More or Less

Daisy Christodoulou, an education policy specialist, and Chris Vernazza, a paediatric dentistry expert, join a fact-checking tour of the headlines. They examine children’s dental health, claims about Israeli pharmaceuticals, rising NEET rates and Michael Gove’s reforms. The discussion also tackles AI extinction predictions and whether complex future risks can really be reduced to a single number.

Zeke Hausfather, a Berkeley Earth climate scientist and Stripe’s climate research lead, explores whether the latest El Niño could be the strongest in centuries, or even 1,000 years. They unpack how scientists measure these events, why forecasts point to a potentially record-breaking peak, and the risks for global heat, drought, crops and famine. Coral records reveal how today’s extremes compare with the distant past.

Cassia Rowland, an Institute for Government criminal justice researcher, explores the surge in prison recalls. Economist and author Duncan Weldon examines Britain’s elusive millionaire count. Environmental researcher Hannah Ritchie unpacks contradictory wildfire statistics, while BBC reporter and producer Lizzy McNeill investigates the astonishing claim that seagulls steal £171 million of food. Four numerical mysteries, one lively fact-checking journey.

Matt Parker, an Australian mathematician, comedian, author, and creator of Stand-up Maths, brings a deck of cards and some huge calculations. He and Tim Harford explore why shuffled decks are almost certainly unique, how factorials and combinatorics count possible arrangements, and why matching a historical shuffle is effectively impossible. Expect billions, mind-boggling numbers, and wildly improbable experiments.

Six bite-sized statistics explore the Norman invasion of England, from the surprisingly modest armies at Hastings and undersized war horses to Yorkshire’s devastation after the conquest. Discover how Norman rule transformed land ownership, reshaped English vocabulary, and popularised Norman names and hereditary surnames.

Lukas Lehner, assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh who researches labour and welfare statistics, walks through how sick-leave numbers are counted. He explains insurer administrative data, calendar vs working-day measures, OECD harmonisation and why countries like Norway, Spain and the UK differ. Short, clear takes on pay, job protection and long absences driving cross-country variation.

Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo MapMen and a geography communicator, breaks down unclaimed corners of the map. He explains how oceans make up most unowned surface. He tells the strange stories of terra nullius, Antarctica’s Marie Byrd Land, Bir Tawil and river-shift disputes like Gornja Siga. The conclusion: nearly all unowned area is sea, land is vanishingly small.

Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data and Oxford researcher in global data, breaks down how USAID worked and why counting lives linked to aid is complicated. She explains the scale of US aid, how researchers estimate impacts, the limits of those projections, and why claims of zero or 14 million deaths are both oversimplified.

Robin Wigglesworth, Financial Times journalist and author of A Fabulous Debt, explores how to measure vast fortunes. He explains global money measures like M2 and why billionaires’ net worths swing with markets. He walks through what Musk’s paper wealth would look like in cash, why he cannot simply cash out, and how to compare stock, real estate and cash to total global wealth.

Faisal Islam, BBC economics editor, brings behavioural economics expertise. He unpacks why most people prefer a sure £50,000 to a 50/50 shot at £1m. Short takes cover expected value misconceptions, Bernoulli’s diminishing utility, prospect theory and loss aversion, and how income and demographics shape risk choices.