Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

In this engaging discussion, Olivier Schmitt, head of research at the Danish Defence College and a military strategy expert, examines Europe's precarious security landscape. He outlines the complex interplay of Russian aggression, rising China, and jihadism. Schmitt presents four potential scenarios for Europe's future, hinging on U.S. hostility and European unity. He emphasizes the necessity for Europe to rethink its military strategy and adapt to a reality where dependency on U.S. forces may no longer be viable.

In this discussion with Andrew Badger, a former human intelligence officer and geopolitics lecturer, the focus shifts to China's extensive espionage tactics. He shares insights on how China has skillfully mobilized its citizens and companies to steal advanced technology, fueling rapid economic and military growth. Badger elaborates on civil-military fusion, and the role of global recruitments like the Thousand Talents program. With a deep dive into the implications of these operations, he highlights the West's vulnerabilities and the urgency for countermeasures.

Shashank Joshi, Chief Defence Editor at The Economist, shares his sharp insights on the controversial 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy. He highlights its unprecedented critique of Europe and the implications of this shift for transatlantic relations. Joshi discusses the document's authorship, mixed internal priorities, and the striking absence of North Korea from the discourse. The conversation challenges listeners to consider how the strategy's aggressive tone towards allies could reshape global alliances and elevate tensions with adversaries like Russia.

In this discussion, Steven Everts, a former EU diplomat and director of the EU Institute for Security Studies, unpacks Europe's 'Psychology of Weakness' and its implications on foreign policy. He critiques the EU's reluctance to engage in diplomacy, emphasizing the need to reclaim agency in negotiations, especially regarding Ukraine. Everts argues for a more assertive European stance against external pressures and outlines practical steps to bolster support for Ukraine, highlighting the importance of unity among member states for effective action.

Chun Han Wong, a Wall Street Journal reporter and author of *Party of One*, shares his insights on China's evolving political landscape. He discusses how Xi Jinping's centralization of power has transformed governance and decision-making within the CCP. Wong explains the consequences of this shift, including the risks of policy paralysis and increasing bureaucracy. He also dives into Xi's motivations, his approach to foreign engagement, and the uncertainties surrounding succession within the party. This in-depth analysis reveals the complexities of China's political future.

Linas Kojala, director at the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center in Lithuania, shares insights on how the Baltics cope with the looming threat of Russia. He discusses the daily anxiety experienced in Lithuania since the 2022 invasion, emphasizing historic Russian aggression through tactics like cyberattacks and propaganda. Kojala highlights the region's rising defense spending, NATO's evolving role, and Germany's newfound commitment. He warns that while Ukraine's strength is crucial for regional stability, the future remains uncertain, with continued conflict or a problematic ceasefire likely.

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/This is a conversation with Gabrielus Landsbergis. Gabrielus is a visiting fellow at the Stanford University’s Institute for International Studies and former minister of foreign affairs of Lithuania - a role that he held between 2020 and 2024. Like many of his Baltic colleagues he held and holds a very hawkish view on Russia, on supporting Ukraine and on European defense and security.But what makes him unique is that he’s also extremely openly critical of European leadership on all these issues - criticizing what he calls Europe’s appeasement of Trump, weak lack of support for Ukraine and indecisiveness in facing Russia - all the while he has personal first-hand experience with the same leadership he’s criticizing. He has been in many of the rooms where the decisions and policies were made and he knows the leaders taking them. And so we discuss the ongoing negotiations over the U.S. 28 point peace plan proposal, the European response to it, what’s going to come out of it and what Europe should be doing instead. And we also talk about Europe’s geopolitical strategy or the lack thereof in general - why does Europe seem to be stuck in a strategic impotence unable to take the lead or responsibility for itself, whether it’s starting to change or how it should be dealing with America led by Donald Trump and much more.

In this conversation, Victor Davis Hanson, a military historian and senior fellow, makes a compelling case for Donald Trump as the West's 'tragic hero.' He discusses how Trump's negotiation strategies impacted NATO spending and weakened Russian influence in the Middle East. Hanson also highlights Trump’s belief in negotiating peace in Ukraine and examines the coherence of Trump's foreign policy as a push for American strength. With insights on military renewal and support for Ukraine, Hanson's perspectives challenge common criticisms of Trump.

In this thought-provoking discussion, Francis Fukuyama, a renowned political scientist from Stanford, revisits his influential work on the 'End of History.' He explains common misconceptions and discusses why history seems to be reversing, highlighting democratic backsliding and the rise of populism. Fukuyama connects this trend to the unexpected impact of social media on shared facts and democracy's fragile state. He provides insights on the challenges facing liberal democracy today and why he still believes in its endurance.

In this engaging discussion, Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and former UK diplomat, highlights Russia's shifting strategy in the Ukraine war. He argues that Moscow is losing its time advantage, prompting a more aggressive stance. Gould-Davies explores how Western support for Ukraine and Russia's economic strains are shaping the conflict's trajectory. He also critiques Putin's missed diplomatic opportunities and assesses the implications of NATO's military commitments for Europe's security.