More or Less: Behind the Stats

Explore the intriguing history of statistical proofs, from estimating German tank production in WWII to modern day predictions amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Discover the challenges of validating data and how innovative methods have shaped our understanding. Uncover the fascinating work of a hero in statistics who highlighted the differences between breast milk and cow's milk. Plus, delve into the complexities of confounders in research, especially regarding childbirth and breast cancer risk. Statistics has never been more captivating!

What is the true monetary value of a human life? Explore the varying prices through the lens of bereavement payouts and the dark world of contract killing. A former mafia operative sheds light on the economics of taking a life, revealing how desperation drives costs. The discussion also dives into the financial hardships of fertility treatments, illustrating how experiences differ for couples. Ultimately, the conversation highlights charitable efforts that make a positive difference in saving lives.

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs?What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat?When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze?And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This episode was originally broadcast on the 9th April.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The discussion dives into the controversial tariffs introduced by Trump, questioning their supposed purpose of addressing trade imbalances. Tariff calculations reveal complexities that challenge the administration's claims. The podcast further examines the exclusion of service exports in trade calculations, shedding light on how countries can still thrive despite apparent deficits. Misconceptions about bilateral trade deficits are addressed, encouraging a broader perspective on global trade dynamics.

Lizzy McNeill, a correspondent specializing in economic issues, joins economist Duncan Weldon to debate whether one in four people in the UK is disabled. They delve into disability statistics and clarify the criteria for classification, challenging common perceptions. The conversation also touches on the broader economic implications of disability on the workforce, as well as government financial policies, providing insights into how these factors affect public spending and individual lives.

Discover the surprising twists in U.S.-Canada relations, as tariffs spark controversy and political tension. The discussion unpacks President Trump's claims of an exaggerated $200 billion subsidy and clarifies the true nuances of trade dynamics. Delve into the impact of a 25% tariff on Canadian car imports, and challenge misconceptions surrounding Canada’s role in the opioid crisis. By examining these critical issues, the conversation sheds light on the complexities of maintaining a strong border relationship amid growing economic friction.

The discussion kicks off with the proposed 2% wealth tax to potentially raise £24 billion, unpacking the numbers behind it. There’s a deep dive into why the UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe, linking it to the Industrial Revolution. The Office for National Statistics' recent valuation changes on pensions have stirred debate, knocking off £2 trillion from wealth estimates. Finally, the origins and flexible nature of Lent are explored, revealing fascinating historical insights.

Astronomers recently identified a potentially dangerous asteroid, 2024 YR4, measuring between 40 and 90 meters. Initially, the odds of it hitting Earth in 2032 spiked from 1% to 3%, igniting public concern. As Tim Harford discusses, tracking these celestial threats is essential, especially as probabilities can rapidly change. Historic asteroid encounters provide context for understanding the risks involved. The conversation emphasizes advancements in monitoring techniques, reinforcing the global need for vigilance against such cosmic dangers.

Lizzy McNeill, a reporter specializing in data analysis for news stories, joins the discussion to unravel the sharp increase in disability benefit claims in the UK, particularly post-pandemic. She highlights the impact of mental health issues and the cost of living crisis on this trend. The conversation also tackles controversial comparisons between the UK's and Russia's handling of free speech, emphasizing the need for accurate data. Additionally, they explore the deterioration of important statistical sources which complicate understanding societal trends.

The lockdown drastically altered children's lives, overshadowing their limited risk from COVID-19. Young students faced significant learning loss, with assessments revealing concerning declines in writing skills. Child development challenges intensified, especially for preschoolers, alongside rising school absenteeism rates. Mental health issues surged, with increased anxiety and loneliness among youth. Despite some recovery in educational progress, disparities remain, particularly affecting lower-income families, highlighting a widening achievement gap.