Trump vs the Fed, the real Stargate story and why oil prices look even shakier

Donald Trump unsurprisingly dominated the news cycle in his first week back in office. To make sense of some of what the president has pledged, threatened and suggested so far, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing was on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what we know about tariffs, how global central banks are meant to navigate this more uncertain new environment and whether the Fed is in for a particularly contentious relationship with the White House. 

Plus, the new president has already made a big splash in oil markets, including an Inauguration Day pledge to “drill baby, drill” and a call for Saudi Arabia to lower prices. David Oxley, Kieran Tompkins, Olivia Cross and Hamad Hussain from our Commodities and Climate team address the issues that Trump has raised around oil and explain why downside risks to prices have just grown.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Central Bank Hub
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/central-bank-hub

Read: Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/strong-dollar-problem-tomorrow

Event: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-unpacking-first-rate-decisions-2025

Read: What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-focus/what-make-trumps-national-energy-emergency

Read: How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/how-low-could-oil-prices-go-if-saudi-open-oil-taps