

More or Less
BBC Radio 4
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
Episodes
Mentioned books

Jan 8, 2026 • 29min
The Stats of the Nation: Older people, education, prisons and the weather
Heidi Karjalainen, a senior research economist, reveals that nearly 22% of pensioners in the UK are millionaires, while also highlighting the ongoing challenges of pensioner poverty. John Jerrim shares insights on education, explaining how England has improved in PISA rankings, raising questions about methodological fairness. Cassia Rowland addresses the looming crisis in UK prisons, detailing overcrowding and emergency policies. Meanwhile, Friederike Otto discusses the realities of climate change, showing how UK weather patterns are becoming increasingly erratic.

36 snips
Jan 7, 2026 • 29min
The Stats of the Nation: Sex, drugs and empty homes
Join Lizzy McNeill, a keen reporter on housing issues, as she reveals the shocking truth about 700,000 empty homes in the UK and their potential to help the housing crisis. Nathan Gower dives into the nuances of violent crime statistics, contrasting police records with surveys for a clearer picture. Meanwhile, Professor Jennifer Dowd breaks down the alarming drop in fertility rates, shedding light on childbearing trends and their implications. Together, they provide fascinating insights into the UK’s pressing social challenges.

18 snips
Jan 6, 2026 • 29min
The Stats of the Nation: Health
Stuart McDonald, Head of Longevity at LCP, discusses the stall in UK life expectancy post-COVID and the concerning rise in mortality among younger adults. Ben Zaranko from the Institute for Fiscal Studies highlights productivity issues in the NHS and the disappointing lack of new GPs, while Nathan Gower sheds light on rising GP appointment numbers amid a funding shift. Additionally, Jon Shelton from Cancer Research UK examines escalating cancer rates linked to an aging population and the UK's lag in survival rates compared to other nations.

60 snips
Jan 5, 2026 • 29min
The Stats of the Nation: The Economy
Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, shares insights on the ongoing impact of the cost-of-living crisis, highlighting how energy shocks and inflation have affected low-income households. Helen Miller, from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, discusses modest economic growth projections and the strain on public services, despite record tax receipts. Meanwhile, Mairi Spowage, an expert on Scottish tax policy, explains how Scotland's tax system benefits lower earners while analyzing the behavior of taxpayers in response to higher tax rates.

19 snips
Jan 3, 2026 • 9min
Numbers of the year 2026
Simon Calder, a travel correspondent and aviation expert, predicts Dubai Airport will soar to 100 million passengers by 2026. Hannah Ritchie, a data scientist, discusses the UN's potential revision of global population peak to 2082, influenced by declining fertility rates, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Football writer Bill Edgar outlines the exciting expansion of the 2026 Men's World Cup to 48 teams, highlighting the extensive travel required for fans. Each guest brings a unique perspective on the numeric future ahead!

43 snips
Dec 31, 2025 • 28min
Numbers of the year 2025
Tim Cross, a science writer at The Economist, dives into the impressive 208 billion transistors of NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU and explores limitations of Moore's Law. John Byrne Murdoch, a data reporter at the Financial Times, analyzes an 8% decline in social media usage, attributing it to shifting cultural trends. James O'Malley, writer and co-host of the Abundance Agenda podcast, critiques the escalating costs of the Sizewell C nuclear project. Lastly, Katie Milkman, a professor at Wharton, shares effective strategies for sticking to New Year's resolutions.

19 snips
Dec 27, 2025 • 9min
Numbers of the year 2025
Thomas Sampson, an economist from the London School of Economics, dives into the intricacies of US tariffs, highlighting their peak at 28% and the calculations behind them. Meanwhile, Hannah Ritchie reveals that China has surpassed one terawatt of solar capacity, rivaling India's electricity output. She discusses the rapid deployment of solar energy amidst challenges in meeting electricity demands. Astrophysicist Catherine Haymans introduces the intriguing 3I Atlas, the third interstellar object, revealing its age of over 7 billion years and its cosmic origins.

31 snips
Dec 24, 2025 • 28min
Were there really Three Wise Men?
Stephen Dubner, journalist and co-author of Freakonomics, joins to discuss the book's 20th anniversary and its surprising insights. He explores why drug dealers often live with their moms, connecting economic theory to unexpected lifestyles. The conversation shifts to controversial topics like abortion's impact on crime. Adding a festive twist, the team debunks the myth of the three wise men, revealing they were never called kings in Matthew's account and discussing their historical context. Expect laughter and unexpected facts throughout!

47 snips
Dec 20, 2025 • 9min
The shocking world of US health costs
Elisabeth Rosenthal, a physician-turned-journalist and editor at KFF Health News, delves into the startling realities of US healthcare costs. She explains why prices for the same medication can skyrocket in hospital settings, highlighting the complexities of hospital markup practices. Rosenthal reveals how the 340B program contributes to inflated charges and discusses the political power that protects these pricing structures. The conversation takes a deeper dive into shocking examples of outrageous bills and the burden of rising medical debt affecting millions.

77 snips
Dec 17, 2025 • 29min
Do we really have ‘superflu’?
Nathan Gower, a diligent reporter focused on investigative segments, discusses the NHS's warning about an unprecedented flu season and what the data really shows. He also unpacks the early timing of flu cases, explaining why the peak isn't as alarming as it seems. Meanwhile, Justin Wolfers, an esteemed economics professor, dismantles the notion of 20-25% annual GDP growth for the US, citing historical patterns and the reality of sustainable growth. They tackle hot topics like emigration trends and prison release errors, exposing myths with data-driven insights.


