More or Less: Behind the Stats

Journalist Nathan Gower delves into the claims about who qualifies for Motability cars, revealing that far fewer people with ADHD and anxiety qualify than suggested. He also discusses proposed changes to inheritance tax for farmers, highlighting how around 30% may face increased burdens. Additionally, he explains Movember's striking statistic about premature male deaths, and Tim Harford explores how data can optimize marathon training. The conversation is a fascinating mix of debunking myths and analyzing critical social metrics.

The podcast dives into the surprising statistic that 72% of Swiss prisoners are foreign nationals, originally highlighted by Trump. Professor Marcelo Aebi explains that geography, crime tourism, and treatment of asylum seekers contribute to this phenomenon. The discussion clarifies who counts as a foreign prisoner and reveals how legal residency impacts conviction rates. High rates of pre-trial detention for foreigners and comparisons with other European countries like Germany and Greece are also explored, shedding light on the complexity behind these numbers.

Tim Harford dives into the claim that over half of the UK gets more in benefits than they pay in taxes, revealing surprising truths. He questions whether billionaires can indeed earn more overnight than an entire city. The discussion also explores if older generations are becoming cognitively sharper. And did 77% of Gen Z really bring a parent to job interviews? The investigation reveals flaws in survey methods. Get ready for a statistical rollercoaster through claims and misconceptions!

In a world seemingly filled with gloom, new data suggests there’s a global trend of increasing optimism and improved living conditions. Tim Harford chats with Gallup's Benedict Vigers about the positive findings from the Gallup World Poll. Despite local pessimism, it appears more people around the globe are thriving and hopeful for the future. The conversation dives into what these statistics mean for our understanding of progress and well-being in modern society.

Stefan Wolff, a Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, joins to discuss Donald Trump's controversial claim of ending seven 'unendable' wars. He meticulously assesses various long-term conflicts and the implications of high-profile ceasefires. The conversation also touches on the accuracy of recent economic growth claims in the UK and examines the context behind alarming cancer statistics. Wolff's insights provide clarity on complex issues surrounding war, peace, and data interpretation.

In early 2025, thousands of US government webpages vanished, creating an uproar. Professors Levinstein and Kubale explain how executive orders and budget cuts led to this data crisis. Key datasets on gender identity and health were altered, impacting crucial research and services. The discussion highlights the importance of the PRAMS dataset for maternal health, and how access has dramatically changed. Concerns about trust and data integrity loom large as efforts emerge to safeguard what's left. Why does this matter? Tune in to find out!

David Swales, Head of Economics and Analysis for Livestock at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, shares insights on the recent 25% increase in beef prices. He attributes this surge to declining UK and import supplies, unfavorable weather conditions, and changes in subsidies affecting cattle numbers. The discussion also investigates whether Sir Ed Davey's claim about deportations post-Brexit holds water and examines the misinterpretation of UK demographic data by the Bank of England's governor. Tune in for some thought-provoking numbers!

Lizzy McNeill, a dedicated reporter who specializes in political violence analysis, joins to dissect the contentious claims made by JD Vance concerning left-wing violence. The conversation dives into polling data regarding public perceptions of political violence and explores how definitions and motivations complicate the picture. Lizzy highlights troubling trends where recent attacks have predominately involved right-identified individuals. The episode debates the role of mental illness and the challenges inherent in categorizing violent acts by ideology.

Tim Harford dives into the debate over unemployment benefits, confronting claims about their rise and the complexities of the welfare system. Surprising insights reveal that some French pensioners actually earn more than working-age adults. The efficiency of salmon farming is scrutinized, debunking myths about fish feed conversion. Additionally, the podcast challenges the traditional five senses, exploring the idea of up to 53 different sensory modalities, including balance and proprioception. It's a fascinating exploration of statistics and human perception!

The CEO of Nvidia sounds the alarm on a potential 50 million worker shortage by 2030, with humanoid robots seen as a possible solution. Expert Rajiv Gupta joins to unpack the dubious origins of this statistic and the role of AI in shaping the future job market. It’s a deep dive into job demand trends and the paradox of labor shortages alongside unemployment. The conversation also touches on necessary interventions like wage increases and how automation and immigration could play a key role. Tune in for a thought-provoking analysis!