The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Which commercial real estate markets are set to recover first, and where will recovery be strongest? The Capital Economics real estate team has been looking closely at the comparative performance of the US, European and UK markets to advise clients on where to find opportunities – and where painful adjustments to the post-pandemic world are likely to linger. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, CRE team lead Kiran Raichura and Amy Wood, who focuses on the European market, talk to David Wilder about their work, highlighting potential recoveries and ongoing pain in commercial real estate. They touch on the key issues for investors, including:Which regional markets and which sectors are likely to outperform and which will lag; Why a lot more distressed assets are coming, and where they’ll come from; Whether political uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic is weighing on activity. Analysis referenced in this episode:Global Commercial Property ChartpackCMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisisDistress rising, but still a long way to goHow big a threat is debt distress in Europe?

Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown discusses the global IT outage's macro implications, sticky services inflation challenges, and why central banks can't delay rate cuts. China Economics Head Julian Evans-Pritchard analyzes China's Third Plenum outcome and the economy's persistent problems. The episode delves into global inflation scenarios, interest rate debates, and projections on new normal interest rates in major economies.

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth reflects on a couple of crucial inflation reports, explaining how they’ve shifted the disinflation narrative and could even lead to even more aggressive policy easing from the Federal Reserve this year. Paul also discusses with David Wilder how his team is trying to cut through the noise around the US election to forge a coherent view of the US economic outlook in 2025 and beyond. Andrew Kenningham, our Chief Europe Economist, is also on the show to preview the coming week’s ECB meeting but also to talk through Europe’s own election uncertainty as the French political establishment continues to reel from the fall-out from last month’s legislative election against a backdrop of a worsening fiscal picture. 

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics presents our Drop-In briefing to clients the morning after the UK general election. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing spoke to Paul Dales, Ruth Gregory and Ashley Webb from our UK Economics team about the results. During this 25-minute briefing, they highlight key implications for the UK economic outlook as they address client questions, including:How much the new Labour government could increase spending;What the new government could do to boost the UK's dire productivity growth rates;Whether Labour could drive a surge in housing construction – and what that could mean for the economy.We hold several Drop-Ins each week on key issues around macro and markets. These short, online briefings are designed to get clients the analysis and answers they need as quickly as possible. See our upcoming Drop-Ins and watch recordings of previous events here. 

In the aftermath of Joe Biden’s poorly received debate performance, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the market response and highlights potential economic risks around a second Trump presidency. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and talks about the AI’s transformational promise in the wake of a sharp market sell-off in stocks linked to the emergent technology. Plus, Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team preview the coming week’s general election and discuss when we could see details on tax and spending plans from Keir Starmer’s government if the Labour government win on Thursday.Finally, as shipping costs rebound, Simon MacAdam speaks to Leah Fahy about what’s driving their resurgence and whether this presents an inflation risk.

Shilan Shah of Capital Economics talks about India's economic outlook under Modi, addressing long-term challenges. The podcast also covers US stock market bubble, UK fiscal challenges, and Chinese manufacturing impact on India.

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what’s happening in France and what that means for the bond market. He also assesses the Fed’s June meeting and previews what the Bank of England could decide on Thursday – as well as the discussing how the onset of elections could influence these institutions. (00:00-13:30)Plus, following the European Union’s announcement of plans to slap tariffs on Chinese EV imports, Andrew Kenningham and Mark Williams talk through the Union’s strategy, comparing how it stacks up against similar US measures announced just a few weeks ago. (15:54-25:22)Finally, as OPEC lashes out at IEA oil demand forecasts, Olivia Cross talks to Elias Hilmer about our own long-term forecasts for when fossil fuel demand will peak. (26:46-31:02)

The podcast discusses the future of US dominance in the global economy and financial markets, analyzing potential challenges from China and Europe. They delve into the drivers of US outperformance, the tech sector's role, and predictions on US equities. The team explores the risks to US leadership, the impact of a stock market bubble burst, and upcoming events for further analysis.

The European Central Bank is likely to become the first major advanced economy central bank to cut rates since the end of the pandemic when it meets this Thursday – easing policy ahead of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. It’s a move that’s been well flagged by ECB officials, but it’s also one that they probably wouldn’t have signalled quite so strongly given what the latest inflation data show. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Europe economists Andrew Kenningham and Jack Allen-Reynolds preview a key moment in the global economy’s post-pandemic inflation-interest rate cycle. They explain the rationale for this Thursday’s likely move and why the path ahead for easing is less assured.  Andrew and Jack also put this ECB decision in its international context, exploring the risks around lowering European rates even as the Fed stands pat. 

How important are elections for the trajectory of economies? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics explains why the just-announced general election may not be hugely consequential for the UK economy, but also why South Africa’s vote this coming Wednesday could prove momentous. In the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews key inflation data for the US and euro-zone, discusses the latest on the timing of rate cuts and talks about whether an investment frenzy in artificial intelligence is translating into productivity benefits.EM Economists David Omojomolo and Jason Tuvey are also on the show, exploring possible outcomes for South African party politics and their economic implications as the sun sets on thirty years of ANC dominance. Plus, an exclusive clip from our UK election briefing outlines some of the key issues around the July 4 vote, including the fiscal constraints that await the winner, structural reforms and this election’s potential long-term economic impact.