one vaccination dose against Covid 19 to a larger proportion of their population than any other country except a couple of super tiny ones. They’ve given one vaccine dose to over 80% of their adult population. We explore some reasons why they seem to be doing so well.The UK continues to do poorly at Eurovision – we take a look back over the years to examine why the UK used to do well, and why it doesn’t any more.Waiting lists for NHS treatment across the UK have grown – but why are things so bad in Northern Ireland?Is it true that 42% of young people are living at home with their parents? We find out what a young person is and why they haven’t flown the nest.