More or Less

Nathan Gower, a diligent reporter focused on investigative segments, discusses the NHS's warning about an unprecedented flu season and what the data really shows. He also unpacks the early timing of flu cases, explaining why the peak isn't as alarming as it seems. Meanwhile, Justin Wolfers, an esteemed economics professor, dismantles the notion of 20-25% annual GDP growth for the US, citing historical patterns and the reality of sustainable growth. They tackle hot topics like emigration trends and prison release errors, exposing myths with data-driven insights.

Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and research lead at Stripe, dives into the controversies surrounding the RCP 8.5 climate scenario that shaped early 21st-century predictions of global warming. He explains how this worst-case scenario was misinterpreted as a business-as-usual pathway, leading to inflated temperature projections. Hausfather discusses the shift towards renewable energy sources and how our updated understanding estimates a more realistic temperature increase of 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius. It's a crucial conversation about adapting our climate strategies.

Professor Allan Pacey is an expert in male fertility from the University of Manchester, while Adith Arun is a Yale researcher specializing in testosterone data. They dissect a controversial claim about declining sperm counts and testosterone levels among U.S. teenagers compared to older men. Pacey highlights the complexities in sperm quality studies, while Arun reveals how changes in testing methods have distorted testosterone trends. Both warn against misinterpretation leading to unnecessary treatments that could harm fertility.

Join Richard Thaler, a Nobel laureate and pioneer of behavioral economics, as he delves into the fascinating world of decision-making anomalies. He explains the winner's curse through an engaging jelly bean auction experiment, revealing how auction winners often overestimate value. Thaler also discusses mental accounting, illustrating how we categorize money into budgets and how it influences our spending choices. With humor and insight, he shares real-world examples, reaffirming the importance of behavioral economics in understanding human behavior.

Simon French, Chief Economist at Panmure Liberum, and Katie Martin, Markets columnist at the Financial Times, dive into the booming stock market driven by AI excitement. They discuss the $28–30 trillion rally, the challenges of identifying AI stocks, and the alarming historical valuations reminiscent of the dot-com era. Katie highlights the concentration of power in the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants, raising single-point failure risks. Both experts caution on the parallels with past market bubbles, urging careful risk management as warning signals intensify.

Bernie Sanders says a vast amount of wealth - $50 trillion - has moved from 90% of the population to the wealthiest Americans since the 1970s. The figure comes from a study by Carter Price, a senior mathematician at nonprofit research institute the RAND Corporation.Tim Harford speaks to Carter to understand how he calculated his figures and what they really mean.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nicolas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

Dianna Magliano, a diabetes epidemiologist and co-author of the Diabetes Atlas, dives into the alarming rise of diabetes worldwide. She debunks claims that 50% of China's population is diabetic, noting the actual rate is around 11.9%. Dianna discusses how urbanization, changing diets, and genetics have fueled this surge in diabetes rates. They also highlight the concerning trend of type 2 diabetes appearing in younger populations and express cautious optimism about improving lifestyles in wealthier countries.

Historian Dénes Harai, known for his work on early modern history, dives into the dark legacy of Vlad III Dracula, famously dubbed 'Vlad the Impaler.' He explores whether the claim of over 20,000 impalements is fact or fiction. Harai dissects contemporary accounts versus exaggerated pamphlets, revealing that a more accurate estimate is around 2,000 victims. He discusses the political context of Vlad's reign and the brutal medieval punishment of impalement, giving listeners an intriguing glimpse into the math behind the myth.

Corinne Lowe, an associate professor at the Wharton School and author of 'Feminomics,' delves into the dynamics of housework and gender. She reveals that while women have increased their paid work, their unpaid labor at home remains disproportionately high. Shockingly, even female breadwinners are still doing twice as much housework as their male partners. Corinne challenges traditional economic theories, arguing that entrenched gender roles are the real culprits behind this imbalance. Tune in for insights that could change your perspective on household responsibilities!

This week, the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences celebrates Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their groundbreaking work on innovation-driven growth. Discover why economic growth is key to improving living standards. Explore Mokyr's insights into the Industrial Revolution's growth surge and the intriguing concept of creative destruction, where new technologies disrupt old industries. Lastly, delve into the Aghion-Howitt model that links incentives in research to sustainable economic progress.