The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Stephen Brown, our Deputy Chief North America Economist, give their take on what Jerome Powell said to the Fed’s annual gathering at Jackson Hole. Neil and Stephen assess the likelihood of the Fed's easing cycle beginning with a 50 basis point cut, look ahead to the coming week's inflation and consumption data, and also take in Kamala Harris' nomination speech at the Democratic National Convention. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, discussed signs of improvement in China-India ties and what they mean in a global economy that's fracturing into US and China-led economic blocs.  Referenced in this episode:US Economic Weekly: 25bp or 50bp?US CRE: Time to go shopping for retail assetsWhat Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturingKey Issues: The fracturing of the global economyWeek-ahead Calendar & Forecasts

As markets have come roaring back from the recent growth scare, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to Jennifer McKeown, Capital Economics’ Chief Global Economist, about the true state of the global economy and the outlook for policy. Their discussion takes in the latest activity data from across the US, UK, Europe and China, as well as the signals from recent inflation reports, to assess the chances of soft landings and how far central banks – with the Bank of Japan being the notable exception – will go to cut interest rates. Referenced in this episode:Central Bank Hub - Our one-stop-shop guide to global monetary policyGlobal imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing - In-depth report on the new global economic fault line

Global markets appear to have stabilised at the end of a week which began with a nasty bout of volatility. But is the selling in equities over or will fears about the US economy and an unwinding carry trade trigger more pain for investors? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Jonas Goltermann, Capital Economics’ Deputy Chief Markets Economist, talk to David Wilder about a dramatic few days in global markets and what to expect in the coming weeks and months. In this 23-minute show they address key issues, including:Whether fears about a US economic recession are justified; If the coming week’s US data releases could trigger more selling;Whether volatility will settle back to pre-sell-off levels;How much an unwinding carry trade is driving volatility;Why we aren’t changing our bullish US equities forecasts. Referenced in this episode:Key Issues: A volatile summer for financial marketsData: US Scenarios dashboardData: Financial Conditions IndicesCapital Daily: Taking stock of the recent market turmoilCapital Daily: Is the yen’s rally – and all that went with it – over?Capital Daily: What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo

With that grim July payrolls report triggering fresh selling in US stocks and bond buying on Friday, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder to talk about whether there's anything to recession fears, what the Fed will do in the coming weeks and what this all means for equities. During this discussion, they touch on the key issues in the market at the moment, including:The key data to watch from here to gauge whether we're heading for a US recession;If recent data could prompt more aggressive easing from the Fed;What's left of the Big Tech-AI narrative that's done so much to drive the US market higher. Jonas will join Chief Markets Economist John Higgins for an online briefing about the US equities markets outlook on Wednesday, 7th August. Capital Economics clients can register for that briefing here.  

Chinese PMI, Australian CPI, euro-zone GDP, the new UK chancellor’s statement to Parliament, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Fed…it’s a packed week of releases and central bank meetings and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks through what will be some of the more closely watched market events. In the process, he puts recent US data in context, talks about what the Fed and Bank of England are likely to do and explains why the UK’s fiscal rules make little sense. Plus, our Japan team thinks there’s potential for the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its meeting on Wednesday. Marcel Thieliant, our Asia-Pacific head and Tom Mathews, our Asia Markets lead, discuss the inflation dynamics that could prompt the second hike of the year and where the yen is likely headed next following its recent bounce. Analysis, data and events referenced in this podcast:Data: GDP NowcastsIt’s close, but BoE to keep rates on hold for a little longerFed warming up to a September rate cutGerman debt brake to cause more self-inflicted painWe doubt this is the start of a far bigger rotation in US equitiesJapan Drop-In: Will the BOJ hike rates again before the policy window closes?ANZ Drop-In: Could Q2 inflation push the RBA to hike again?Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB, BoE – The latest decisions and the policy outlook

Which commercial real estate markets are set to recover first, and where will recovery be strongest? The Capital Economics real estate team has been looking closely at the comparative performance of the US, European and UK markets to advise clients on where to find opportunities – and where painful adjustments to the post-pandemic world are likely to linger. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, CRE team lead Kiran Raichura and Amy Wood, who focuses on the European market, talk to David Wilder about their work, highlighting potential recoveries and ongoing pain in commercial real estate. They touch on the key issues for investors, including:Which regional markets and which sectors are likely to outperform and which will lag; Why a lot more distressed assets are coming, and where they’ll come from; Whether political uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic is weighing on activity. Analysis referenced in this episode:Global Commercial Property ChartpackCMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisisDistress rising, but still a long way to goHow big a threat is debt distress in Europe?

Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown discusses the global IT outage's macro implications, sticky services inflation challenges, and why central banks can't delay rate cuts. China Economics Head Julian Evans-Pritchard analyzes China's Third Plenum outcome and the economy's persistent problems. The episode delves into global inflation scenarios, interest rate debates, and projections on new normal interest rates in major economies.

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth reflects on a couple of crucial inflation reports, explaining how they’ve shifted the disinflation narrative and could even lead to even more aggressive policy easing from the Federal Reserve this year. Paul also discusses with David Wilder how his team is trying to cut through the noise around the US election to forge a coherent view of the US economic outlook in 2025 and beyond. Andrew Kenningham, our Chief Europe Economist, is also on the show to preview the coming week’s ECB meeting but also to talk through Europe’s own election uncertainty as the French political establishment continues to reel from the fall-out from last month’s legislative election against a backdrop of a worsening fiscal picture. 

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics presents our Drop-In briefing to clients the morning after the UK general election. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing spoke to Paul Dales, Ruth Gregory and Ashley Webb from our UK Economics team about the results. During this 25-minute briefing, they highlight key implications for the UK economic outlook as they address client questions, including:How much the new Labour government could increase spending;What the new government could do to boost the UK's dire productivity growth rates;Whether Labour could drive a surge in housing construction – and what that could mean for the economy.We hold several Drop-Ins each week on key issues around macro and markets. These short, online briefings are designed to get clients the analysis and answers they need as quickly as possible. See our upcoming Drop-Ins and watch recordings of previous events here. 

In the aftermath of Joe Biden’s poorly received debate performance, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the market response and highlights potential economic risks around a second Trump presidency. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and talks about the AI’s transformational promise in the wake of a sharp market sell-off in stocks linked to the emergent technology. Plus, Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team preview the coming week’s general election and discuss when we could see details on tax and spending plans from Keir Starmer’s government if the Labour government win on Thursday.Finally, as shipping costs rebound, Simon MacAdam speaks to Leah Fahy about what’s driving their resurgence and whether this presents an inflation risk.