Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/This is a conversation with Gabrielus Landsbergis. Gabrielus is a visiting fellow at the Stanford University’s Institute for International Studies and former minister of foreign affairs of Lithuania - a role that he held between 2020 and 2024. Like many of his Baltic colleagues he held and holds a very hawkish view on Russia, on supporting Ukraine and on European defense and security.But what makes him unique is that he’s also extremely openly critical of European leadership on all these issues - criticizing what he calls Europe’s appeasement of Trump, weak lack of support for Ukraine and indecisiveness in facing Russia - all the while he has personal first-hand experience with the same leadership he’s criticizing. He has been in many of the rooms where the decisions and policies were made and he knows the leaders taking them. And so we discuss the ongoing negotiations over the U.S. 28 point peace plan proposal, the European response to it, what’s going to come out of it and what Europe should be doing instead. And we also talk about Europe’s geopolitical strategy or the lack thereof in general - why does Europe seem to be stuck in a strategic impotence unable to take the lead or responsibility for itself, whether it’s starting to change or how it should be dealing with America led by Donald Trump and much more.

In this conversation, Victor Davis Hanson, a military historian and senior fellow, makes a compelling case for Donald Trump as the West's 'tragic hero.' He discusses how Trump's negotiation strategies impacted NATO spending and weakened Russian influence in the Middle East. Hanson also highlights Trump’s belief in negotiating peace in Ukraine and examines the coherence of Trump's foreign policy as a push for American strength. With insights on military renewal and support for Ukraine, Hanson's perspectives challenge common criticisms of Trump.

In this thought-provoking discussion, Francis Fukuyama, a renowned political scientist from Stanford, revisits his influential work on the 'End of History.' He explains common misconceptions and discusses why history seems to be reversing, highlighting democratic backsliding and the rise of populism. Fukuyama connects this trend to the unexpected impact of social media on shared facts and democracy's fragile state. He provides insights on the challenges facing liberal democracy today and why he still believes in its endurance.

In this engaging discussion, Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and former UK diplomat, highlights Russia's shifting strategy in the Ukraine war. He argues that Moscow is losing its time advantage, prompting a more aggressive stance. Gould-Davies explores how Western support for Ukraine and Russia's economic strains are shaping the conflict's trajectory. He also critiques Putin's missed diplomatic opportunities and assesses the implications of NATO's military commitments for Europe's security.

Marcel Dirsus, a political scientist specializing in the survival of dictatorships, shares intriguing insights into why some autocratic regimes endure while others collapse. He discusses the fragility of dictatorships despite their apparent stability and reveals how echo chambers can distort decision-making, using Putin as an example. The conversation dives into historical cases, like the fall of communist regimes in Eastern Europe, and highlights warning signs that can signal a regime's impending downfall. Dirsus also explores economic pressures and the internal dynamics that affect regime longevity.

In this insightful discussion, Paul Scharre, a leading expert on autonomous weapons from the Center for Naval Analyses, dives deep into the implications of machines making life-and-death decisions on the battlefield. He explores the current state of autonomous drones in Ukraine and the technical challenges they face. Scharre highlights the ethical risks associated with removing human oversight and warns about the potential escalation of conflict due to misinterpretations by autonomous systems. Prepare for a thought-provoking look at the future of warfare!

In this engaging discussion, John Bolton, former U.S. National Security Advisor and U.N. Ambassador, shares his insights on Trump's foreign policy style. He reveals how Trump's transactional approach shapes decision-making, especially regarding Ukraine and relations with leaders like Putin and Xi. Bolton expresses concern over Taiwan's future and critiques the National Security Council's diminished role. He warns that Trump's rhetoric often contradicts action, undermining U.S. credibility and alliances, while emphasizing the importance of personal relationships in international diplomacy.

Tensions rise as the U.S. questions its commitment to defend Taiwan against China. The discussion delves into why the Trump administration might not support Taiwan and explores the implications of shifting U.S. rhetoric. Would America risk war for Taiwan? The host warns that declining U.S. support could empower pro-appeasement sentiments in Taiwan. A quiet victory for China’s strategy may result in Taiwan ceding independence without conflict. Future leadership changes could severely impact trust, making fallback options risky.

General Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, shares insights on the evolving war in Ukraine. He discusses how Ukraine's new strategies are shifting Western confidence and the detrimental impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Hodges assesses Russia's manpower issues and opines that their ability to sustain the war is dwindling. He remains optimistic about Ukraine's prospects and emphasizes the importance of consistent Western support while critiquing Europe's response to Russian provocations.

In a captivating discussion, Dan Wang, a Fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of *Breakneck*, dives into the US-China competition. He highlights China's ambitious 2049 goals, showcasing its engineering-led governance. Wang explains how this approach influences social policies and technological advancements. He contrasts China's unique blend of authoritarianism and market-driven success with the Soviet Union's challenges, providing a nuanced view of its future while addressing significant economic and political risks.