More or Less: Behind the Stats Simpson’s Paradox: How to make vaccinated death figures misleading
Nov 28, 2021
The podcast dives into the controversial claim that vaccinated individuals face higher death rates than the unvaccinated, revealing the misleading nature of this assertion. It explains Simpson's Paradox and how misinterpretation of data can obscure the truth. The discussion includes insights on how age influences vaccination and mortality rates, highlighting the importance of context. Humorously linking confirmation bias to 'Ghostbusters,' the conversation underscores the need for critical thinking when evaluating statistics.
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Misleading Vaccination Data
- Vaccinated individuals showed higher death rates than unvaccinated in England for ages 10-59.
- This contradicts the known effectiveness of vaccines and hints at Simpson's Paradox.
Simpson's Paradox in Vaccination Data
- ONS data reveals higher all-cause death rates for vaccinated people aged 10-59.
- Stuart MacDonald, an actuary, investigated this seemingly paradoxical finding.
Simpson's Paradox Explained
- Simpson's Paradox is when a trend appears in a broad group, but reverses when divided into subgroups.
- Vaccinated people had higher death rates overall, but lower within specific age groups.