#118 Jim Rogers: A Recession Is Not Here Today, But I Can See It Coming
Nov 9, 2023
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Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the economy, markets, and finding opportunity in a world with higher inflation. Topics include recession outlook, inflation, bond market, allocating in a higher inflation environment, silver and gold, short-selling, and the U.S. Dollar. Rogers also shares his experiences of driving around the world and reflects on the importance of caution while traveling.
Jim Rogers predicts an impending recession in the US due to rising inflation and interest rates.
Rogers advises investing in real assets like commodities to protect against inflation rather than holding bonds or relying on the US dollar.
Deep dives
Jim Rogers' Economic Outlook and Inflation Concerns
Jim Rogers, a legendary investor and adventurer, shares his economic outlook in this podcast episode. He discusses the current positive outlook in the US, attributing it to the upcoming election and politicians' efforts to make the population feel good. However, he also acknowledges that the US is due for an economic setback, as it has been the longest period in history without a recession. Rogers highlights the signs of an impending recession, such as rising inflation and interest rates. He emphasizes that massive money printing by major economies worldwide will lead to worsening inflation and advises investing in real assets like commodities rather than bonds or stocks to protect against inflation.
The Impact of Inflation on Bonds and the US Dollar
Rogers discusses the bond market and its vulnerability to inflation. With the current correction in bond prices due to inflation concerns, he predicts that central banks will print more money as the economy slows down, leading to a resurgence of inflation not only in the US but globally. He explains that as inflation erodes the fixed income of bondholders, the demand for bonds decreases, pushing interest rates higher. In this inflationary environment, Rogers suggests that investing in real assets, such as silver and gold, would be more favorable than holding bonds or relying on the US dollar, which is losing credibility due to its weaponization through sanctions.
Short Selling Ban, Sanctions, and Life in Singapore
Rogers shares his thoughts on the short selling ban imposed in Korea, noting that short sellers play a crucial role in markets despite being criticized. He explains that short selling has lost popularity in recent times due to prolonged market uptrends. Additionally, he discusses the inefficacy of sanctions, stating that they usually lead to the development of black markets and fail to have a lasting impact on the targeted nations. The conversation then shifts to life in Singapore, where Rogers currently resides. He praises Singapore's success as a country and its attractive aspects such as efficiency, international community, and financial center status. He also mentions his move to Singapore was motivated by his desire for his children to be fluent in Chinese.
Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 118 to discuss the economy, markets, and where he’s finding opportunity in a world with higher inflation.
0:00 Welcome Jim Rogers back
1:18 Macro view ahead of an election
3:00 Recession outlook
4:48 Inflation
7:03 Bond market
10:15 Inflation globally
11:00 Allocating in a higher inflation environment
12:20 Silver, gold
14:13 Stocks
15:08 Short-selling
17:40 U.S. Dollar
21:34 Moving to Singapore
25:30 Guinness World Records
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