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BBC Radio 4
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
Episodes
Mentioned books

39 snips
Oct 18, 2025 • 9min
Nobel economics prize 2025: What's the big idea?
This week, the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences celebrates Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their groundbreaking work on innovation-driven growth. Discover why economic growth is key to improving living standards. Explore Mokyr's insights into the Industrial Revolution's growth surge and the intriguing concept of creative destruction, where new technologies disrupt old industries. Lastly, delve into the Aghion-Howitt model that links incentives in research to sustainable economic progress.

34 snips
Oct 15, 2025 • 29min
Are millions of people getting Motability cars for anxiety and ADHD?
Journalist Nathan Gower delves into the claims about who qualifies for Motability cars, revealing that far fewer people with ADHD and anxiety qualify than suggested. He also discusses proposed changes to inheritance tax for farmers, highlighting how around 30% may face increased burdens. Additionally, he explains Movember's striking statistic about premature male deaths, and Tim Harford explores how data can optimize marathon training. The conversation is a fascinating mix of debunking myths and analyzing critical social metrics.

26 snips
Oct 11, 2025 • 9min
Are 72% of prison inmates in Switzerland foreign?
The podcast dives into the surprising statistic that 72% of Swiss prisoners are foreign nationals, originally highlighted by Trump. Professor Marcelo Aebi explains that geography, crime tourism, and treatment of asylum seekers contribute to this phenomenon. The discussion clarifies who counts as a foreign prisoner and reveals how legal residency impacts conviction rates. High rates of pre-trial detention for foreigners and comparisons with other European countries like Germany and Greece are also explored, shedding light on the complexity behind these numbers.

19 snips
Oct 8, 2025 • 27min
Does half the UK get more in benefits than they pay in tax?
Tim Harford dives into the claim that over half of the UK gets more in benefits than they pay in taxes, revealing surprising truths. He questions whether billionaires can indeed earn more overnight than an entire city. The discussion also explores if older generations are becoming cognitively sharper. And did 77% of Gen Z really bring a parent to job interviews? The investigation reveals flaws in survey methods. Get ready for a statistical rollercoaster through claims and misconceptions!

25 snips
Oct 4, 2025 • 9min
Is the world getting less miserable?
In a world seemingly filled with gloom, new data suggests there’s a global trend of increasing optimism and improved living conditions. Tim Harford chats with Gallup's Benedict Vigers about the positive findings from the Gallup World Poll. Despite local pessimism, it appears more people around the globe are thriving and hopeful for the future. The conversation dives into what these statistics mean for our understanding of progress and well-being in modern society.

22 snips
Oct 1, 2025 • 28min
Has Donald Trump ended seven 'unendable' wars?
Stefan Wolff, a Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, joins to discuss Donald Trump's controversial claim of ending seven 'unendable' wars. He meticulously assesses various long-term conflicts and the implications of high-profile ceasefires. The conversation also touches on the accuracy of recent economic growth claims in the UK and examines the context behind alarming cancer statistics. Wolff's insights provide clarity on complex issues surrounding war, peace, and data interpretation.

38 snips
Sep 27, 2025 • 9min
The Case of the Missing US Data
In early 2025, thousands of US government webpages vanished, creating an uproar. Professors Levinstein and Kubale explain how executive orders and budget cuts led to this data crisis. Key datasets on gender identity and health were altered, impacting crucial research and services. The discussion highlights the importance of the PRAMS dataset for maternal health, and how access has dramatically changed. Concerns about trust and data integrity loom large as efforts emerge to safeguard what's left. Why does this matter? Tune in to find out!

22 snips
Sep 24, 2025 • 29min
Was it easier to deport migrants to France before Brexit?
David Swales, Head of Economics and Analysis for Livestock at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, shares insights on the recent 25% increase in beef prices. He attributes this surge to declining UK and import supplies, unfavorable weather conditions, and changes in subsidies affecting cattle numbers. The discussion also investigates whether Sir Ed Davey's claim about deportations post-Brexit holds water and examines the misinterpretation of UK demographic data by the Bank of England's governor. Tune in for some thought-provoking numbers!

65 snips
Sep 20, 2025 • 9min
Is JD Vance right about left-wing violence?
Lizzy McNeill, a dedicated reporter who specializes in political violence analysis, joins to dissect the contentious claims made by JD Vance concerning left-wing violence. The conversation dives into polling data regarding public perceptions of political violence and explores how definitions and motivations complicate the picture. Lizzy highlights troubling trends where recent attacks have predominately involved right-identified individuals. The episode debates the role of mental illness and the challenges inherent in categorizing violent acts by ideology.

42 snips
Sep 17, 2025 • 29min
Is it true that out-of-work benefits have almost doubled?
Tim Harford dives into the debate over unemployment benefits, confronting claims about their rise and the complexities of the welfare system. Surprising insights reveal that some French pensioners actually earn more than working-age adults. The efficiency of salmon farming is scrutinized, debunking myths about fish feed conversion. Additionally, the podcast challenges the traditional five senses, exploring the idea of up to 53 different sensory modalities, including balance and proprioception. It's a fascinating exploration of statistics and human perception!


