Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl #74 Ali Ansari: Iran Is Collapsing from Within: This Is What Comes Next
Jul 23, 2025
Ali Ansari, a Professor and founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, shares deep insights into Iran's turbulent political landscape. He discusses the transformational impact of recent conflicts on Iranian society, revealing growing disillusionment with the regime. Ansari analyzes the complexities of decision-making within the Iranian government and the vulnerabilities in its military strategy. He foresees a potential shift in Iran’s nuclear ambitions and a looming change in governance, suggesting profound consequences for the future.
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Iran's 12-Day War Impact
- The Iran-Israel conflict's impact on Iran reveals national solidarity as the regime claims victory despite underlying issues.
- Public reaction shows conflict is viewed as the regime's war, not reflecting widespread support, weakening regime legitimacy.
War's Brief Boost, Steeper Decline
- Iran was already in steep decline before the war, struggling with essentials like gas, electricity, and water.
- The brief boost from the war will be followed by a sharper decline due to worsening structural problems.
Iran's Failed Regional Strategy
- Iran's grand strategy of regional influence has failed, particularly with loss in Syria and Gaza.
- Moderate voices seek policy change but hardliners resist; a complex, divided political landscape follows.