

More or Less
BBC Radio 4
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
Episodes
Mentioned books

Nov 28, 2021 • 9min
Simpson’s Paradox: How to make vaccinated death figures misleading
The podcast dives into the controversial claim that vaccinated individuals face higher death rates than the unvaccinated, revealing the misleading nature of this assertion. It explains Simpson's Paradox and how misinterpretation of data can obscure the truth. The discussion includes insights on how age influences vaccination and mortality rates, highlighting the importance of context. Humorously linking confirmation bias to 'Ghostbusters,' the conversation underscores the need for critical thinking when evaluating statistics.

Nov 21, 2021 • 9min
A TikTok tale
A viral TikTok video turned the tables on academic research, dramatically reshaping participant demographics. Teenage girls flocked to studies, presenting new challenges for researchers reliant on online platforms like Prolific. The discussion dives into the ripple effects of social media trends on data collection and the potential pitfalls, including bot interference. Traditional research methods are examined, raising questions about the future of participant recruitment in academia. It's a fascinating look at the unexpected power of social media in the research landscape.

Nov 14, 2021 • 9min
The carbon cost of breakfast at COP26
At COP26, a French minister claimed croissants have a higher carbon cost than bacon rolls, sparking a fascinating discussion. The podcast delves into the carbon footprints of various breakfast items and the surprising impact of plant-based versus animal-based ingredients. It also highlights how cafes are starting to list carbon counts on menus. Listeners are encouraged to consider their breakfast choices and their environmental effects, making for an engaging exploration of food and climate change.

Nov 7, 2021 • 9min
Same data, opposite results. Can we trust research?
Professor Martin Schweinsberg, an Assistant Professor of Organizational Behaviour at ESMT Berlin, discusses the subjective nature of data analysis. He shares his experience of drawing different conclusions from the same data as his peers, raising questions about research trustworthiness. Schweinsberg unpacks the challenges of replicating studies, the complexities of crowd-sourced analysis, and the interpretations that lead to conflicting results. He emphasizes the need for humility in data interpretation, shedding light on the murky waters of research integrity.

Oct 31, 2021 • 9min
The art of counting
Deborah Stone, a political scientist and author at Brandeis University, dives into the intricate world of counting. She explores the pivotal questions of who counts, why, and what they are counting. Stone discusses the complexities of COVID statistics and how varying practices influence public perception. She also highlights the implications of racial categorization in the U.S. census, showing how numbers shape societal views, especially in mixed-race families. The episode emphasizes the subjective nature of data and its profound real-world consequences.

Oct 24, 2021 • 9min
The numbers behind Squid Game
Dive into the cultural phenomenon of Squid Game as the podcast unpacks Netflix's claim of its unprecedented popularity. Explore the chilling odds of surviving the infamous 18-step bridge challenge, complete with mind-bending probability calculations. The conversation delves into the staggering viewer metrics and the recent changes in Netflix's reporting, questioning the authenticity of these figures. It's a captivating blend of entertainment and statistics that reveals the darker side of what makes this series such a hit.

Oct 17, 2021 • 9min
The prize-winning economics of migration and the minimum wage
Discover how groundbreaking research is reshaping our understanding of immigration and wages. Learn about the Mariel Boatlift's surprising impact, debunking the myth that immigrants lower wages for locals. Explore significant findings on minimum wage hikes, revealing they don't necessarily lead to job losses. Join insights from Nobel Prize winners who transformed economic analysis, emphasizing the importance of correlation versus causation. This discussion unveils the often misunderstood connections between migration, wages, and labor markets.

Oct 7, 2021 • 36min
Bonus episode: the first ever More or Less
Michael Blastland, the founding producer, and Sir Andrew Dilnot, the founding presenter, discuss the origins of their groundbreaking series. They reflect on the obstacles they faced in promoting numeracy in journalism and politics. The conversation delves into counting as a coping mechanism for anxiety, while also highlighting the innovative techniques used in helping Parkinson's patients through rhythm. Additionally, they tackle the implications of NHS spending decisions, emphasizing the need for better numerical skills in public discourse.

Oct 6, 2021 • 28min
Twenty years of More or Less
Reflecting on two decades of statistical exploration, the show revisits its roots with the original presenter and producer. It tackles discrepancies in vaccination rates, comparing UK figures and international challenges. Surprising insights reveal how front door color may influence property value. Misconceptions about TV standby power and children's swimming skills are debunked, while a lively discussion analyzes the logic behind Spock's character. The dynamic between Kirk and Spock illustrates the balance of emotion and reason in human nature.

Oct 3, 2021 • 9min
The Gender Pay Gap
Joining the discussion is Stacey Vanek-Smith, a reporter for NPR and author of Machiavelli for Women. She shares insights on the gender pay gap, revealing startling statistics that show the persistent disparity between men and women’s earnings. The talk examines the impact of salary transparency measures in the UK and new rules in Colorado, highlighting their mixed outcomes. Stacey also offers practical strategies for women to navigate these challenges, urging them to harness negotiation skills and research to advocate for fair pay.


