The Julia La Roche Show

Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, discusses the possibility of a 'macro summer' next year, characterized by falling rates, falling inflation, and growth picking up. He explains how tech stocks and crypto are indicating a more positive outlook for the economy, while the Russell 2000 and oil reflect a slow economy. Pal also shares his views on cryptocurrency, AI, and his Exponential Age thesis.

Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 120 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy. In this episode, Dr. Shilling predicts an imminent recession, citing key indicators such as the inverted yield curve and actions of the Federal Reserve, which is determined to curb inflation even at the risk of triggering a recession. He expects the Fed to be slower in cutting rates in the event of a recession, emphasizing their focus on ensuring inflation is under control and considering the labor market's slower response to economic changes. Elsewhere, Shilling explores the correlation between Treasury bond yields and inflation, indicating that excess supply leads to lower inflation and, thus, lower interest rates. He believes the peak of interest rates has been reached and expects a rally in Treasuries.  He also shares his investment approach, favoring long treasuries, the US dollar, and short positions in stocks and commodities like copper. He's skeptical about the potential of commercial real estate and sees it as a current bubble. 0:00 Welcome Dr. Gary Shilling to the show 0:53 Macro picture today, recession outlook  3:40 Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target  4:30 Globalization  6:30 Rates and inflation  12:18 Bond market  15:20 Hard landing  18:13 What’s ahead for the Fed?  20:00 Higher for longer? Maybe, but I’m not convinced 21:17 Winners and losers in this environment?  23:44 Oil  26:26 U.S. Dollar outlook  28:09 Agnostic on gold  29:13 Bullish on Treasuries  30:46 Housing  37:37 A contrarian?  40:27 Commercial real estate bubble  42:46 Forecasting as an art  46:00 Beekeeping  51:20 Parting thoughts 

Michael Kao (@Urbankaoboy) joins Julia La Roche on episode 119 to discuss his macro outlook, why we haven’t seen a hard landing yet thanks to the “four horsemen of economic resilience,” and why he’s favoring shorter duration assets in this economic environment.  Mike has been in the investment business for 30 years and has experience analyzing and investing in many markets and asset classes, spanning commodities to credit to convertible/capital structure/event arbitrage to distressed debt/equity investing.  Mike began his career in the commodities unit at J. Aron/Goldman Sachs in NYC in the early 90’s and traded over 25 different commodity markets and their derivatives. Mike left Goldman to pursue an MBA in Finance at The Wharton School.  After business school, Mike joined Canyon Partners, a credit-oriented hedge fund in Los Angeles, where he went on to become partner and co-founder of the Canyon Arbitrage Fund, which focused on various strategies including convertible and capital structure arbitrage as well as event-driven/risk arbitrage. After 5 years at Canyon, Mike decided to leave Canyon and begin his own investment firm, Akanthos Capital Management, LLC. At Akanthos, Mike ran an opportunistic, value-driven investment strategy that looked for “fulcrum securities” up and down the capital structure.  Mike stopped actively managing external capital in 2019 and now invests primarily for his family office and enjoys blogging about the markets and economy on Substack at urbankaoboy.substack.com and Twitter @UrbanKaoboy.  Mike holds a BS in Electrical Engineering/Computer Science from UC, Berkeley and an MBA in Finance from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Links:  https://www.urbankaoboy.com/ https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy 0:00 Welcome Michael Kao  0:51 Macro view / The Four Horsemen of economic resilience  7:43 Recessionary outlook in the “vodka-Red bull” economy  11:00 The dollar wrecking ball  15:30 The rest of the world ‘out-doving’ the Fed  19:23 Oil outlook  26:27 Portfolio construction, favoring shorter duration  33:00 Thinking about stocks and bonds 35:00 Exit strategies  41:16 Parting thoughts

Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the economy, markets, and finding opportunity in a world with higher inflation. Topics include recession outlook, inflation, bond market, allocating in a higher inflation environment, silver and gold, short-selling, and the U.S. Dollar. Rogers also shares his experiences of driving around the world and reflects on the importance of caution while traveling.

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins in-person in Austin, Texas, for episode 117 to discuss the economy, markets, life, and his new book, “Stay Rich With A Balanced Portfolio.”  With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. 0:00 Welcome Ted Oakley to the show 1:08 Macro outlook  3:10 Economic picture  5:06 Wealthy don’t mind being safe right now 8:00 Short-term treasuries  9:16 10-year Treasury  14:13 Inflation  17:15 Investor bias  20:20 Ted Oakley’s upbringing  27:04 Writing Staying Right With A Balanced Portfolio  30:30 Folks can afford to wait now  31:50 Psychology of investing  39:00 Gold  40:27 What is a balanced portfolio these days?  41:51 Every landing is hard  44:16 The small investor  46:20 The curse of second-generation wealth 

Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 116 to discuss her new book, “"Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better.”  Links:  https://www.lynalden.com/ https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6 https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ 0:00 Welcome Lyn Alden to the show  1:11 Macro picture  4:18 1940s comparison  9:04 Fiscal spiral  12:49 Inflation in Egypt  20:00 Expectations of a recession, higher inflation  23:20 Stagflationary outlook  25:30 Why is money broken?  28:44 160 currency bubbles  30:33 Why is the system so antiquated?  34:45 Self publishing  36:40 Role of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency  45:00 Gold  47:41 Bitcoin  51:30 Could Bitcoin ever be a bubble?  55:18 Role of central banks with the rise of Bitcoin  57:43 Parting thoughts 

Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we're facing an impending recession. Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist.He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics." Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a firm that manages over $5 billion for pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and others. This is the 54th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases. Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well. 0:00 Welcome Dr. Hunt 1:55 Macro picture  3:00 Corollary between severity of inflation and recession 4:50 An untenable situation for moderate/modest households  6:29 Looking under the hood of the economy  9:50 Michigan consumer sentiment index  11:55 Coordinated fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic  14:20 Law of diminishing returns  17:03 What does a hard landing look like  20:30 Another contra cyclical development in the financial cycle  23:00 A deep/short recession or long/narrow recession 26:00 Debt, demographics  29:40 US dollar  30:40 Private spending has a positive multiplier, government spending has a negative multiplier  36:06 Other Deposit Liabilities (ODL)  41:55 Contra normal developments 43:15 Discretionary monetary, fiscal policy have failed 48:30 Fed needs to move away from full discretion 50:20 Groupthink at the Fed, no diversity of opinion 54:00 Classical economist  57:00 5 phases of the business cycle  

Bob Elliott, CEO of Unlimited, discusses the macro picture, increasing odds of a recession, and the benefits of allocating 10% of a portfolio to gold. They explore the factors leading to a recession, the importance of considering a wide range of outcomes in financial planning, and the value of learning from investing experts. The speaker expresses gratitude for being on the show and encourages listeners to check out Unlimited Funds' website and follow them on Twitter for more market discussions.

Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) returns to the podcast to discuss what the Israel-Hamas war could mean for the global economy, the impact on oil prices, and the rise of antisemitism on American college campuses.   This episode was recorded on October 19.  Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.  An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:  http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards 0:00 Welcome back to the show, Jim Rickards 1:20 The big picture, according to Rickards  2:16 Horror of October 7  8:27 Israel’s response in Gaza  10:30 Egypt, Jordan unwilling to take in Palestinians  12:16 Ground invasion and logistics  13:45 A much more brutal, drawn-out and violent result  15:20 What this could mean for investors  21:00 A financial war  26:00 Greatest threat to the dollar 28:00 Ineffectiveness of sanctions  34:00 Antisemitism on college campuses 

Darius Dale (@DariusDale42), founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, joins Julia La Roche on episode 112.  In this episode, Darius presented his proprietary 42 Macro Weather Model to share his economic and market outlook. Growth in the real economy is expected to decelerate over the next 12 months, while inflation is reaccelerating.  Darius’ model predicts below-normal returns for the stock and bond markets over the next three months. It also suggests above-normal returns for the U.S. dollar and below-normal returns for commodities and Bitcoin. A key takeaway is that with so many negative indicators, cash is currently the preferred asset.  Darius also discussed the likelihood of a recession, citing that the most probable window for its onset is Q4 of 2023 to Q1 of 2024. Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, CT. At Hedgeye, Darius was the Sector Head of the Macro team and was a core contributor to the firm’s economic outlook and associated investments. t strategy views. He joined the firm upon graduating from Yale. Links:  42 Macro https://42macro.com/ Darius on X/Twitter https://twitter.com/DariusDale42 42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/42macro 42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media. Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Darius Dale to the show  1:15 Macro view using the 42 Macro Weather Model  6:50 Recession outlook  8:45 Indicators of a broader breakdown in the business cycle  13:00 Inflation was going to bottom at a level inconsistent with 2% mandate 14:30 Rethinking expectations for inflation target  20:30 Fed outlook  26:44 Higher for longer and the duration of how long  28:49 Why we could have a worse recession than investors are anticipating  29:48 Fed won’t be able to do large-scale asset purchase programs that we’re used to 30:35 Fourth Turning empirical analysis  33:55 Powell  35:50 Where are we within The Fourth Turning?  38:00 Parting thoughts