The Economics Show

Sergei Guriev, Dean of the London Business School and an economic advisor to Russian opposition figures, discusses the real state of the Russian economy amid the Ukraine war. He debates the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia and distinguishes between Putin's propaganda and economic reality. The conversation delves into how military spending distorts GDP, the impact of inflation, and public perception in wartime. Guriev also highlights the challenges of enforcing sanctions on the oil industry and the complex dynamics between dictatorships and economic stability.

Matt Clancy, an innovation economist and author, dives into the intriguing decline of productivity growth since the 1960s despite rising R&D investments. He explores whether society has become too risk-averse or if we've exhausted easier scientific advancements. Clancy discusses the limitations of traditional research funding and the need for experimental approaches to rejuvenate innovation. He also highlights the optimistic potential of AI in fostering collaboration and enhancing scientific productivity, proposing a more adventurous funding landscape.

In this discussion, Dani Rodrik, a Harvard professor and renowned expert on industrial policy, delves into the complexities of tariffs and their historical significance in global trade. He questions the rationale behind Trump's tariff policies, suggesting they may be superficial solutions. The conversation highlights the resurgence of industrial policy and the need for state intervention, especially in renewable energy. Rodrik urges a shift towards domestic innovation over international competition, reflecting on the broader political implications tied to economic policies.

In a compelling conversation, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the first woman and first African Director-General of the WTO, discusses the resilience of globalization amidst rising protectionism and the challenges US trade policies pose. She outlines her vision for engaging with the new US administration, emphasizes the importance of representation for women and African nations in global trade, and tackles the complexities of WTO governance. Okonjo-Iweala defends the WTO's achievements and advocates for reforms to support smaller nations in the evolving trade landscape.

Arvind Subramanian, former chief economic advisor to the Indian government, shares insights on India's economic ambitions. He critiques the government's investment climate, expressing concern about potential currency crises. The discussion highlights the challenges India faces in achieving high-income status by 2047 amidst declining investments and inadequate reforms. Subramanian emphasizes the importance of export-led growth and addresses the complex relationship between exchange rates and financial stability, questioning the sustainability of India's rapid growth trajectory.

Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and a professor at Oxford, shares her expert insights on industrial policy's evolution and challenges. She discusses the historical context behind industrial strategies and how they’re gaining traction amid rising economic nationalism. Javorcik explores the delicate balance between supporting green technologies and protecting traditional industries. She also reflects on lessons from East Asian economies and the importance of adaptive policies for fostering innovation.

Doug Irwin, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and trade author, discusses the significant history of tariffs in the U.S. He explores how tariffs were employed under different administrations, including Trump's. Irwin highlights Alexander Hamilton's influence and critiques the belief that high tariffs always stimulate growth. The conversation also touches on global trade dynamics, particularly concerning China's role, and the political complexities surrounding tariff policies today, illustrating how past decisions echo in current economic relations.

Andrew J. Scott, a professor at the London Business School and author of "The Longevity Imperative," discusses the positive implications of aging populations. He argues that rather than fearing rising elderly demographics, we should celebrate them. The conversation emphasizes the need for innovative policies focused on healthspan over lifespan, and acknowledges societal inequalities affecting health outcomes. Scott urges a shift in perspective towards aging as an opportunity, challenging existing pension systems and advocating for proactive health measures.

In this insightful discussion, Mariana Mazzucato, a professor at University College London and a leading expert on mission-oriented policy, argues for a revitalized role of the state in innovation. She reflects on JFK's moon landing as a model for tackling large challenges today, like climate change and pandemics. Mazzucato critiques the myth of the solitary entrepreneur, advocating for government-led, collaborative initiatives to drive technological advancements. The conversation emphasizes the need for ambition and coordination in public policies to stimulate innovation.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, shares her journey as the first woman to hold multiple top finance roles, including her time at the IMF. She discusses Europe's sluggish economic recovery from Covid-19 and the challenges of inflation. Lagarde emphasizes the need for a more unified European approach to boost productivity and innovation. She also highlights the intersection of climate change and economic stability, advocating for green investments and addressing trade dynamics amid political shifts.