

More or Less
BBC Radio 4
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
Episodes
Mentioned books

33 snips
Jan 28, 2026 • 29min
Can you get £71,000 on benefits?
Tom Coles, the programme’s self-styled sauna correspondent, Lizzy McNeill, a sharp fact-checker, and Joe Shalam, policy director at the Centre for Social Justice, unpack the £71,000 benefits claim. They examine how the figure is built, compare household versus individual income, probe incentives and disability rules, and also check related factoids about crime stats, GDP slips and a sauna temperature quirk.

29 snips
Jan 24, 2026 • 9min
Is Greenland as big as Africa?
Jay Foreman, YouTuber and map expert, explains how familiar flat maps warp our view of the world. He breaks down why the Mercator projection balloons Greenland, compares its real size to Africa and India, and explores alternative map projections. Short, surprising geography explained with clear examples.

59 snips
Jan 21, 2026 • 29min
How close is Greenland to the United States?
In this fascinating discussion, guests Jay Foreman, a comedic map YouTuber, and Tom Colls, an investigative reporter, delve into some surprising geographical truths. Jay reveals that Greenland is approximately 1,200 miles from the US, debunking the 300-mile myth stemming from misleading map projections. Tom breaks down the staggering £7.6 trillion net zero cost claim, clarifying it as total energy system spending rather than a direct expenditure. The conversation also touches on fluctuating UK house prices and the strategic math behind the game The Traitors.

29 snips
Jan 17, 2026 • 9min
No, a study has not shown that the covid jab causes cancer
In this discussion, Professor Justin Fendos, an expert in cancer and biophysics, debunks a controversial South Korean study that claims a 27% increase in cancer risk from COVID vaccinations. He explains the study's limitations, including inadequate peer review and the omission of key variables like genetics and lifestyle factors. Fendos emphasizes that the timeline of cancer diagnosis is too short to link it to the vaccine and notes that high vaccination rates in South Korea contradict the study's findings, ultimately concluding there's no evidence of a causal connection.

36 snips
Jan 14, 2026 • 28min
Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT?
In this discussion, Tom Coles, a reporter investigating private school closures, dives into whether 105 schools really shut due to VAT policies. Professor Sir John Curtice debunks claims of a church attendance revival, revealing a significant decline instead. Nathan Gower challenges the government’s assertion that 10.8 million families rely on X (Twitter) for news, uncovering misleading data. Together, they unpack numerical claims in the news, revealing surprising truths and clarifying public misunderstandings.

55 snips
Jan 10, 2026 • 9min
Does Venezuela really have the biggest oil reserves in the world?
Artem Abramov, the lead of oil and gas research at Rystad Energy, dives into Venezuela's complex oil landscape. He discusses how Venezuela boasts 300 billion barrels of oil reserves, yet production has plummeted due to economic mismanagement. Abramov addresses why reserve estimates have remained stagnant over decades and evaluates the feasibility of restoring production within 18 months. He also highlights the challenges of extracting Venezuela's heavy oil and offers insights into the costs and timeline for revitalizing the oil industry.

111 snips
Jan 9, 2026 • 29min
The Stats of the Nation: Immigration, benefits and inequality
In this enlightening discussion, Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory, dives into the fascinating dynamics of UK immigration, revealing that 98% of population growth stems from this factor. Lukas Lehner, a welfare expert, critiques the UK’s low benefit spending compared to peers and highlights a rise in mental health-related incapacity claims. Arun Advani addresses income inequality, showing a modest rise in the top 1% share but a decline in wealth disparity over time, while public trust in government remains alarmingly low.

61 snips
Jan 8, 2026 • 29min
The Stats of the Nation: Older people, education, prisons and the weather
Heidi Karjalainen, a senior research economist, reveals that nearly 22% of pensioners in the UK are millionaires, while also highlighting the ongoing challenges of pensioner poverty. John Jerrim shares insights on education, explaining how England has improved in PISA rankings, raising questions about methodological fairness. Cassia Rowland addresses the looming crisis in UK prisons, detailing overcrowding and emergency policies. Meanwhile, Friederike Otto discusses the realities of climate change, showing how UK weather patterns are becoming increasingly erratic.

75 snips
Jan 7, 2026 • 29min
The Stats of the Nation: Sex, drugs and empty homes
Join Lizzy McNeill, a keen reporter on housing issues, as she reveals the shocking truth about 700,000 empty homes in the UK and their potential to help the housing crisis. Nathan Gower dives into the nuances of violent crime statistics, contrasting police records with surveys for a clearer picture. Meanwhile, Professor Jennifer Dowd breaks down the alarming drop in fertility rates, shedding light on childbearing trends and their implications. Together, they provide fascinating insights into the UK’s pressing social challenges.

29 snips
Jan 6, 2026 • 29min
The Stats of the Nation: Health
Stuart McDonald, Head of Longevity at LCP, discusses the stall in UK life expectancy post-COVID and the concerning rise in mortality among younger adults. Ben Zaranko from the Institute for Fiscal Studies highlights productivity issues in the NHS and the disappointing lack of new GPs, while Nathan Gower sheds light on rising GP appointment numbers amid a funding shift. Additionally, Jon Shelton from Cancer Research UK examines escalating cancer rates linked to an aging population and the UK's lag in survival rates compared to other nations.


