Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

Marcel Dirsus, a political scientist specializing in the survival of dictatorships, shares intriguing insights into why some autocratic regimes endure while others collapse. He discusses the fragility of dictatorships despite their apparent stability and reveals how echo chambers can distort decision-making, using Putin as an example. The conversation dives into historical cases, like the fall of communist regimes in Eastern Europe, and highlights warning signs that can signal a regime's impending downfall. Dirsus also explores economic pressures and the internal dynamics that affect regime longevity.

In this insightful discussion, Paul Scharre, a leading expert on autonomous weapons from the Center for Naval Analyses, dives deep into the implications of machines making life-and-death decisions on the battlefield. He explores the current state of autonomous drones in Ukraine and the technical challenges they face. Scharre highlights the ethical risks associated with removing human oversight and warns about the potential escalation of conflict due to misinterpretations by autonomous systems. Prepare for a thought-provoking look at the future of warfare!

In this engaging discussion, John Bolton, former U.S. National Security Advisor and U.N. Ambassador, shares his insights on Trump's foreign policy style. He reveals how Trump's transactional approach shapes decision-making, especially regarding Ukraine and relations with leaders like Putin and Xi. Bolton expresses concern over Taiwan's future and critiques the National Security Council's diminished role. He warns that Trump's rhetoric often contradicts action, undermining U.S. credibility and alliances, while emphasizing the importance of personal relationships in international diplomacy.

Tensions rise as the U.S. questions its commitment to defend Taiwan against China. The discussion delves into why the Trump administration might not support Taiwan and explores the implications of shifting U.S. rhetoric. Would America risk war for Taiwan? The host warns that declining U.S. support could empower pro-appeasement sentiments in Taiwan. A quiet victory for China’s strategy may result in Taiwan ceding independence without conflict. Future leadership changes could severely impact trust, making fallback options risky.

General Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, shares insights on the evolving war in Ukraine. He discusses how Ukraine's new strategies are shifting Western confidence and the detrimental impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Hodges assesses Russia's manpower issues and opines that their ability to sustain the war is dwindling. He remains optimistic about Ukraine's prospects and emphasizes the importance of consistent Western support while critiquing Europe's response to Russian provocations.

In a captivating discussion, Dan Wang, a Fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of *Breakneck*, dives into the US-China competition. He highlights China's ambitious 2049 goals, showcasing its engineering-led governance. Wang explains how this approach influences social policies and technological advancements. He contrasts China's unique blend of authoritarianism and market-driven success with the Soviet Union's challenges, providing a nuanced view of its future while addressing significant economic and political risks.

In this engaging discussion, Michael Hirsh, a seasoned foreign policy journalist at Foreign Policy, delves into the resurgence of realism in U.S. foreign policy. He contrasts realism with liberal internationalism, exploring how recent global events have shaped this shift. The conversation touches on the implications of a realist approach for U.S. relations with Ukraine, Europe, and China. Hirsh also analyzes the evolving perspectives of prominent figures like J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, discussing how they impact the Republican Party's future foreign policy direction.

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/This is a conversation with Jaak Tarien about two pretty big things that happened recently - the incursion of Russian drones that were shot down by Poland in its airspace and an incursion of Russian fighter jets into Estonia that were escorted by Italian F-35s out of the country. Jaak is a former Brigadier General in the Estonian Armed Forces who served in several high ranking roles in both the Estonian military and in NATO and finished his career as the Commander of Estonia’s Air Force. He retired in 2018 and today he is an executive in an Estonian startup developing military drone technology and so he is the perfect guest to talk to today.With Jaak we discuss what both of those incidents mean - what was his view on how Poland dealt with the Russian drones in its airspace and what’s a better and more sustainable way to deal with that than deploying extremely expensive guided rockets against much much cheaper drones. We talk about how should Estonia and NATO deal with Russian jets flying into its territory - whether they should be shot down like some people argue, who would be actually doing that and how if it were to happen, what does the example of Turkey shooting down a Russian fighter jet in 2015 in its airspace tell us about it or why is Russia actually doing these incursions - what is it trying to achieve and whether NATO shooting its down its jets could be exactly the reaction that Russia is trying to provoke.

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/This is a conversation with Francis Farrell - a reporter for Kyiv Independent and someone who spends a good amount of time directly on the frontline in Ukraine, embedded with various Ukrainian military units. And who, because of that, has a unique, first-hand perspective about what the war on a tactical, ground level actually looks like today and how is it changing day to day. We talk about who’s actually winning today, what is the trajectory of the war and how has that trajectory been evolving. We talk about a number of new tactics and tech that have appeared on the frontlines over the past months and how they have been fundamentally changing the fighting and what new tactics are both Ukrainians and Russians adopting right now. And also about Ukraine’s manpower issues, whether they are being fixed and how much they affect the Ukrainian war effort or what impact the events of this year had on public opinion in Ukraine - and much more.

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/This is a conversation with Patrick McGee, and it’s perhaps a bit of an unusual episode. Patrick is an author of a book called Apple in China tells the story of how the world’s most valuable company came to China to use it for its own benefit—only to discover, over time, that it was Apple being used, trapped, and effectively working for the Chinese state instead. But despite the title, this isn’t just about Apple. It’s really a story of how China changed over two decades - how it gained leverage over Western corporations, squeezed them for everything from know-how to capital, and used them to build homegrown rivals now competing globally. It’s a story about how China uses economic dependency to build political influence and uses political influence to create economic dependency. And about how aggressive, smart and strategic China can be when pushing for its interests and how the West to its own detriment often fails to see that until it's too late. Even though the story is from the perspective of a private company, the story is just as much about China, the West, and their relationship—which is why I think it’s deeply relevant for geopolitics.