The Julia La Roche Show #115 Dr. Lacy Hunt On The Impending Recession
Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we're facing an impending recession.
Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist.He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics."
Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a firm that manages over $5 billion for pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and others.
This is the 54th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases.
Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well.
0:00 Welcome Dr. Hunt
1:55 Macro picture
3:00 Corollary between severity of inflation and recession
4:50 An untenable situation for moderate/modest households
6:29 Looking under the hood of the economy
9:50 Michigan consumer sentiment index
11:55 Coordinated fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic
14:20 Law of diminishing returns
17:03 What does a hard landing look like
20:30 Another contra cyclical development in the financial cycle
23:00 A deep/short recession or long/narrow recession
26:00 Debt, demographics
29:40 US dollar
30:40 Private spending has a positive multiplier, government spending has a negative multiplier
36:06 Other Deposit Liabilities (ODL)
41:55 Contra normal developments
43:15 Discretionary monetary, fiscal policy have failed
48:30 Fed needs to move away from full discretion
50:20 Groupthink at the Fed, no diversity of opinion
54:00 Classical economist
57:00 5 phases of the business cycle