The Julia La Roche Show

Jeff Sherman, Deputy CIO of DoubleLine Capital, discusses the uncertain timing and extent of interest rate cuts, the attractiveness of positive real yields in bonds, potential risks such as inflation and interest rate policy, and the need for caution in investing considering market volatility and potential economic downturns.

"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics, discusses the near-term macro outlook for 2024, predicting a soft landing. He also highlights ten interconnected megathreats that pose a slow-moving trainwreck to our economy. These threats include rising debt, future inflation, and the impact of increasing bond yields. Additionally, Roubini shares insights on Silicon Valley's collapse, Bitcoin's lack of currency attributes, and observations on trends at Davos.

Peter Mallouk, CEO of $245B Creative Planning, shares his long-term optimism due to low unemployment, emerging markets, and technological innovation. He advises against market timing and recommends a diversified portfolio. Mallouk is skeptical of cryptocurrencies and gold as investments. He emphasizes the importance of asset allocation and avoiding common investor mistakes.

Professor Campbell Harvey, creator of the inverted yield curve, discusses the economy, the Federal Reserve, and the yield curve. He criticizes the Fed's unnecessary rate hikes in 2023 and argues for immediate rate cuts. He explains the origin of the inverted yield curve and its track record in predicting recessions. He also suggests that slower economic growth caused by the yield curve may be a positive, preventing a deep recession.

Famed economist Professor Jeremy Siegel shares his macroeconomic overview, outlook for Fed's interest rate policy, probability of a recession, stock market outlook, and the importance of owning stocks for the long run. He also discusses the impact of the pandemic, outlook for the economy, performance of growth vs. value stocks, and his journey to becoming an economist and professor without taking a finance class. Professor Siegel wraps up by highlighting stock market volatility and long-term returns.

Chris Whalen, investment banker and author, discusses the impending maxi reset in home prices and potential bank failures. The commercial real estate sector faces pain, while the housing market is expected to undergo a reset. The Federal Reserve may need to drop rates and increase reserves. The US debt situation is a concern, and the release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship is unlikely.

Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the macro picture and the sovereign debt bubble that’s bursting in the U.S. In this episode, Gromen makes a case that he thinks this is the year where the consensus realizes the Federal Reserve as a “shadow third mandate,” which is the Treasury market functioning. He explains the concept of fiscal dominance and its implications for the economy, including higher inflation and a weaker dollar.  Gromen predicts that there will not be a recession in 2024 due to the Fed's focus on maintaining the functioning of the treasury market. He recommends investing in gold, Bitcoin, and industrials as these assets are likely to perform well in the current environment.  Gromen also discusses potential scenarios that could avoid the negative outcomes of the sovereign debt bubble. Links:  https://fftt-llc.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen Dr. Charles Calomiris’ paper on fiscal dominance: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2023/10/02/fiscal-dominance-and-the-return-of-zero-interest-bank-reserve-requirements.pdf Timestamps:  0:00 Introduction and macro view 1:40 The Fed has a “shadow third mandate” 3:54 Fiscal dominance and its symptoms  9:24 Realization of fiscal dominance by the consensus  14:10 No recession in 2024 21:31 It’s a new Great Depression 26:00 Investment Opportunities: gold, Bitcoin, and industrials 35:19 Avoiding the scenario 40:05 Conclusion and parting thoughts

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, shares his prediction for a 5.5% 10-year Treasury yield and its impact on the stock market. He discusses the Fed's response to inflation, the US debt situation, and the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Morgan Housel, bestselling author and partner at The Collaborative Fund, returns as a guest on The Julia La Roche Show. They discuss managing expectations, the impact of social media on happiness, unforeseen consequences, tail risks, Charlie Munger's legacy, and the writing process.

In this conversation, Julia interviews Sallie Krawcheck, the CEO and founder of Ellevest, about the economy, the role of women in finance, and the retirement crisis. Sallie shares her assessment of the economy and markets, emphasizing the importance of long-term investing and the historical growth of the stock market. She also discusses the significant impact women had on the economy in the past year and the growth of Ellevest as a platform for women's wealth-building. Sallie reflects on her initial skepticism about starting a women-focused investing firm and the importance of overcoming imposter syndrome with a growth mindset. The conversation concludes with a shared love for their alma mater, UNC, and a reminder to support and promote women in finance. Takeaways Long-term investing in the stock market has historically delivered strong returns, making it a scalable way to build wealth. Women played a significant role in the economy in the past year, defying stereotypes and embracing their spending power. The retirement crisis disproportionately affects women, who have less wealth and live longer than men. Women tend to be better investors than men, as they are less likely to panic and trade frequently. Men have a crucial role to play in advancing gender equality and supporting women's financial empowerment. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Gratitude 00:46 Assessment of the Economy and Markets 03:12 The Role of Women in the Economy 04:48 Update on Ellevest 07:33 Sallie's Initial Skepticism and Change of Perspective 10:26 The Retirement Crisis and its Impact on Women 12:48Women's Investment Behavior and Performance 16:02 Regional Banking Crisis and Risks 20:01 Incentive Structures for Bank Executives 20:48 The Role of Men in Advancing Gender Equality 23:57 Overcoming Imposter Syndrome with a Growth Mindset 25:33 Shared Love for UNC and Closing Remarks