More or Less: Behind the Stats Are Afghan nationals more likely to be convicted of sexual offences?
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Sep 11, 2025 This week, intriguing claims about UK national debt payments being £240 monthly per person are explored. The controversial assertion that Afghan migrants are 22 times more likely to be convicted of sexual offenses is examined, shedding light on data complexities. The impact of menopause on women's work attendance raises critical questions about clarity in surveys. Lastly, a whimsically humorous comparison between the speed of snails and the slow advances in Ukraine provides a lighthearted perspective on serious topics.
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National Debt Interest Varies Month-To-Month
- Monthly interest-on-debt figures vary a lot and June 2024 was unusually high due to big annual payments.
- Averaging the OBR's annual £111bn gives about £135 per person per month, not £240 for every month.
Bond Yields Reflect Expected Rates, Not Just Risk
- UK 10-year gilt yields are higher than Germany's largely because UK inflation and growth expectations differ, not necessarily due to default risk.
- Bond yields mostly reflect expected central bank rates and economic outlook, so cross-country comparisons need context.
Conviction Rates Depend Heavily On Denominators
- The '22 times' claim about Afghan nationals comes from dividing small conviction counts by uncertain population estimates.
- Using different plausible denominators gives lower figures (Madeleine Sumption estimates about 14.5×), so the precise multiplier is sensitive and questionable.
