The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

This is a special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics all about the themes that will shape the global economy in 2025. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stepped out of our client event in London on 4th December to talk to David Wilder about the 2025 growth story. They discussed how Donald Trump’s policy pledges will – and won’t – affect US and global macro variables in the coming year, whether creaking public debt profiles will stir up the bond vigilantes, the limits of geopolitics as a driver of the macro story and more. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next yearhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/five-25-macro-themes-will-shape-next-yearDrop-In: The World in 2025 – The global macro and market outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-world-2025-global-macro-and-market-outlook

It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect’s online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsGlobal Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respondhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respondData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyIs a bubble in India’s stock market deflating?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump’s threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who’ll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing.Analysis and events referenced in this episode: How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsCanada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line​https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-lineDrop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond

Discussion on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics attempts to avoid any mention of Donald Trump – and fails almost immediately. But Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing’s point is that there is a lot going on in the world besides regime change in Washington. He talks to David Wilder about why inflation is worrying markets, why Chinese stimulus hopes were dashed, and what Nvidia’s earnings say about AI’s potential. Plus, despite escalation in the war in Ukraine, speculation is also building about an end to fighting when Donald Trump takes office next year. Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what this could look like and its potential implications for the Ukrainian, Russian and broader European economies. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:London Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/nvidia-sign-ai-boost-us-equities-overTrump and the war in Ukrainehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-update/trump-and-war-ukraineDrop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trump-opec-china-whats-driving-oil-prices-2025

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off the plane from New York and hops onto the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to explain what Donald Trump’s cabinet nominations signal about the macro policy outlook, how Europe and China could respond to tariffs and the economic implications of removing millions of migrant workers from the US economy.Plus, as the initial, post-election euphoria in US financial markets – dubbed the 'Trump bump' – wears off, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses what lies ahead for equities, bonds and currencies. Analysis referenced in this episode:Key Issue: Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-termVideo presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/video-presentation-trumps-second-term-implications-us-economyNew market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidencyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-markets-update/new-market-forecasts-ahead-new-trump-presidencyRevising our currency forecasts to account for Trumphttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/fx-markets-update/revising-our-currency-forecasts-account-trumpData: Global Market Forecastshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/global-markets-forecasts

As the dust settles on that momentous election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what is known and unknown about the coming Trump administration. He talks about potential guardrails on the president-elect’s pledges and about how central banks – not least the Fed – can navigate this trickier policy environment. Plus, after another widely anticipated Chinese stimulus announcement disappoints, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explains the disconnect between what the market wants to hear from the leadership in Beijing, and what the leadership is prepared to do to support the economy. Analysis referenced in this episode:Key Issue: Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-termTrump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & Chinahttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/trump-tariffs-tech-controls-taiwan-chinaWhat happened to the fiscal stimulus?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/what-happened-fiscal-stimulusSlowdown still has a lot further to runhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/slowdown-still-has-lot-further-run

In the wake of Donald Trump’s stunning election victory, our senior economists briefed clients ahead of the New York open on its macro and market implications. In this exclusive clip, you’ll hear Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talking to Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, on the key issues around the aftermath of Election Day, including:What Trump’s policies could mean for US growth, inflation and Fed policy;How financial markets are likely to react in the coming weeks as this news beds in;The growing US public debt threat and whether – and when – the bond vigilantes could really assert themselves. Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trumps-second-term-macro-and-market-implicationsKey Issue: Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024

Ahead of the year’s big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris’ fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist Party would prefer to deal with. (Watch the full briefing here.)Plus, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory unpacks the market response to the UK Budget and explains how Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans could shape the UK's monetary policy outlook.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRegister Now: Drop-In: US election aftermath – Trump vs Harris and the state of unionhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-election-aftermath-trump-vs-harris-and-state-unionKey Issues: US election 2024https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/will-boe-start-cut-interest-rates-quickerHow worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-equities/how-worrying-surge-gilt-yields

After weeks of leaking and background briefings, Rachel Reeves finally revealed her debut UK Budget. Paul Dales, Diana Iovanel and Andrew Kenningham held an online client briefing about the Chancellor’s tax, borrowing and spending plans and what they mean for the UK economy and markets. This exclusive extract focuses on:What this Budget means for growth and Bank of England policy;How financial markets received the Budget news and where gilt yields are heading;What this Budget could mean for the UK housing market. 

Perhaps the most frequently asked question of the Capital Economics team is around fiscal risks and their implications for financial markets. There were more incoming this past week as Donald Trump looked to be doing better in the polls and more details about the UK Budget trickled out, all against a backdrop of rising bond yields. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what’s behind the rise in yields and how bond investors perceive government commitments to getting a grip on public debt in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. There’s more on the UK Budget too, with a preview of what to expect from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Wednesday statement from Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief Economist Ruth Gregory.Plus, Canada’s population could shrink for the first time in over 150 years if Ottawa’s stringent new immigration targets are met. That has huge implications for the country’s economic outlook and for Bank of Canada policy, as Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown explains. Analysis referenced in this podcast:Payrolls preview: Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strengthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/temporary-disruptions-stymie-recent-strengthWill Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-focus/will-treasury-bulls-be-able-face-down-bond-vigilantesKey Issue: What to expect on UK 2024 Budget dayhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/uk-2024-october-budgetCanada's population decline will drag down GDP growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/canada-economics-update/population-decline-will-drag-down-gdp-growth