More or Less: Behind the Stats How weird was the Med Sea heatwave?
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Aug 16, 2025 In July, the Mediterranean Sea hit shocking surface temperatures, sparking a viral claim about a once-in-216 billion years anomaly. Dr. Jules Kajtar dives into the statistics to debunk this myth. The analysis reveals a troubling rise in sea temperatures, escalating by 3 to 4 degrees since the 1980s. Utilizing satellite technology, they discuss how these anomalies represent a significant shift due to climate change. The conversation also unpacks statistical modeling techniques, including Gaussian distributions, to provide deeper insights into this alarming trend.
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Recent Mediterranean Warming Is Clear
- Satellite records show Mediterranean surface temperatures have risen about 1.5°C above the 1985–2005 mean in recent years.
- Jules Kajtar highlights that the last four years are the warmest on the satellite record, showing a clear warming trend.
Early July Local Temperature Extremes
- In early July, surface temperatures off the south coast of France reached about 27.7°C versus a 1985–2005 average near 20.28°C.
- Jules Kajtar notes some local anomalies reached 5–8°C above the reference period in quiet coastal waters.
Misusing Gaussian Fits Inflates Rarity
- The viral '1-in-216 billion years' claim likely came from fitting anomalies to a Gaussian distribution without checking fit quality.
- Jules explains Gaussian fits use mean and standard deviation, which can massively misrepresent tail probabilities if data aren't normal.