The Economics Show

Minouche Shafik, an accomplished economist and member of the House of Lords, shares her insights on the shifting landscape of international aid. She discusses the UK's recent budget cuts and the potential decline of generous health and education initiatives. The conversation highlights the rise of authoritarian powers like China in the aid sector and the need for quality over quantity in foreign assistance. Shafik also emphasizes the importance of long-term policy vision, especially in addressing challenges in global health and demographics.

In this engaging discussion, Richard Baldwin, a Professor of International Economics at IMD Business School and founder of VoxEU, shares insights with Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times. They dive into the ineffectiveness of Trump's tariffs in today’s global trade context. Baldwin emphasizes the rise of digital services and invisible trade, challenging the notion of globalization's decline. They also unpack the implications of automation and AI, rethinking labor dynamics and the shift from manufacturing to service-oriented economies.

Alice Evans, a Senior Lecturer at King's College London and author of The Great Gender Divergence, discusses the alarming decline in birth rates worldwide. She and John Burn-Murdoch explore the economic consequences, including increased pension burdens and reduced innovation. The conversation reveals how changing relationship dynamics and socioeconomic factors contribute to this trend. They also critique the ineffectiveness of financial incentives for boosting fertility, advocating for a deeper understanding of societal issues like loneliness and shifting gender roles.

Sergei Guriev, Dean of the London Business School and an economic advisor to Russian opposition figures, discusses the real state of the Russian economy amid the Ukraine war. He debates the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia and distinguishes between Putin's propaganda and economic reality. The conversation delves into how military spending distorts GDP, the impact of inflation, and public perception in wartime. Guriev also highlights the challenges of enforcing sanctions on the oil industry and the complex dynamics between dictatorships and economic stability.

Matt Clancy, an innovation economist and author, dives into the intriguing decline of productivity growth since the 1960s despite rising R&D investments. He explores whether society has become too risk-averse or if we've exhausted easier scientific advancements. Clancy discusses the limitations of traditional research funding and the need for experimental approaches to rejuvenate innovation. He also highlights the optimistic potential of AI in fostering collaboration and enhancing scientific productivity, proposing a more adventurous funding landscape.

In this discussion, Dani Rodrik, a Harvard professor and renowned expert on industrial policy, delves into the complexities of tariffs and their historical significance in global trade. He questions the rationale behind Trump's tariff policies, suggesting they may be superficial solutions. The conversation highlights the resurgence of industrial policy and the need for state intervention, especially in renewable energy. Rodrik urges a shift towards domestic innovation over international competition, reflecting on the broader political implications tied to economic policies.

In a compelling conversation, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the first woman and first African Director-General of the WTO, discusses the resilience of globalization amidst rising protectionism and the challenges US trade policies pose. She outlines her vision for engaging with the new US administration, emphasizes the importance of representation for women and African nations in global trade, and tackles the complexities of WTO governance. Okonjo-Iweala defends the WTO's achievements and advocates for reforms to support smaller nations in the evolving trade landscape.

Arvind Subramanian, former chief economic advisor to the Indian government, shares insights on India's economic ambitions. He critiques the government's investment climate, expressing concern about potential currency crises. The discussion highlights the challenges India faces in achieving high-income status by 2047 amidst declining investments and inadequate reforms. Subramanian emphasizes the importance of export-led growth and addresses the complex relationship between exchange rates and financial stability, questioning the sustainability of India's rapid growth trajectory.

Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and a professor at Oxford, shares her expert insights on industrial policy's evolution and challenges. She discusses the historical context behind industrial strategies and how they’re gaining traction amid rising economic nationalism. Javorcik explores the delicate balance between supporting green technologies and protecting traditional industries. She also reflects on lessons from East Asian economies and the importance of adaptive policies for fostering innovation.

Doug Irwin, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and trade author, discusses the significant history of tariffs in the U.S. He explores how tariffs were employed under different administrations, including Trump's. Irwin highlights Alexander Hamilton's influence and critiques the belief that high tariffs always stimulate growth. The conversation also touches on global trade dynamics, particularly concerning China's role, and the political complexities surrounding tariff policies today, illustrating how past decisions echo in current economic relations.