The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

As the dust settles on that momentous election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what is known and unknown about the coming Trump administration. He talks about potential guardrails on the president-elect’s pledges and about how central banks – not least the Fed – can navigate this trickier policy environment. Plus, after another widely anticipated Chinese stimulus announcement disappoints, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explains the disconnect between what the market wants to hear from the leadership in Beijing, and what the leadership is prepared to do to support the economy. Analysis referenced in this episode:Key Issue: Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-termTrump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & Chinahttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/trump-tariffs-tech-controls-taiwan-chinaWhat happened to the fiscal stimulus?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/what-happened-fiscal-stimulusSlowdown still has a lot further to runhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/slowdown-still-has-lot-further-run

In the wake of Donald Trump’s stunning election victory, our senior economists briefed clients ahead of the New York open on its macro and market implications. In this exclusive clip, you’ll hear Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talking to Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, on the key issues around the aftermath of Election Day, including:What Trump’s policies could mean for US growth, inflation and Fed policy;How financial markets are likely to react in the coming weeks as this news beds in;The growing US public debt threat and whether – and when – the bond vigilantes could really assert themselves. Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trumps-second-term-macro-and-market-implicationsKey Issue: Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024

Ahead of the year’s big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris’ fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist Party would prefer to deal with. (Watch the full briefing here.)Plus, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory unpacks the market response to the UK Budget and explains how Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans could shape the UK's monetary policy outlook.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRegister Now: Drop-In: US election aftermath – Trump vs Harris and the state of unionhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-election-aftermath-trump-vs-harris-and-state-unionKey Issues: US election 2024https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/will-boe-start-cut-interest-rates-quickerHow worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-equities/how-worrying-surge-gilt-yields

After weeks of leaking and background briefings, Rachel Reeves finally revealed her debut UK Budget. Paul Dales, Diana Iovanel and Andrew Kenningham held an online client briefing about the Chancellor’s tax, borrowing and spending plans and what they mean for the UK economy and markets. This exclusive extract focuses on:What this Budget means for growth and Bank of England policy;How financial markets received the Budget news and where gilt yields are heading;What this Budget could mean for the UK housing market. 

Perhaps the most frequently asked question of the Capital Economics team is around fiscal risks and their implications for financial markets. There were more incoming this past week as Donald Trump looked to be doing better in the polls and more details about the UK Budget trickled out, all against a backdrop of rising bond yields. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what’s behind the rise in yields and how bond investors perceive government commitments to getting a grip on public debt in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. There’s more on the UK Budget too, with a preview of what to expect from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Wednesday statement from Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief Economist Ruth Gregory.Plus, Canada’s population could shrink for the first time in over 150 years if Ottawa’s stringent new immigration targets are met. That has huge implications for the country’s economic outlook and for Bank of Canada policy, as Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown explains. Analysis referenced in this podcast:Payrolls preview: Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strengthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/temporary-disruptions-stymie-recent-strengthWill Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-focus/will-treasury-bulls-be-able-face-down-bond-vigilantesKey Issue: What to expect on UK 2024 Budget dayhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/uk-2024-october-budgetCanada's population decline will drag down GDP growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/canada-economics-update/population-decline-will-drag-down-gdp-growth

Donald Trump says ‘tariff’ is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. That’s up for debate – but what’s less arguable is that raising taxes on imports as much as the Republican presidential candidate is threatening would be bad trade policy, according to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. He’s on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss why tariffs would hurt the US economy and the economies of its key trading partners, all while failing to achieve Trump’s objectives. Also on the show, Hamad Hussein from our Climate and Commodities team explains why reports of cooling electric vehicles sales in the US and Europe paint an incomplete demand picture, and what that all means for oil appetite.Plus, an exclusive extract from our post-ECB client briefing on the Governing Council’s next steps – including whether its last move of the year could be a super-sized rate cut. Analysis and events referenced in this podcast:Read: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured worldKey Issue: US Election 2024Read: Why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024Watch: What will follow another ECB rate cut?Read: Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rolloutData: Long-term Energy Scenario Generator

It’s a rare thing for a press conference from China’s Minister of Finance to excite quite so much, but there were widespread hopes in markets that Saturday’s briefing from Lan Fo’an would finally provide the details of fiscal easing plans that had been missing from the government’s stimulus pledges so far. Did Minister Lan deliver? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his assessment on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics and discusses what the leadership needs to deliver to boost confidence in its steering of the economy. Neil also talks about the latest flow of US data and what that signals about what the Fed will do in November and previews the coming week’s ECB policy meeting. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Assistant Economist Joe Maher talk about India’s economic rise and whether it will trigger a massive and broad surge in commodities prices, as China did previously. Research and events referenced in this episode:MOF promises more spending but scale still unclearAsia Drop-In: How far will policy easing go to support Asia’s economies?Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut?Will India kickstart the next commodity boom?RBI on course for December rate cut

Is the US facing a hard landing, a soft landing or no landing? Have stimulus announcements fundamentally changed the China equities story? How should investors trade risks around the US election?Raymond James CIO Larry Adam joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. They talk to David Wilder about the big issues in global macro and markets in a wide-ranging chat that takes in:How quickly the Fed will unwind its restrictive policy and where it will stop cutting rates;What's holding European equities back from outperforming the US; Why escalating conflict in the Middle East hasn't had a big impact on markets so far, and what could change that.Further readingRaymond James Letter from the CIO: The Great American Road Triphttps://www.raymondjames.com/trimaranadvisors/resources/2024/10/01/the-great-american-road-tripCE Group Chief Economist Note: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured worldhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/how-trump-could-erode-us-economic-advantage-fractured-worldCE: US Macro Scenarios dashboardhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/scenariosCE: China stimulus - Your questions answeredhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-stimulus-your-questions-answeredCE: Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cyclehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/latest-thoughts-r-and-where-rates-end-cycleAbout Larry AdamLarry Adam joined Raymond James in 2018 as the chief investment officer for Private Client Group. Prior to joining Raymond James, Larry, as a managing director, held the dual roles of CIO of the Americas and global chief investment strategist for Deutsche Bank private wealth management. He sat on the U.S. investment committee, the management team responsible for investment strategy and asset allocation for U.S. discretionary client portfolios. He was also a member of Deutsche Bank’s global investment committee that formalizes and establishes the global house view. Prior to being named Deutsche Bank’s global chief investment strategist, Larry was the head of the asset allocation and quantitative analysis group, the group responsible for analyzing and implementing client-specific asset allocation strategies. He joined Deutsche Bank in 1992.Larry received a B.B.A. with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1991 and received a master’s degree in business with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1993. He received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1996, the Certified Investment Management AnalystSM certification in 2001 and the Certified Financial Planner® designation in 2004. Larry has been featured prominently on CNBC and Bloomberg and is frequently quoted in well-known publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s and the International Herald Tribune.About Neil Shearing Neil Shearing is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics. He has overall responsibility for managing our team of economists and leading our research, as well as developing the firm’s products and its relationship with clients. He is also a director of the company. Neil is the first point of contact for many clients and presents regularly on the global economic and financial market outlook. He is a well-known voice within the investment community and has written articles in the Financial Times and a number of other newspapers, as well as appearing regularly on TV and radio.Prior to becoming Group Chief Economist, Neil was Chief Emerging Markets Economist, managing a team that won several awards for forecast accuracy. He also managed our New York office. Neil joined Capital Economics from HM Treasury where he worked as an Economic Adviser in various areas, including fiscal policy and global economics. He holds degrees in Economics from the University of York and the University of London and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. 

In the wake of Iran’s missile strike on Israel on Tuesday, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey and David Oxley, our Chief Commodities and Climate Economist, talk about implications for the global oil market, including: What an Israeli retaliation against Iranian oil production could mean for prices;The risks around Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz;How far prices would need to rise to threaten the global inflation picture.Further readingOil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banksNasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East

China’s leadership finally took action this week to staunch the economy’s bleeding with a flurry of stimulus announcements and pledges to do more. But will it be enough? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about whether the outlook for the Chinese economy has fundamentally shifted as a result of a news-packed few days. He also talks about what the latest European inflation data suggests about how the ECB will play its October meeting and marks the second anniversary of the Liz Truss “mini budget” debacle.Also in this episode, Thomas Ryan, our US housing lead, talks to US Economist Olivia Cross about how the market is finally shifting away from sellers, differences with what's happening in Canada and what Kamala Harris’ plans to improve affordability would mean for the US outlook.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:China: ​​​​​​​New fiscal package being lined upChina property construction correction has barely begunGermany will be stuck in the slow laneGlobal Drop-In: Are the US and Europe at risk of recession?Key Issue: What to expect on Budget dayUS Housing: Sellers lose grip on the market