The Julia La Roche Show

David Hay, co-CIO at Evergreen Gavekal and author of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack, joins Julia La Roche on episode 111. In this episode, Hay makes a case that the odds of a recession are going up, not down, with each passing day.  The conversation dives into the bond market, exploring the shift to a secular bear market and the implications this holds for the broader financial ecosystem. Elsewhere, Hay shares where he’s allocated and why he’s mildly bullish on energy. He also points out we have a supply problem, and we’re likely to experience an acute and lasting oil shortage. Links:  Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/ Bubble 3.0 Audiobook: https://awesound.com/a/bubble-30-historys-biggest-financial-bubble Evergreen Gavekal: https://evergreengavekal.com/about-us/ David Hay: https://evergreengavekal.com/team/david-hay/ The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ Timestamps:  0:00 Welcome David Hay to the show  1:20 Macro view  2:50 Odds of a recession are going up with each passing day  4:17 Misleading data  6:30 Higher for longer’s impact on bankruptcies  7:40 GDI recession  10:45 Federal Fiscal Funding Fiasco  12:29 Structural bond bear market  15:27 Supply and demand in bond market  17:44 Hedge funds buying USTs with leverage / the basis trade  19:40 T-bills  21:26 A ‘transitory’ bond rally  25:30 The country is circling the drain  28:00 Bondholders are going to be the sacrificial lambs  29:20 Where do you want to be allocated  31:40 We’re going to have an oil supply problem  33:00 Parting thoughts

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex and author of the blog Marc To Market, joins Julia La Roche on episode 110. Chandler, who has three decades of experience in capital markets and foreign exchange, argues that the dollar trending higher since the end of the Great Financial Crisis is coming to an end. "It seems to me in the stock market, you need a new opinion, like every week or every two weeks, but the currency markets just trend for a long time. And I think that the dollar's rally is, if it's not over yet, it's nearly over," Chandler said. As of late, the dollar has been strong, but that's likely due to the Fed being more aggressive in raising rates and the U.S. economy looking better than the rest of the world. The Fed's tightening is likely coming to an end, and the economy weakening is likely to bring the dollar's rally to an end. Links: Marc to Market: http://www.marctomarket.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/marcmakingsense Bannockburn Global Forex: https://www.bannockburnglobal.com/ The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media. Learn more: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ 0:00 Intro and welcome Marc Chandler to the show 1:20 Macro view and forex market 3:30 Dollar likely peaked already 6:50 What's lifted the dollar is coming to an end 7:30 Headwinds for US economy 11:30 Dollar is overvalued 15:00 Currency misalignment creating opportunity for U.S. investors to diversify more to Europe/Japan 18:20 Recession 20:30 Government spending/ deficit 22:30 Wholesale/retail price for money 24:36 Why not let the business cycle play out? 29:27 Minksy moment? 30:30 Debt is a problem, but not yet 36:40 Biggest risk for Marc 40:36 Thoughts on crypto

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 109. In this episode, DiMartino Booth argues that the U.S. economy would already be in recession if it weren't for the government's spending. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ Timestamps:  00:00 - Welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show  1:06 - Macro outlook on the economy, discussion on job market and revisions 3:56 U.S. economy is clearly in a recession if it weren’t for government spending  6:30 - Discussion on the Federal Reserve and the higher for longer regime 9:20 An about-face for equity investors   11:46 - Conundrum for RIAs 15:22 - Biggest risk is in middle portion of commercial real estate and corporate debt 17:30 - Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and a passive investing bubble?  18:27 - Discussion on Federal Reserve's zero bound interest rate policy 22:30 - Geopolitical risks following an attack in Israel 24:30 - US deficit at wartime levels, fiscal responsibility and potential long-term consequences 26:30 - Conclusion

Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 108. In this episode, Whalen delves into what he terms a ‘Silent Crisis’ lurking within the commercial real estate sector and its ripple effects on regional banking and the broader economy. Whalen highlights the intricacies of the Federal Reserve’s policy shifts and how the central bank is slowly killing the world of credit and putting banks in a tough spot. Links: Chris on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen to the show  1:14 Big picture is the Fed is slowly killing the world of credit  2:13 Bond market is signaling the Fed is going to stop soon 3:34 Commercial real estate risk  4:18 Banks are looking at another down quarter for net income  5:30 Commercial, not consumer  6:18 New York State Assembly killed multi-family housing  9:26 A typical recession was led by consumers, but this recession is being caused by the Fed  11:24 Landlords are a small business  13:00 Silent crisis 14:50 Impact on banks  16:00 Politics need to change if NYC is going to survive  17:30 A strange economic cycle  19:22 Half the banks in the country are insolvent on mark-to-market  20:24 Banks are a fixed income trade that masquerades as an equity trade 21:30 Fed will drop rates by end of the year because of banks 22:14 Should we have mark-to-market accounting?  23:50 Housing outlook, tips for homebuyers  27:00 Parting thoughts 

Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, the founder of Sahm Consulting and creator of The Sahm Rule — a recession indicator — joins Julia La Roche on episode 107 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro and the Federal Reserve.  In this episode, Sahm noted that the economy is potentially at an inflection point, and we’ll know soon if we’re getting a soft landing or are headed in a slow grind that could lead us over the edge and into recession. At the moment, she’s in the 50-50 baseline case when it comes to recession. To be sure, Sahm is concerned about the cooling in the labor market. She noted, "Once things get going in a bad direction, they keep going.”  Throughout her career, Sahm has worked at the Federal Reserve, the White House, ad has advised Congress. She’s the creator of the  Sahm Rule, a reliable indicator of a recession based on the unemployment rate. The rule was developed as a trigger for automatically sending out relief like stimulus checks in a recession, taking the politics out of it.  Links: Stay-At-Home-Macro: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com X: https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/claudiasahm/ 0:00 Welcome Claudia Sahm  0:44 Potentially an inflection point  2:07 Labor market  3:40 What’s weighing on consumers?  6:30 Long and variable lags  10:03 Has the Fed done too much?  11:50 Risk of doing too much is aligned with the risk of doing too little  14:58 Fed’s inflation fight  19:02 Assessment of the consumer today  23:09 Great Recession  25:54 Sahm Rule  31:17 Are we in a recession according to the Sahm Rule?  32.22 Labor  36:00 Risk of a recession? 40:05 50/50 case of a recession  42:56 Housing  47:22 A decade Federal Reserve  53:00 Storytelling is the most important part of the forecasting  57:00 Groupthink at the Fed  1:01:12 Parting thoughts 

Dr. Harald Malmgren and Nicholas Glinsman, co-founders and partners of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, join Julia La Roche on episode 106 for a deep discussion on macro, geopolitics, politics, and the implications for financial markets. Links: Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/ “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf 0:00 Welcome Harald and Nicholas to the show  1:00 Harald Malmgren’s macro view  2:20 Huge debt situation worldwide, and growing U.S. budget deficit  3:30 Strong dollar, lots of disruption  4:55 U.S. Treasury Market is the ‘ultimate wrecking ball’  8:00 Malmgren-Glinsman’s call on China  10:00 Problems for the Treasury Market  11:19 Looking 3-months, 6-months, and a year out  15:00 10-year Treasury likely going north of 5  20:25 Implications of higher rates  24:19 Negative economic outlook doesn’t mean rates will come down 26:43 Stagflation/ where to invest in a stagflationary environment  37:20 Is it realistic to get back to a 2% inflation target?  42:00 When are we going to trim this fiscal monster?  43:30 The big risk today - the fiscal imbalance  49:00 Biden  53:58 Leadership  56:00 Message for Millennials  1:01:30 Hal Malmgren on political teamwork across parties  1:04:22 Parting thoughts 

Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research (www.millstreetresearch.com), an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 105. In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis. When it comes to the economy, Burns points out that the economic data has been better than expected and that inflation is headed in the right direction after the worst of it peaked last year. He doesn’t expect an imminent recession in the next six to 12 months. Instead, he expects a gradual slowdown in the economy rather than a sudden fall off a cliff. As for markets, Burns is overweight equities compared to bonds. Burns, who had been bullish stocks earlier this year amid the pessimism, pointed out that things have gotten back to more normal expectations.   Burns has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Burns worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process. Learn more at www.millstreetresearch.com. 0:00 Welcome Sam Burns to the show  0:57 Top-down, bottom-up approach to research  2:23 Macro view today 4:15 Better-than-expected economic data, inflation coming down  6:13 The balance between fiscal and monetary policy  8:14 A gradual slowdown in the economy 11:05 Worst of inflation peaked last year  14:19 Can inflation get to 2-2.5%? 16:06 Higher for longer  18:10 Not currently expecting a recession in the next 6-12 months 20:00 Consumer  22:25 Markets  25:08 Bond market  32:00 Stock market  36:40 Opportunities in the market  39:15 Traditional 60/40  41:30 Parting thoughts 

Christopher Zook, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, discusses stagflation ahead and sees opportunities in dislocated assets, particularly in energy and real estate. He explores macroeconomic views, the impact of stagflation on stocks and bonds, and the dichotomy in the market. Zook also discusses the fiscal picture in the US, investment opportunities, and the potential in commercial real estate and energy.

Wall Street Journal bestselling author Matt Higgins, author of “Burn the Boats” and co-founder and CEO of RSE Ventures — a private investment firm that focuses on sports and entertainment, media and marketing, food and lifestyle, and technology — joins Julia La Roche for episode 103 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, the consumer, artificial intelligence, and unlocking your individual potential.  Links:  Burn the Boats: https://www.amazon.com/Burn-Boats-Overboard-Unleash-Potential/dp/006308886X? Matt Higgins on X: https://twitter.com/mhiggins Matt Higgins on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-higgins-rse/ RSE Ventures: https://rseventures.com/ A quick correction: I mistakenly referred to an episode featuring Peter Cecchini in a discussion about the consumer. The episode I should have referred to would have been the most recent Larry McDonald episode (ep. 101). I apologize for the error. - Julia Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Matt Higgins  1:16 Macro view  2:29 The consumer is laboring under a mountain of debt 5:00 Housing market at a stalemate  6:03 “‘Soft landing’ is a euphemism for soft-peddling”  8:50 Valuations  10:45 Purpose of raising rates  13:12 Only way out is a reckoning  13:45 How is Matt Higgins preparing?  15:45 Bullish long-term  17:30 Greatest catalyst of wealth creation in our lifetime  20:12 Burn The Boats book  25:30 Metaphorical boats that hold you back  31:09 Career  35:50 Education system not designed to meet a student where they are  38:30 Opening up 41:30 Most important skills of a founder  42:45 Rex Ryan  46:15 Best part of the book 48:40 Parting thoughts 

Masha Bucher, founder and general partner of Day One Ventures, joins Julia La Roche on episode 102 for a discussion of the state of venture capital, investing in artificial intelligence, valuations, navigating PR, the changing media landscape, meeting Jeff Bezos, and more. https://www.dayoneventures.com/ 0:00 Intro + welcome Masha to the show 1:08 Venture capital landscape today 2:40 Decreased interest in late-stage investing, not early-stage 4:50 Investing in AI ahead of the AI boom 7:45 Robotics 9:25 Correction for generative AI companies? 11:33 Meeting Jeff Bezos 14:00 Valuations 19:00 Investment activity 20:50 Vetting companies 26:48 Public relations to venture capital 31:35 When to get a PR agency? 36:12 Changing media landscape 40:00 Exits 45:35 Meeting founders through social 48:40 Starting a VC fund