Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/This is a conversation with Nick Hare, a former defense intelligence analyst in the UK government and a founder of a forecasting company Aleph Insights. But more importantly, he is what’s called a superforecaster - someone who is exceptionally successful in consistently predicting the future and far better at it than the average population or even government agencies and subject matter experts. It’s not about magic, instead it’s about mastering the science of forecasting based on filtering out the noise, choosing the correct information to focus on, correctly analyzing historical trends, avoiding biases and a lot more, to predict stock markets, global geopolitical events or basically anything else. It’s a fascinating field and we explain how it works, how he forecasted the Russian invasion of Ukraine or why governments and intelligence agencies fail to use these methods and tend to rely more on vibes rather than data. But more importantly, I take Nick’s exceptional forecasting skills and get him to forecast some of the key geopolitical events of the coming years that will end up shaping the world - from whether China will invade Taiwan or how will the war in Ukraine end. It’s a fascinating discussion and statistically, his answers are more accurate predictions of how these things will play out than you can find anywhere else in the world. 

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/This is a conversation with Sergey Radchenko. Sergey is one of the most insightful historians of the Cold War and Russian history. He grew up in the USSR, has spent years combing through Soviet archives, and his latest book offers a rare inside look into how Soviet leaders actually made decisions about war, diplomacy, and the use of power. But this isn’t just about history because the past in Russia is still very much alive - and understanding what drove Soviet foreign policy shines a light on what drives Russian foreign policy today.And so we talk about why Russia’s obsession with being seen as a great power still drives its decisions today, how Vladimir Putin’s worldview was shaped by Soviet collapse, and how much of his strategy mirrors what Soviet leaders did during the Cold War. We look at why Russia keeps acting like it’s still a superpower, whether Vladimir Putin is trying to rebuild the Soviet Union or what lessons policymakers can actually learn from how the West handled the USSR during the Cold War and much much more.

Robert D. Kaplan, a renowned journalist and author of 'Wastelands,' dives deep into the alarming state of global geopolitics. He discusses the chaotic instability reminiscent of the Weimar Republic and questions the illusion of linear progress in history. Kaplan emphasizes that the U.S., alongside Russia and China, faces a rapid decline, leading to increased chaos. He draws historical parallels to current international tensions, particularly between Europe and China, while highlighting the implications for global stability and politics.

In this enlightening conversation, Gregory Smith, a policy analyst at RAND, dives into how artificial general intelligence (AGI) could transform global geopolitics. He discusses eight scenarios that illustrate the potential rise and fall of nations driven by AI advancements. The implications for international relations, including the possibility of a new Cold War between superpowers, are staggering. Smith emphasizes the urgent need to understand these shifts to prepare for a fundamentally different world order.

In this discussion with Anne Applebaum, a renowned historian specializing in Russia and Eastern Europe, the complexities of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are dissected. She highlights what truly drives Putin and his unexpected decisions, including rejecting a deal from Trump. The conversation shifts to U.S. foreign policy shifts and their implications for NATO relations. Applebaum also explores changing American views towards both Russia and Europe, discussing the rise of pro-Russian sentiments and the challenges they present for democracy and international alliances.

Jakub Jajcay, a former officer in the Slovak military and volunteer in the Ukrainian military, shares his gripping experiences on the frontlines of the Ukraine conflict. He uncovers the stark contrast between media portrayals and the chaotic reality of war. Jakub critiques the perception of FPV drones, discusses the true capabilities of both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries, and explains why the anticipated counter-offensive in 2023 faltered. His unique insights offer a fascinating glimpse into the evolving nature of modern warfare and vital lessons for NATO.

John Dotson, Director of the Global Taiwan Initiative and a former U.S. Navy officer, shares his insights on Taiwan's unique defense strategies. He discusses the gap between local perceptions of threats and U.S. concerns, revealing why many Taiwanese feel less anxious about a potential conflict with China. Dotson highlights Taiwan's focus on innovative tactics, such as gray zone operations, and emphasizes learning from military strategies used in other regions. The conversation also critiques Taiwan's military training and the challenges of adapting to evolving security threats.

Ali Ansari, a Professor and founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, shares deep insights into Iran's turbulent political landscape. He discusses the transformational impact of recent conflicts on Iranian society, revealing growing disillusionment with the regime. Ansari analyzes the complexities of decision-making within the Iranian government and the vulnerabilities in its military strategy. He foresees a potential shift in Iran’s nuclear ambitions and a looming change in governance, suggesting profound consequences for the future.

In this engaging conversation, Szabolcs Panyi, a Hungarian investigative journalist, delves into the shifting political landscape as Viktor Orban faces a formidable challenger ahead of the upcoming elections. Panyi highlights recent scandals shaking Orban's government, including a controversial pardon and the resignation of key officials. The discussion also explores how the new opposition leader, Peter Magyar, is capitalizing on public discontent, and what potential changes in Hungary could mean for broader European politics.

Fabian Hoffmann, a Doctoral Research Fellow at the University of Oslo, dives into the unsettling topic of missile warfare. He highlights Russia's significant missile stockpiling in anticipation of a potential NATO conflict, raising alarms about Europe's unpreparedness. Hoffmann discusses the efficacy of Israel's Iron Dome and critiques Europe's air defense policies as fundamentally flawed. He also emphasizes the need for a strategic reassessment in light of Russia's growing capabilities and Ukraine's ongoing struggles against escalating threats.