The Julia La Roche Show

Masha Bucher, founder and general partner of Day One Ventures, joins Julia La Roche on episode 102 for a discussion of the state of venture capital, investing in artificial intelligence, valuations, navigating PR, the changing media landscape, meeting Jeff Bezos, and more. https://www.dayoneventures.com/ 0:00 Intro + welcome Masha to the show 1:08 Venture capital landscape today 2:40 Decreased interest in late-stage investing, not early-stage 4:50 Investing in AI ahead of the AI boom 7:45 Robotics 9:25 Correction for generative AI companies? 11:33 Meeting Jeff Bezos 14:00 Valuations 19:00 Investment activity 20:50 Vetting companies 26:48 Public relations to venture capital 31:35 When to get a PR agency? 36:12 Changing media landscape 40:00 Exits 45:35 Meeting founders through social 48:40 Starting a VC fund

Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101. 0:00 Welcome Larry to the show 1:00 Macro picture  2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising 3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation  5:32 Stagflation  9:20 One-year breakevens  10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI 14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market  18:40 Indexing creating a bubble  23:15 Regional bank risks  27:25 Buy into capitulation selling  29:17 Economic picture today  34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade 37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)  39:34 Zombies  42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value 47:00 Shift to stagflation 50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman shares lessons and insights on his investing career, including his bet against MBIA and activist stake in Wendy’s. He discusses raising capital, learning from mistakes, the importance of optimism, and free speech on Twitter. Ackman also provides an update on the macroeconomic outlook and shares thoughts on the 2024 presidential election and the recent regional banking crisis.

Market strategist Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund with $4.5 billion in AUM, joins Julia on episode 99 to explain why the U.S. economy is likely headed toward recession. In this episode, Cecchini shares the three reasons why he’s taking a cautious stance and why it’s a matter of “when” rather than “if” we’ll see a recession. Links: https://www.axoniccap.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercecchini/ 0:00 Intro 0:57 Macro picture/ remaining in the recession camp 2:29 3 reasons why we’re headed toward recession 4:19 American consumer 5:31 Equity markets 8:34 Credit markets 12:06 CMBS, the beginnings of a repricing 15:43 Vulnerabilities 18:08 Zombie companies 22:37 Fed outlook 26:00 How Cecchini got ahead of inflation 27:50 Long and variable lags question

Rick Rule, investor with 50 years experience, talks about the macro picture, the deterioration of purchasing power, fair value of gold, and concerns around government bonds and rising interest rates.

Peter Borish, legendary trader and president of the Computer Trading Corporation, shares his macro outlook and lessons from the 1987 crash. He discusses the differences between the current economic situation and the 1970s, the importance of risk management in trading, and the impact of working from home on mentorship and connections. He also reflects on the Brady Commission, his admiration for Paul Tudor Jones, and the importance of emotional resilience in the trading business.

Michael Howell discusses the dangers in the bond market and the impact of liquidity. They analyze the recent sell-off in US Treasuries and the role of global liquidity. They explore the potential introduction of a goldback currency and its effects on the dollar. The significance of global liquidity in fixed income markets and equities is examined, along with insights on current market conditions and the recommendation to include hedges against monetary inflation in portfolios.

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, discusses her newest bestseller, 'You Will Own Nothing'. Topics include World War F, writing for the underdog, social credit, useful idiots, cancel culture, ESG, Elon Musk, housing, institutional buying, and the macro picture.

In this episode, Julia La Roche interviews Todd Gordon, a CNBC contributor known for blending technical and fundamental analysis. They discuss the challenges for traditional investment models in the new age of investing driven by semiconductors and AI. They also talk about investment potential in materials and industrials, rotation in the market, understanding Elliott wave, and the importance of active management in retirement.

Neil Howe, author, historian, economist, and consultant who is best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 93.  Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society. A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement. Links:  Twitter: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734 0:00 Intro 1:21 Generational Theory  5:00 Generations arrive in patterns  8:00 These periods of crisis come once in a lifetime 11:20 Writing “The Fourth Turning” in 1997  13:00 Fourth Turning catalysts  15:30 Sales of “The Fourth Turning” book accelerated since pandemic  16:50 The role of Millennials in the Fourth Turning  20:00 Younger people losing faith in democracy  21:18 Generational archetypes  27:43 Millennials as the “Hero”  33:40 Fourth Turning will likely end in the early 2030s  39:00 An internal or external conflict?  44:00 Macroeconomic picture and the Fourth Turning  49:00 Relationships  50:28 What keeps Neil up at night?  53:00 Optimistic about the future