Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

The age of human infantry is slowly inching to its end. And it's closer than you might think.Ukraine is already running drone-only assaults. Commercial sector is quickly ramping up development and production of sophisticated humanoid robots. And when the next major war breaks out, the first thing to disappear might be human soldiers on the front line.

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comWith the war in Ukraine still ongoing, it’s not surprising that conventional warfare usually dominates the headlines but underneath this traditional battlefield there are other types of conflict taking place as well that are a lot more quiet but just as consequential. From covert influence operations, proxy militias to economic pressure and cyberattacks, countries like Iran, Russia, and China have become extremely good at waging wars that don't look like wars in the traditional sense. But that can be just as powerful and sometimes even more effective. And while this kind of warfare isn’t new, it feels like we’ve entered a golden age of it.And so in this conversation, I spoke with Seth Jones, Director of the International Security Program at CSIS, and one of the leading experts on irregular warfare on the different tactics and strategies of the three leading hybrid warfare powers —Iran, Russia, and China. We discuss the strengths and vulnerabilities of each country's approach, the effectiveness of their influence operations, why the U.S. seems to lag behind in this area or what role hybrid warfare plays in the war in Ukraine and much more.

Viktor Orbán, Hungary's Prime Minister, has a big problem.After dominating Hungary for the past 15 years, unchallenged, unbothered, and admired by populists everywhere, polls now show that he’s losing to a new opponent, with elections less than a year away.And it looks like his challenger found a strategy that - if successful - many European politicians might be tempted to try as well.

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comIn the current war in Ukraine, there is likely no other topic that would be both so important and so wildly misunderstood as the issue of the Russian economy. The importance is quite obvious - without a functioning economy, Russia wouldn't be able to finance the war. But in terms of how the economy is actually doing and how will it do in the future, that’s much less clear - and the views range from Russian economy being an unstoppable juggernaut with sanctions only making it stronger to the Russian economy collapsing since the first day of the war - neither of which are actually accurate. After all, most people are not economists and this is largely an unprecedented situation.And so, I decided to speak with someone who both knows more about this than anyone else and who is able to give a very pragmatic and objective view of where we stand: an expert on the Russian economy Janis Kluge, from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. And so in this conversation, we talk about how the Russian economy is actually doing. How long can Russia actually afford to finance the war, what kind of economic damage it would take to force to rethink its plan for Ukraine and whether that is likely to happen, whether the Russian economy is overheating and what does that really mean or what would happen if the war ends and the money stops flowing into the economy - and whether the Russian government can afford that.

This is a conversation with Mujtaba Rahman. Mij is what you would call an insider of European politics. He leads the European section of the Eurasia Group and a big part of his job is to know what is going on behind the scenes, not just what you can read in the news but what European leaders really think, say and do when there are no cameras. And so it was a perfect opportunity to dive deep into European politics. We talked about whether Europe has a strategy for what do with Ukraine and Russia, what do European leaders really think about Donald Trump behind closed doors and how are they already preparing for Europe without the U.S. Or how likely is it that anti-establishment politicians in France, UK or Germany will dominate elections in the coming years and completely turn all those policies upside down. I think it’s a fascinating conversation and it’s always a pleasure to talk to someone who knows so much. ➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Anschel Pfeffer, a veteran journalist and the correspondent for the Economist based in Israel. And in this conversation, we talk about two things. About Israel’s changing foreign policy - why is it growing increasingly expansionist, how has it fundamentally changed since the October 7th, whether Israel will attack Iran, why the Israeli military is starting to be dangerously overstretched or why the Trump-Netenyahu bromance is already over.But before we get to that, we dive quite deep into what’s increasingly shaping Israel’s foreign policy - its domestic political crisis, growing societal polarization and what Anschel calls an "existential crisis". 

In this discussion, Justin Bronk, a military aviation expert and Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, engages in a fascinating exploration of air power's future. He examines the competition between the U.S. and China over 6th generation fighter jets, revealing how these advancements could redefine warfare. Bronk highlights the integration of drones with manned aircraft, and addresses the challenges NATO faces in air defense. He also touches upon the importance of Europe developing its own next-gen capabilities to keep pace in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

In this dialogue, Professor Sarah C.M. Paine, an expert in grand strategy and the dynamics of power, sheds light on how superpowers often self-sabotage. She discusses the misconceptions and strategic blunders made by Russia, China, and the U.S., emphasizing the challenges democracies face in coherent policy-making. The conversation also explores the shifting geopolitical landscape, the historical context of warfare decisions, and China's evolving grand strategy, questioning the feasibility of coexistence with U.S. norms. A thought-provoking analysis for anyone intrigued by global dynamics.

Mark Galeotti, a distinguished Russia expert, delves into the complexities of U.S.-Russian negotiations and the implications of Putin's strategy. He discusses the unrealistic demands stemming from Russia's imperialist mindset and the potential backfire of their tactics in Europe. Galeotti predicts that 2026 will be a challenging year for Russia, citing heavy losses in the ongoing war and internal struggles within the Kremlin. The conversation highlights the nuanced interplay of cultural perceptions and economic pressures shaping these critical geopolitical dynamics.

Ed Arnold, a Research Fellow at RUSI and expert on European security, dives into Europe's evolving defense landscape. He explores why Europe's reliance on U.S. military support is waning and what it means for its security architecture. Discussing the complexities of NATO's collective defense and the pressing need for reforms, Arnold emphasizes the operational challenges Europe faces in standing alone, especially regarding threats from Russia. He outlines what a credible self-reliant European defense would entail and the political will required for significant change.