#136 Professor Jeremy Siegel Shares Outlook For The Economy, Fed Rate Cuts, And The Stock Market
Jan 18, 2024
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Famed economist Professor Jeremy Siegel shares his macroeconomic overview, outlook for Fed's interest rate policy, probability of a recession, stock market outlook, and the importance of owning stocks for the long run. He also discusses the impact of the pandemic, outlook for the economy, performance of growth vs. value stocks, and his journey to becoming an economist and professor without taking a finance class. Professor Siegel wraps up by highlighting stock market volatility and long-term returns.
There is a 50-50% chance of a soft landing or a recession in the economy, with a mild recession expected if it occurs.
Lowering interest rates can encourage lending, stimulate the economy, and avert a cutback in consumer spending.
Deep dives
Outlook for the Economy and Possibility of a Soft Landing or Recession
According to Professor Jeremy Siegel, there is a 50-50% chance of a soft landing or a recession in the economy. However, if there is a recession, it is expected to be mild. Professor Siegel also shared his outlook for the Federal Reserve, stating that the rates are currently high enough and the need to bring them down. He believes that there is a misconception that six rate cuts are necessary for a good year, explaining that the Fed will not raise rates this year and the market's expectation of six cuts is biased. He sees a regaining of value stocks' outperformance over growth stocks in 2024.
Outlook for the Markets and Stock Market Returns
Professor Siegel expects another good year for the S&P 500, with anticipated returns between 8% and 10%. He acknowledges that the market had two stages last year, with growth stocks performing well and value stocks underperforming, but he predicts a reversal of this trend in 2024, with value stocks outperforming growth stocks. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the long-term benefits of investing in stocks, as they have historically provided an average annual return of 6.8% after inflation.
The Need to Lower Interest Rates
Professor Siegel argues for the need to lower interest rates, highlighting an inverted term structure and the consequences of not bringing rates down. He explains that lowering rates can encourage lending, stimulate the economy, and avert a cutback in consumer spending. He also addresses concerns about commercial real estate, stating that while it may suffer, it is not a time bomb that will sink the economy.
The Outlook for the Fed and Misconceptions About Rate Cuts
In terms of the Federal Reserve, Professor Siegel predicts that rates will not be raised this year and that there may be a gradual lowering of rates if necessary. He explains that the Fed Fund's futures market is biased and that the market's expectation of six rate cuts is not accurate. He emphasizes the Fed's two-sided approach, being ready to react to signs of weakness while recognizing downside risks.
Famed economist Professor Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance emeritus at Wharton, discusses the macroeconomic overview, his outlook for the Fed’s interest rate policy, the probability of a recession, the stock market outlook, and owning stocks for the long run.
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
01:12 Macro overview
04:50 Probability of a soft landing is over 50%
06:09 3 reasons to lower interest rates
10:24 Commercial Real Estate and banks
13:07 Expectations for the Fed, how fast will the lower?